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Explore how to integrate the rate of change into emission metrics for the UNFCCC Article 2 objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. This workshop presentation from Terje Berntsen at CICERO/University of Oslo delves into constructing rate and level-based metrics, time horizons, constraints, and considerations for incorporating the rate limit of 0.02K/yr. Examples, including Manne & Richels' approach, are discussed to highlight the importance of addressing the rate of change alongside stabilization targets within a cost-effective framework. Considerations for methane and black carbon (BC) are also explored, emphasizing the need for additional value judgments and possible regulatory frameworks for short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs).
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Rate of change, how can it be included in emission metrics? Terje Berntsen CICERO/University of Oslo, Norway Workshop on common metrics, Bonn, April 2012
Rate of Change and the UNFCCC ARTICLE 2:OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Rate of Change and the UNFCCC ARTICLE 2:OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Point of departure:Keep to the cost-effective framework indicated in UNFCCC article 2 Use global meantemperature as indicator Keeptheconstraintof a long-term stabilization target (i.e. the 2°C target) Add a constrainton rate oftemperaturechange
Basic question (all metrics): When are the constraint(s) binding? Time horizon
Basic question (all metrics): When are the constraint(s) binding? Time horizon tL
Basic question (all metrics): When are the constraint(s) binding? Time horizon Rate limit 0.02K/yr tR
Basic question (all metrics): When are the constraint(s) binding? Time horizon
Construction of a rate and level based metric MR&L Level term Rate term tR=2040 tL=2070
Construction of a rate and level based metric MR&L Level term Rate term Combined and relative to CO2 f = 0.5 for t<tR and f=0 for t> tR
GWP100 MR&L for methane Manne & Richels, 2001
Summary A purely physical metric including both rate and level based constraint can be constructed Requires additional value judgments E.g. weighting factor rate vs. Level Rate constraint MR&L ≤ GWP100 in the early phase for SLCFs Alternatively Consider rate of change as a independent environmental issue Regulate SLCFs in a separate basket, could use MR as metric for this basket
