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Understanding the Impact of Carbon Dioxide on Climate Change and Global Emissions

This document provides an in-depth analysis of how carbon dioxide levels have changed over geological time and their relationship to global climate. It explores the sensitivity of temperature to CO2 increases, the trajectory of fossil fuel emissions, and significant factors influencing sea-level rise. Additionally, it discusses the implications of the Larsen Ice Shelf collapse and the future of ecosystems affected by climate change. Key data points and projections until 2050 are presented, alongside the importance of understanding CO2 decay times and atmospheric dynamics.

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Understanding the Impact of Carbon Dioxide on Climate Change and Global Emissions

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  1. Ma Bo’er? Dan Yakir, Environmental Sciences Davidson |

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  4. Stefan Boltzman’s Law: B (Wm-2)=T4 Davidson |

  5. Black body temp -62˚C ! Black body temp -18˚C ! Black body temp -42˚C ! Davidson |

  6. CO2 declined over geological time as… Davidson |

  7. …our current mild climate was shaped Davidson |

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  10. 2 ppm/y vs 100 pm/my X20,000 natural rate ! Davidson |

  11. 2006 2005 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed 2000-2006 3.3% Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Davidson |

  12. 2007 390 380 370 360 Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) 350 340 330 320 310 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

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  15. The temperature/CO2 sensitivity question 10C /100ppm in Antarctica ~5C/100ppm global ~1C/100ppm IPPC IPCC==> ~3C in a century Davidson |

  16. 1992 2005 2003-2005 Davidson |

  17. 2005 Larsen Ice shelf collapse Davidson |

  18. 2005 Larsen Ice shelf collapse Davidson |

  19. McCarty Glacier, Alaska Davidson |

  20. Sea-level rise

  21. ~ 6 m sea level Greenland = West Antarctica = ~ 6 m sea level Total for 6m rise = ~235milion people Davidson |

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  23. Florida’s coast if Greenland OR the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melted

  24. Question of timing… Beetle “fire”… Alaska beach, 2107? Davidson |

  25. The turnover time issue: fast in, slow out… (of the atmosphere) 500 ppm CO2 = Different planet Decay of pulse CO2: 100 years => 33% 500 years => 22% 1000 years => 19% Davidson |

  26. Ma Bo’er? 500 ppm CO2 = Different planet ! Decay of pulse CO2: 100 years => 33% 500 years => 22% 1000 years => 19% Davidson |

  27. The current budget: 50% discount: Things can move much faster… 8.3 = Emission 4.0 + Atmosphere 1.9 + Ocean 2.4 Land All in billion tons of carbon (Gt C or 1015 g C) Davidson |

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  29. Fluxnet: A global project: Dry sites, such as Yatir, are greatly under represented in the network… Davidson |

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  31. The Yatir Forest Davidson |

  32. Rain (mm)Carbon (t/ha) Yatir forest: 290 2.3 (up to 3.5) Fluxnet (global): ~800 (500-2000) 2.6 t/ha Davidson |

  33. 13C derived WUE: feedback from high CO2 ? ~25% increase in WUE, in dry sites Davidson |

  34. Tree rings Back in the lab Running the show Ecophysiology Pioneer Below ground… Stable isotopes Where is the water Peace of mind The microbes and the N ISF, EU, BMBF, MOE, KKL… Davidson |

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  37. … No escape Davidson |

  38. What can you do?

  39. Net radiometer top SWRtop  LWRtop  PARt PARtop SWRtop  PARtop  Diffuse radiation Davidson |

  40. Coral bleaching Habitat loss Species extinction Davidson |

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