Enhancing Weather Forecast Accuracy through THORPEX Global Research Program

1. THORPEXA Global Atmospheric Research Program Pai-Yei Whung Acting Director THORPEX International Program Office NWS/NCEP, August 5 2003

2. THORPEX-A Global Atmospheric Research Program An international research programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1 to 14-day forecasts of high impact weather for the benefit of society and the economy It builds upon ongoing advances within the basic-research and operational-forecasting communities It will make progress by enhancing international collaboration between these communities and with users of forecast products

3. Four Interrelated and Coordinated THORPEX Sub-programmes • Predictability and Dynamical Processes • Observing Systems • Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies • Societal and Economic Impacts.

4. THORPEX Program Structure • International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) • PR appointed representatives from 11 Member Nations • International Science Steering Committee (ISSC) • WWRP/AREP • Report to ICSC • THORPEX International Program Office (IPO) • Report to ICSC and support THORPEX international community • Regional Science Steering Committee • Asia, North America, Europe and Southern Hemisphere

5. International Core Steering Committee • Established by the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) in 2002 • Members • Canada (Chair, Dr. Michel Beland), China, US, UK, South Africa, Australia, Japan, Korea, India, Russian Federation, France and Germany • Function • Delivery of THORPEX to CAS • Sets research priorities, approves science plan by ISSC • Provides guidance to NMHSs on transition of THORPEX research and development to operations, • Identify and mobilise national and international resources to support THORPEX activities • Meetings • October 2002, April 2003 and December 2003

6. International Science Steering Committee • Established in 2002 by CAS • Membership • Australia, Canada, China, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, France, Norway, Iceland, Finland and Sweden • Function • Develops scientific plan • Guides the implementation of the programme • Provides recommendations to ICSC. • Co-chairs • Prof. Alan Thorpe and Dr Melvin Shapiro

7. Progress on the International Programme • Version 1 of the Science Plan is complete • WMO approval granted, new WMO web site • Two post-doctoral fellowships awarded under the Vaisala THORPEX Fellowship Program • Regional committees formed in NA and Asia • Chair to soon be named for the EU committee • Framework for the upcoming Atlantic experiment

8. US (Co-chair) David Parsons, NCAR Zoltan Toth, OAA/NCEP/EMC Tim Miller, NSSTC/GHCC/MSFC - NASA Team Leader Bob Atlas, NASA/GSFC/DAO John Murray,NASA/LaRC Carolyn Reynolds, ONR Joe Tribbia, NCAR/CGD Eugenia Kalnay -- U of Maryland Berrien Moore -- U of New Hampshire Dan Keyser- State U NY at Albany Rebecca Morss, NCAR – Temp appt. Canada (Co-chair) Pierre Gauthier, Met Service Canada (MSC) Jim Abraham, MSC Mark Buehner, MSC John Gyakum, McGill University Laurie Neil, MSC/Marine Canadian Societal Impacts Rep – TBD North American Science Steering Committee

9. THORPEX Observing System Test (TOST) for North Atlantic • Two efforts: • Start in Oct on Extratropical (ET) transition of tropical cyclones • Begin shift to winter cyclones in Nov, ops to mid-Dec. • 2nd planning meeting to be held on September 8-9 • Description: • Scheduled for mid Oct / mid Dec 2003 • EUCOS and other European/NA observational assets will be targeted on sensitive areas • Analysis complete by the end of 2004 • Observing Systems: • 600+ European AMDAR aircraft • 16 European ASAP ships • Additional radiosonde ascents (Canada, US, Europe) • Research aircraft - dropsondes and other measurements (Germany, US and Canada) • Additional drifting buoys (Western and Eastern Atlantic areas) • Driftsonde flights from US East coast • Meteosat 6 - rapid scan winds

10. TOST Primary Science Goals • Test ability to select appropriate cases for data targeting • Test ability to predict sensitive areas • Test ability to target these areas with additional observations • Test of new instruments potentially useful for targeting and/or future operations (e.g. driftsonde, wind lidar, etc.) • Tests, design and validation studies of proposed experimental satellite techniques • Conduct in real-time with operational centers

11. Contribution to the Atlantic TOST from Operational Centers • Multiple targeting inputs (ECMWF, UK Met Office, METEO France, NRL, NCEP) • Decision by “targeting czar” • Impact studies using ECMWF, UK Met, METEO France, Swiss, Danish, Italian, and German Met. Services, NRL (for ET Storms), NCEP

12. Additional NA Activities • North American Science Steering Committee Meeting to be held on 14-15 August at the U of Maryland • Communication established with WMO, Intl Committees, US Core Committee reps, USWRP THORPEX subgroup and IPO, web page plan • US members contributed to Intl Plan • Served on the Panel for Vaisala THORPEX Fellowship Selection • Draft of North American plan set for 1 November 2003

13. International Program Office • 14th WMO Congress (3.3.3. World Weather Research Programme) endorse the establishment of the THORPEX International Program Office (IPO) • Term of Reference for IPO was established during the 14th WMO Congress • Acting Director was appointed by Chair of ICSC with the concurrence of US PR (temp location: US NCEP) • Structure of IPO • Director and Officers are seconded by Member Nations • Trust fund (US$200K annual, Canada $30K) • The role of the IPO is to coordinate THORPEX on behalf of the members such that the overall THORPEX Programme goals are achieved • The IPO will execute the ICSC priorities in THORPEX

14. Planned IPO Activities • Organize ICSC December 2003 meeting • Potential sponsor TOST workshop in Spring 2004 • Establish interactive website jointly with WMO • Bi-monthly newsletter • Strengthen Southern Hemisphere membership • Coordinate with CBS, CAS and WCRP