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Imoh B. Obioh Atmospheric Research and Information Analysis Laboratory (ARIAL)

ARIAL PROGRAMME ON REGIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE MODELLING OVER THE NIGERIAN ZONE OF WEST AFRICA. Imoh B. Obioh Atmospheric Research and Information Analysis Laboratory (ARIAL) Centre for Energy Research and Development (CERD) Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Motivation.

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Imoh B. Obioh Atmospheric Research and Information Analysis Laboratory (ARIAL)

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  1. ARIAL PROGRAMME ON REGIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE MODELLING OVER THE NIGERIAN ZONE OF WEST AFRICA Imoh B. Obioh Atmospheric Research and Information Analysis Laboratory (ARIAL) Centre for Energy Research and Development (CERD) Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  2. Motivation • Strong Climate System Drivers • Evidence of Some Systematic Climate System Evolution – portraying “change” • Likely high vulnerability of many life support systems, and observed low capacity for early warning and adaptation • Need to: • Improve understanding of regional climate system physics • Contribute to global scientific efforts on climate change • Provide framework for mitigation and adaptation • Integrate climate change issues into national economic medium to long term planning Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  3. CHALLENGES • Low and decreasing density of (especially younger) scientists (below NVP for survival) • Poor research, auxiliary infrastructure and local financial support – increasing tendency of work-sleep approach to research • Poor network of the limited infrastructure and people – little team work approach Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  4. OBJECTIVES OF ARIAL • OVERAL OBJECTIVE • Basic Meteorology and Climatology • LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY • Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions • Air Pollution Research • CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT: • GHG Inventories • Mitigation Analyses • Regional Climate Modelling • Development of Climate Change Scenarios • Computational Sciences and Model Development • Information Sharing/Dissemination Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  5. OBJECTIVES OF ARIAL • RCM OBJECTIVE • Improved Understanding of Physical Climate System in the Sub-Region • Provision of New Data for Impact Assessment, Planning and Public Education • Human Capacity and Support Infrastructure Development • Contribution to global efforts Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  6. CURRENT RCM EFFORTS • DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES • Based on need to: • Sensibly project large-scale information on the regional scale (von Storch et al., 1993). • Estimate local climate variability from the global scale. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  7. CLIMATE OF WEST AFRICA • ITD/ITCZ (10 -20oLat): MJJAS • Monsoon winds (850 – 700 hPa) • Upper level Winds (Jets ) • AEJ (500-600 hPa) • TEJ (200 hPa) Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  8. STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING Model Output Statistics uses: Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) PREDICTORS from ECHAM • Zonal wind at 850 hPa • Zonal wind at 700 hPa • Precipitation PREDICTAND: Monthly mean precipitation data (Nigerian Meteorological Agency) Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  9. RAINFALL CORRELATIONS: ECHAM VS OBS.(JAS) • Horizontal resolution  300 km • 18 Levels in the Vertical Need to Downscale to 50 km horizontal Resolution Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  10. NIGERIA: 33 SYNOPTIC STATIONS USED IN STUDY Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  11. JAS RAINFALL AVERAGE Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  12. NIGERIA INTERANNUAL RAINFALL VARIABILITY DURING JAS Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  13. PRELIMINARY RESULTS PRECIPITATION SKILL MAP Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  14. 700hPa U-WIND SKILL MAP 700hPa 850 hPa Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  15. SUMMARY • MOS Results still preliminary, not yet satisfactory. • Appreciable skill levels obtained from model, can be improved upon • Despite poor MOS, downscaled results still agree more with Observed than GCM results in most cases. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  16. NEXT STEPS • Improved MOS for Application over 1961-2000 and 2000-2100 time scales • Engagements in Other RCM Techniques: • Dynamical Downscaling • RegCM • Improved Understanding of Regional Model Physics and Climate Sub-Systems’ Evolution • Provision of Data • Increased Human Capacity/Infrastructure Development • Sustainability of RCM and Other CC Initiatives Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  17. FRAMEWORK COLLABORATION: A KEY AVENUE TO FULFILLING MOST OF THESE Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  18. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • Canada-Nigeria Climate Change Capacity Development Project (CN-CCCDP) supported with from CIDA, through GCSI, Canada; NEST, Nigeria; and Fed. Ministry of Environment, Abuja. • International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades New York, USA • African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology Education, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

  19. THANK YOU Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, ICTP, Trieste, 26 May - 6 June 2003

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