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Overview of EPS Verification Activities by the Japan Meteorological Agency

This document summarizes the verification efforts of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) at the EPS Lead Center for ensemble prediction systems (EPS) since its establishment in 2005. It highlights the creation of the EPS verification website displaying results from five global NWP centers, and outlines the basic verification processes proposed by JMA utilizing TIGGE data to support operational centers. Additionally, it mentions contributions from Matsueda-san in setting up monitoring and verification systems for TIGGE data. The latest updates and tables can be accessed online.

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Overview of EPS Verification Activities by the Japan Meteorological Agency

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  1. 1. Verification at EPS Lead Center 2. TIGGE Basic Verification by JMA3. TIGGE Verification by Matsueda-san Topics on EPS Verification Japan Meteorological Agency

  2. Verification at EPS Lead Center • WMO designated RSMC Tokyo as the EPS Lead Center in 2005. • JMA has set up the EPS Lead Center Verification Web-site (http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/) . • Currently verification tables of 5 NWP centers (ECMWF, CPTEC, CMA, KMA and JMA) have been put on the web. • JMA has been calling for other NWP centers to prepare their verification tables.

  3. EPS Lead Center Verification Web-site Open Web site: http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/ (No password protection)

  4. TIGGE Basic Verification by JMA • JMA proposed a plan for TIGGE Basic Verification using TIGGE database to support the Global EPS Operational Centers without verification system in the 4th meeting of the GIFS-TIGGE working group. • JMA has set up the TIGGE Basic Verification Web-site (http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/TIGGE/). • The verification tables of 10 NWP centers for 4 months (Aug. – Nov. 2008) was prepared with a trial. There are some missing tables because error data was included in downloaded data. The reason of error data could not be specified. JRA-25 was used as climate data. • TIGGE basic verification has been suspended because it needed much effort to continue.

  5. thorpex/xtigge TIGGE Basic Verification Web-site Password-protected Web site for TIGGE: http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/TIGGE/

  6. TIGGE Verification by Matsueda-san • Matsueda-san of AESTO working in MRI/JMA has set up the Monitor and Verification Web-site of TIGGE data (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/index.html )as a volunteer work. • The monitor shows several kinds of verifications using data from Oct. 2007 to now. It is updated every month. AESTO : Advenced Earth Science and Technology Organization

  7. TIGGE Verification Web-site by Matsueda-san http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/index.html

  8. Spaghetti diagram, ensemble mean, and ensemble spread for Z500 over NH

  9. Seasonal RMSE and ensemble spread for Z500 over NH and SH

  10. Daily RMSE and ensemble spread for Z500 over NH and SH

  11. Scatter diagram between daily RMSE and ensemble spread for Z500 over NH

  12. Seasonal-mean Z500 bias over NH and SH

  13. Blocking frequency in NH

  14. Thank you for your attention.

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