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Wake up to Vision 2010

Wake up to Vision 2010. By Arthur Goldstuck. We stand at the dawn of a new era. Everything must change. How far do you want to go in 2010?. The Age of the Vuvuzela. But first, the perils of prediction. The Gartner Hype Cycle 2002. What’s missing?.

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Wake up to Vision 2010

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  1. Wake up to Vision 2010 By Arthur Goldstuck

  2. We stand at the dawn of a new era

  3. Everything must change

  4. How far do you want to go in 2010?

  5. The Age of the Vuvuzela

  6. But first, the perils of prediction The Gartner Hype Cycle 2002

  7. What’s missing? • Acceleration factors – e.g. market crashes and regulatory changes • Retardation factors – e.g. regulatory • Business orientation – e.g. real needs • Needs orientation – e.g. real people • Strategic orientation – e.g. differentiation • What lies beyond the plateau?

  8. Hype Cycle for Networking and Communications, 2004 On the Rise • Universal Switch • AM/FM/TV Datacasting • Video Telephony • Home Entertainment • Power Line Broadband

  9. At the Peak • IPv6 • XML Appliances • Deep Packet Inspection Firewalls • Telecom Expense Management • Unified Communications • UWB/802.15.3a/WiMedia • WiMAX 802.16d • VDSL • Location-Aware Technology

  10. Sliding Into the Trough • Ethernet MANs • Cable VoIP • Network Outsourcing • Soft Switches • WAN Compression • ASPs • SIP (session initiation protocol • Video Streaming • 802.3af — Power Over Ethernet • NG Satellite • Unified Messaging • Wi-Fi Hot Spots • Bluetooth Peer-to- Peer

  11. Climbing the Slope • IP Telephony • MPLS Services • IPsec VPNs • VoIP • MPLS • GPRS • DWDM

  12. Entering the Plateau • ADSL/Cable Modem • Managed Router Services • Wi-Fi 802.11a/g • Wi-Fi 802.11g

  13. Off the Hype Cycle • Wi-Fi 802.11b

  14. And onto the bandwagon VOIP Skype SIP Software phones IP-phones Wi-IP-3G phones

  15. But first, the connectivity and e-commerce environment

  16. Internet users in SA • Last year of 100% growth: 1997 • 2000: 2 416 000 (32%) • 2001: 2 886 000 (20%) • 2002: 3 098 000 (7%) • 2003: 3 283 000 (6%) • 2004: 3.5m (6%)?

  17. Online retail in SA • 2000: R82-million • 2001: R162-million • (last year of 100% growth) • 2002: R252-million (55%) • 2003: approx. R350m (40%) • Forecast for 2004: R470m (33%)?

  18. Comparisons are deceptive Internet users with 5 years experience: • 2001: 354 700 (78% growth) • 2002: 696 620 (96% growth) • 2003: 1 266 235 (81% growth) • 2004: 1 820 000 (44% growth)

  19. Online bank accounts in SA • 2002: 815 000 • 2003: 1 060 000 (28%) • 2004: 1 400 000 (32%) • Growth rate still upward • Full online user base is target market • Online bankers can become retail target

  20. Segmentation is the key • 3.28m with Internet access • 1.2m with 5 years’ experience • 1.04m online bank accounts • Estimate: 800 000 online banking clients • Of these, half only access statements • 400 000 people conduct transactions

  21. The Shopping Gap • 400 000 conducting transactions within a walled, secure, guaranteed, policed and audited environment • Best case scenario: 200 000 venture out • In 2010, 3.6-4m will have 5 years experience • 3-million online banking customers • 2-million people conduct transactions • 1-million people shopping online

  22. Acceleration factors • Smart cards in 2010: • 25-million SIM • 20-million Telco prepaid • 20-million EMV (credit and debit) • 30-million HANIS • 6-million Pension Total: 100-million+ Smart cards in circulation

  23. Acceleration factors • Connectivity 2005-2007: • The emergence of the Voice Service Provider (VSP) • Internet connectivity gets third pillar • E-mail • Banking • Voice

  24. The consequence by 2009 • Growth accelerates • Experience curve flattens • Market explodes • Bubble returns • Fingers burn • The sooner we get over it, the sooner we can make this whole thing work

  25. In 2010, visitors to SA will see… • Beautiful roads system • World class hotels • Superb stadiums • A platform to present SA to the world • but • Protest marches over Gautrain prices • Informal settlers demanding delivery • Vigilante groups targeting Vuvuzelas • Campaign for free telephony • and…

  26. Connectivity a given • Wi-fi everywhere • VOIP built into all connectivity • Virtual Telcos competing for attention • Internet cafes will be VSPs • The secret will lie in adding value, applications and utility • and in negotiating with the Digital Chasm Action Committee • and then …

  27. Universal Communications Service • Pick up FlashTalk, your free flash drive at the airport, soft phone installed • Plug it into your IP phone • Or the nearest Smart terminal • Swipe your Smart Card • You can now use it at any VSP in SA • Voice, mail, video-messages, transactions • A world in the palm of your hand

  28. Hi-tech or ooh-tech? Don’t get hooked on the technology Think public Think business Think strategy Think reality

  29. The Race is not always to the swift

  30. You’ve got 5 years … Contact Arthur Goldstuck (011) 7827003 arthurg@internet.org.za World Wide Worx web site http://www.theworx.biz

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