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SCAG Regional Travel Demand Model 2003 Model Validation Summary Report

SCAG Regional Travel Demand Model 2003 Model Validation Summary Report. Presentation to Modeling Task Force January 24, 2007. Acknowledgement.

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SCAG Regional Travel Demand Model 2003 Model Validation Summary Report

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  1. SCAG Regional Travel Demand Model 2003 Model Validation Summary Report Presentation to Modeling Task Force January 24, 2007

  2. Acknowledgement The development of the new SCAG Regional Travel Demand Model would not be possible without significant contribution from MTF agencies and MTF Model Validation Working Group on this project and the basis of this model: • 2001 Post-Census Travel Survey • 2003 Regional Cordon Travel Survey • Various Transit and Rail On-Board Survey

  3. Purpose • Brief Introduction to the new Regional Model • Year 2000 Model Calibration • Year 2003 Model Validation

  4. New Model Highlights • Trip Based Convergence Model • Covers Entire SCAG Region • Integrated Highway and Transit Networks on GIS Geography • Developed on PC TransCAD Software • Updated Major Model Components • Calibrated to Year 2000 Travel Behavior • Validated to Year 2003 Travel Statistics

  5. New SCAG Regional Model Boundary 6 Counties, 4 Air Basins 4109 Internal Zones 32 Ports and 12 Airport Nodes

  6. Highway Network

  7. Transit Network

  8. SCAG Regional Modeling Process Households by Workers, Age, Size, Vehicles, Income Peak and Off-Peak Highway Networks Additional Zonal and Cost Data Household Classification Model TransitNetworks Truck Model Socioeconomic Data by Zone External Model Airport Trips Trip Assignment Model Time of Day Model Trip Distribution Model Mode ChoiceModel Vehicle Availability Model Trip Generation Model Work Logsums Home-Based Work Strategic Trips by 3 Income Groups Peak and Off -Peak Trip Tables by 10 trip purposes with 3 income groups for work trips Trip Ends by 10 trip purposes with 3 income groups for work trips Trip Tables by 5 Trip Purposes and 7 modes Households by Vehicles Available Intermediate StopModel Existing Models Legend Input Files Updated Models Data Output Files

  9. 2003 Socioeconomic Data Source: SCAG growth forecast

  10. Population Distribution

  11. Employment Distribution

  12. Income Distribution

  13. New Model Elements • Updated Components • Four-Step Model • Trip Generation • Detailed Socioeconomic Data • New Vehicle Availability Models • Household Classification Models • Trip Production and Attraction Models • Trip Distribution • Gamma Curves of Covariant Impedance • Intermediate Stops Model for HBWS • Mode Choice • New Mode Choice Models • Assignment • External Trips Model • Akcelik Volume Delay Functions

  14. Trip Generation Model • Generate total person trips including non-motorized trips, stratified into14 trip types. • MNL vehicle availability model • Census household classification models • Cross-classification trip production models • Regression trip attraction models on household and NAICS employment data

  15. Trip Generation Trip Types • Home Based Non-Work • Shopping • School (K-12) • College • Social/Recreational • Serving Passenger • Other • Home Based Work • Direct (by 3 income categories) • Strategic (by 3 income categories) • Non Home Based • Work-Other • Other-Other

  16. Trip Production ModelHome-Based Work Direct Trip Rate Table

  17. Trip Production ModelHome-Based Other Trip Rate Table

  18. Trip Attraction Model

  19. 2003 Trip Generation Summary

  20. Trip Production Calibration2000 Travel Survey and SCAG Model Total Trips * RSA data

  21. Trip Attraction Calibration2000 Travel Survey and SCAG Model Total Trips * RSA data

  22. MNL Vehicle Availability Model

  23. Vehicle Availability Model Calibration2000 Census and SCAG Model at RSA level

  24. Vehicle Availability Calibration2000 Census, 2000 Travel Survey, and SCAG Model

  25. Trip Distribution • Calibrated friction factors by trip purpose, income group (for work trips), and time period (peak, off-peak), 28 curves in total. • Complex Gamma functions with covariant impedance • Logsum from mode choice used in home-based work direct trips • Intermediate stop choice models allocate home-based work strategic trips to intermediate stops after mode choice

  26. County to County Trip Distribution Home-Based Work

  27. County to County Trip Distribution Home-Based Non-work

  28. County to County Trip Distribution Non-Home Based Trips

  29. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  30. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  31. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  32. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  33. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  34. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  35. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  36. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  37. Trip Length Frequency Distribution

  38. AM Peak Average Person Trip Length

  39. Midday Period Average Person Trip Length

  40. Heavy-Duty VehicleInternal Trip Generation

  41. Mode Choice Model • Nested Logit models • Separate models for each trip purpose, stratified by peak and off-peak periods • Include non-motorized trips • Model transit trips by mode and access/egress types

  42. In-Vehicle Travel Time for Auto, Transit, Walk and Bike HOV time saved Distance Highway Terminal Times Transit Times Walk Access/Egress and Transfer Walk Time Transfer Wait Time(s) Transit Auto Access/Egress Time Parking Costs, Transit Fare, Auto Operating Costs per Household Income Group CBD Type Flag (Attraction Zone) Number of Autos per Person Peak Period Flag Mode Choice Utility Independent Variables

  43. Mode Choice Model Nesting StructureWork, College, Shopping and Non-Home Trips Root Auto High Speed Rail Non-Motorized Dummy Dummy Dummy Dummy Dummy Commuter Rail DA SR2 SR3+ Walk Bike Dummy Dummy Dummy Dummy Transit Walk/Walk Walk/Auto Auto/Walk Auto/Auto Urban Rail Local Bus Express Bus UR Walk UR Auto LB Walk LB Auto EB Walk EB Auto

  44. Root Auto Transit walk access Non-Motorized DA SR2 SR3+ Dummy Walk Bike Root Dummy Dummy Dummy DA Walk SR2 SR3+ Mode Choice Model Nesting StructureSchool and Strategic Trips • Home-based School Trips • Home-based Work Strategic Trips

  45. Network Assignment • 4 time period equilibrium assignments • 3 auto classes (SOV, HOV2, HOV3+) • 3 classes of heavy duty trucks • External trips from external model • Ports trips from LA and LB ports • Airport trips from airport demand model • Simultaneous assignments with transit vehicles • Transit assignments by access mode

  46. Highway Assignmentby Time Period

  47. VMT Comparisonby County and Air Basin

  48. Screenline Locations

  49. Screenline Directional Volume Scatter Plot R-square= 0.94

  50. Screenline Comparison

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