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FAA System-Wide Modeling

This document explores the complexities and limitations of system-wide modeling in Air Traffic Management (ATM) within the NextGen framework. It discusses the utility of various models, including NAS Strategy and TruTime operations, while highlighting the challenges posed by simplistic airport and terminal configurations, static en-route capacities, and environmental factors. By assessing the economic return of aviation investments and analyzing performance expectations, we aim to enhance operational efficiency and safety in high-density environments.

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FAA System-Wide Modeling

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  1. FAA System-Wide Modeling Uses and Shortfalls

  2. If we can’t model the current system, how can we model this thing? NextGen Overview • Uses of System-Wide Models • NextGen Overview • Modeling Shortcomings • ATM Domain • Airport • Terminal • En Route • Oceanic • Flow Control • Airline Operations Center (AOC) • Model Use

  3. NAS Strategy Simulator AwSim/AERALIB NASPAC SIMMOD RDSIM/ADSIM ATO Modeling Suite

  4. Cost-Benefit Analysis Development Requirements Analysis Performance Assessment Uses of System-Wide Models

  5. Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.) • Portfolio optimization The Challenge: To select an optimum portfolio of aviation investments so as to maximize the overall economic return, subject to a budget constraint. Consumer Surplus Environmental Costs Producer Surplus Government Costs

  6. Model Expectations Target - D S System Demand Performance Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.) System-wide performance assessment “The Performance Loop”

  7. 7 Solution Sets Increase collaborative ATM Increase flexibility in the terminal environment Increase arrivals/departures at high-density airports Initiate trajectory-based operations Reduce weather impacts Improve safety, security, and environmental performance Transform facilities Air Traffic Operations 43 Mid-Term Capabilities NextGen Aircraft & Operator Requirements Airport Development Capital Programs ADS-B ERAM SWIM TFM-M DataComm TMA NNEW WAAS NAS Voice Switch LAAS AircraftRoadmap 2 Solution Sets 35 OEP airports 15 metropolitan areas NextGen Implementation Plan

  8. TBO Initiate Trajectory Based Operations

  9. HiDensity Solution Set Increase Arrival/Departures at High Density Airports

  10. Flex Terminal Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Area

  11. Collaborative ATM Improve Collaborative ATM

  12. Weather Reduce Weather Impact

  13. Airport Modeling Shortfalls • Simplistic airport capacity • Single airport configuration • Convection weather • Airport closure • Departure release • Surface congestion • Taxiways • Gates • De-icing • Tail number tracking • Delay propagation • Passenger tracking • Connections Coupled

  14. Terminal Modeling Shortfalls • Simplistic terminal airspace • Airport coupling • Terminal capacity • Aircraft trajectories • Route of flight • STARs • DPs • Convection weather • Re-routing/arrival gate closure

  15. En Route Modeling Shortfalls • Static sector capacity • Monitor Alert Parameter (MAP) • Static sector definition • Response to sector overload • Re-routing • Metering • Time-based metering • Miles-In-Trail (MIT) • Convective weather • Dynamic sector capacity • Tactical re-routes • Continuous Descent Approaches (CDAs)/Tailored Arrivals

  16. Oceanic Modeling Shortfalls • Oceanic airspace!

  17. Flow Control Modeling Shortfalls • Ground stops/ground delays • Airport constraints (GDPs) • Airspace constraints (AFPs) • Strategic re-routes • Severe Weather Avoidance Program (SWAP) • Canadian Off-load

  18. AOC Modeling Shortfalls • Cancellations • Ground Delay Program (GDP) response • Re-routes

  19. Model Use Shortfalls • Ease of Set-up • Monte Carlo replication • Demand • Flight schedules • OD pairs • Equipment • Aircraft performance • Routings • Capacities/airport configurations • TFM • etc. • Visualization • Validation

  20. Questions?

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