CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND DRR: ISSUES AND CONCERNS

1. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND DRR: ISSUES AND CONCERNS AHSAN UDDIN AHMED Executive Director Centre for Global Change ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012

2. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 Climate Change is… Increasing the frequency and severity of some, but not all, hazards Increasing people’s vulnerability and exposure to regularly experienced shocks and stresses Increasing uncertainty and unexpected events Number of Disaster Events Reported # of events/yr Source: CRED

3. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 • ADAPTATION =REDUCING VULNERABILITY • Any approach that addresses one or more contexts of vulnerability • addressing poverty reduction • addressing livelihood enhancement/ strengthening • creating access to resources, power structure and/or infrastructure • enhancing access to food, shelter … (prior to, during and after a hazard/disaster) • reducing risk of transforming hazards into disasters • creating/strengthening access to knowledge (education/information, warning) • creation of options & alternatives

4. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 In a bid to reduce risks of transforming a (climate induced) hazard into a disaster, there can be three modalities: Reduce (level of) exposure which is responsible to cause the trouble. However, in most cases reduction of exposure is often out of ability of an impacted society. Even the USA had to face hurricane Hugo! Reduce sensitivity of the (impacted) area/community by means of implementing plans considered at meso- through to macro-scale. Example: Reducing flood vulnerability by implementing a plan that considered both structural and non-structural measures. Dhaka Flood and FAP8B Enhance adaptive capacity of the impacted community by means of gradual strengthening of livelihoods resources

5. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 REDUCING VULNERABILITY

6. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012

7. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 Livelihood Capital Assets Human Natural Social Physical Financial The five capitals Human capital - skills, knowledge & information, ability to work, health Natural capital - land, water, wildlife, biodiversity, environment Financial capital - savings, credit, remittances, pensions Physical capital - transport, shelter, water, energy, communications Social capital - networks, groups, trust, access to institutions

8. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 Enhance adaptive capacity Human capital – flood management skills enhancement, understanding on flood warning/forecasting Physical capital – having a few designated tube wells above high flood level Social capital – people are allowed to use a field which is above flood level to keep livestock and fuel, poor are allowed to collect wetland-based food items. Policy (SSN, protection...) Financial capital – having adequate money/savings to maintain intra-household food security or reconstruction of damaged house Natural capital – A highly productive wetland in the vicinity that supports a part of food security services for the poor, diversity of fish species that grow well during flood

9. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 Household/community targeted adaptive capacity can gradually be enhanced, however subsequent hazards and/or hydro-geophysical and/or socio-political realities might dampen and even negate advancements being made. Incremental (step-wise) advancements in LDCs might not be sustainable, given that the extent of climate change will be higher than what had been thought DRR through incremental inputs in livelihood capitals alone cannot perhaps bring a sustainable solution to the problem. DRR may be better addressed through change in sensitivity of an impacted area/ community

10. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 Question: Monsoon driven flood will be exacerbated in Bangladesh under CC. Which option is better for CCA? Build adaptive capacity by incrementally enhancing livelihood capitals (raise plinth height of every hh at risk of flooding) Carefully change sensitivity to flooding (planning, zoning, investment…) Question: Monsoon driven flood will be exacerbated in Bangladesh under CC. Which option is better for CCA? CBA with hh-/community scale DRR focus? CCA and DRR is integrated in all development approaches?

11. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 • DISASTER RISK REDUCTION & ADAPTATION • Eliminate/reduce risks of occurrence of disaster • Change the prevailing/projected geophysical context • Playing with extent of a hazardous event • Change sensitivity to a hazard (of similar extent) • return period modulation (e.g., excavation of a rivulet) • increase crest height of an embankment • plant early so that the system becomes resilient • increase in plinth height of a drowning homestead

12. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 • DRR and CCA: Which one comes first? • Complementarities (CC should be mainstreamed) • DRR without CCA does not make sense • CCA without considering CC-induced Hazard? • DRR-bau VS DRR-CC • The power of knowledge (when & how much?) • The analyses of changed sensitivity • The projection of changed extent of a hazard Indigenous knowledge-based responses might not work any more Careful analyses of IK is necessary to understand adaptive capacity

13. Climate Change Adaptation and DRR ECB Workshop, Dhaka, 28-29 February 2012 CCA & DRR Dealing with uncertainty DRR-CC can be investment intensive. Therefore, careful decision making is a must. Do not blame ‘uncertainty’ too much. Cost of non-action must be weighed against potential damages. Sensible investment decisions, taking into consideration (big) uncertainty vs (small) returns