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Associate Professor Ruth Banomyong (Ph.D.)

ASEAN Infrastructure and Regional Competitiveness. Associate Professor Ruth Banomyong (Ph.D.). ruth@banomyong.com. Head of International Business, Logistics Transport, Thammasat Business School Director of Center for Logistics Research, Thammasat University. Agenda.

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Associate Professor Ruth Banomyong (Ph.D.)

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  1. ASEAN Infrastructure and Regional Competitiveness Associate Professor Ruth Banomyong (Ph.D.) • ruth@banomyong.com Head of International Business, Logistics Transport, Thammasat Business School Director of Center for Logistics Research, Thammasat University

  2. Agenda • Background of Research Project • ASEAN Infrastructure Investment Scenario (Phase 1) Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) 2 Trillion Loan Legislation • Economic Impact on Thailand and ASEAN • ASEAN Infrastructure Investment Scenario (Phase 2)

  3. Research Approach • ASEAN Logistics Infrastructure • Supply Chain Redesign • AEC & Related Scenarios Geographical Simulation Model: GSM Competitiveness Model: WEF & IMD Impact on ASEAN Economy Policy Recommendation for Government and Information for Private Sector Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 ASEAN + 3 Thai Centric ASEAN Focus

  4. Field Survey : 2012 - 2014

  5. Scenario for 2013 Study 2 Trillion baht Scenario AEC Scenario • Master plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) is a key for AEC integration. Soft and Hard Infrastructure will be developed according to this plan. Routes and conditions are updated at 2010, 2015, reflecting the development according to MPAC. • Time and costs at the border crossing half in 2015 due to AEC, and roughly double in 2020 according to congestion. • Tariff/NTB: Tariffs and NTBs are updated according to various FTA/RTA including AEC. • AEC impact is also included in this scenario • No “congestion” in 2020, reflecting the development of 2TB plan. • Ports operate at same efficiency level as leading port in ASEAN. Important route: Pak Bara and Europe • Cost/km of High Speed Train is 4 times higher than normal train, and a bit less than half of airplane. • Double traffic volume for trains by double track project.

  6. AEC and MPAC • To build the ASEAN Community by 2015, ASEAN designed a plan focused on Physical Connectivity (transportation, energy, ICT etc.), Institutional Connectivity (trade facilitation, MRAs etc.) and People-to-People Connectivity (tourism, education, culture etc.). • ERIA, ADB, UNESCAP and other International Organizations helped the ASEAN Secretariat in drafting the work. • The Master Plan was presented at the 17th ASEAN Summit in 2010.

  7. AEC Impact: ASEAN View This scenario shows the economic impacts of AEC comparing without AEC. AEC impact on overall ASEAN members GDP about 26,298 Million USD or +0.32% GDP GRDP Differences in Year 2030

  8. AEC Impact: Thailand View GRDP Differences in Year 2030 This scenario shows the economic impacts of AEC comparing without AEC. THAILAND Perspective AEC affects positively for all provinces of Thailand. AEC impact Thailand GDP about +1,806 Million USD, this resulted +0.05% of GDP in 15 years after AEC Integration

  9. Economic Corridor AEC also enhance economic growth along GMS economic corridor

  10. “2 Trillion Loan Legislation” Thailand Infrastructure Mega Project Development Project

  11. 2 Trillion Investment Allocation Source: Modified from OTP 14% 83% 1% 2%

  12. 2T Impact: ASEAN View GRDP Differences in Year 2030 This scenario shows the economic impacts of 2 Trillion Program after AEC ASEAN Perspective 2 Trillion will impact on overall ASEAN members GDP about 11,973 Million USD or +0.16% GDP (Note; AEC Impact +0.32% GDP of ASEAN)

  13. 2T Impact: Thailand View GRDP Differences in Year 2030 This scenario shows the economic impacts of 2 Trillion Program after AEC THAILAND Perspective 2 Trillion affects positively for all provinces of Thailand. 2T impact Thailand GDP about +6,561 Million USD, this resulted +0.67% of GDP in 15 years after AEC Integration (Note: AEC impact +0.05% GDP of Thailand)

  14. 2T Impact: Port Development This scenario shows the economic impacts of 3 Ports Development Project after AEC GPP Differences in Year 2030 3 Ports Project will impact on overall Thailand GDP about 3,855.3 Million USD or +0.39% GDP in Year 2030 (Note; 2T Impact +0.67% GDP of Thailand)

  15. 2T Impact: Super Highway This scenario shows the economic impacts of Super Highway Road Project after AEC GPP Differences in Year 2030 Super Highway Road will impact on overall Thailand GDP about 933.9 Million USD or +0.10% GDP in Year 2030 (Note; 2T Impact +0.67% GDP of Thailand)

  16. 2T Impact: High Speed Train This scenario shows the economic impacts of High Speed Train Project after AEC GPP Differences in Year 2030 High Speed Train will impact on overall Thailand GDP about 739 Million USD or +0.08% GDP in Year 2030 (Note; 2T Impact +0.67% GDP of Thailand)

  17. 2T Impact: Double Track This scenario shows the economic impacts of Double Track Railway Project after AEC GPP Differences in Year 2030 Double Track Railway will impact on overall Thailand GDP about 694.8 Million USD or +0.07% GDP in Year 2030 (Note; 2T Impact +0.67% GDP of Thailand)

  18. Thailand 2014 Scenario ?? Suvarnabhumi International Airport: Phase 2 Motorway Bridge over Railway Inter-country Highway 4 Lanes Road Road Rehabilitation for AEC • Dual Track Rail • Urgent - 5 Lines • Second phase - 6 Lines • New route - 3 Lines • Bangkok and perimeter Train System 3 Sea Ports Development Intermodal Facility Distribution Center Local Road Network for gateway

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