The Future?

1. The Future? Global Trends 2035

2. 1. Big Power Rivalry? New Cold War or…

3. South China SeaTimeline

5. China’s Nine-Dash Line

6. Competing Claims

7. Oil and Gas

8. Oil Trade

9. Natural Gas Trade

10. Spratly Islands Disputes

11. Mischief ReefChinese “Naval Base” 1990s 2010s

12. Philippine Claim to the Second Thomas Shoal

13. UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982 • 12 mile limit from a nation’s coast: legal jurisdiction for the nation • 200 miles form a nation’s coast Exclusive economic rights for the nation • Dispute resolution mechanism • Direct talks between the parties. • If they fail: • submission of the dispute to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea • adjudication by the International Court of Justice • submission to binding international arbitration procedures • submission to special arbitration tribunals with expertise in specific types of disputes. All of these procedures involve binding third-party settlement • Exceptions for cases involving national sovereignty. Parties submit their dispute to a conciliation commission; results are non-binding.

14. Summer 2016:Philippines v. China in Court • Ruling by Permanent Court of Arbitration • Summary

15. 2. Interdependence

16. US Trade Partners

17. China Trade Partners

18. 3. Multipolarity

19. 4. US leadership? • United Nations • World Trade Organization • IMF • World Bank • IAEA • NATO • APEC

20. 5. Ideological Leadership Liberal Democracy vs. • Theocracy • Soft Authoritarianism

21. 6. Domestic Problems • James Moody and Peter Mucha. “Portrait of Political Party Polarization.” Network Science / Volume 1 / Issue 01 / April 2013, pp 119-121

22. Education Program for International Student Assessment rankings 2006 2009 Ranking: Reading 17th Math: 31st Science: 23rd

23. Deficit and Debt Federal Deficit (Historical Tables) (2017)

24. National Debt National Debt: the accumulated deficits, plus other incurred debt by the US National Debt Clock http://www.usdebtclock.org/

25. Who owns the Debt 2011?Federal Reserve information • US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities • Other Investors/Savings Bonds • China • Japan • Pension Funds • Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds • State and Local Governments in US • UK • Banks • Insurance Companies • OPEC nations • Brazil • Caribbean nations • Hong Kong • Canada

26. US Defense Spending

27. Defense as % of Federal Budget

28. Defense Spending as a Percentage of GDP

30. 7. Fundamental Changes? • Transformation of the Nation-state System: • Urbanization plus increased inequality • People Power or State Failure? • Disturbance Democracy • Non-State Actors • US Turns Inward: Rejects Leadership • Infectious Diseases • Climate Change

31. A1. Urbanization plus increased inequality Caracas, Venezuela

32. Mumbai, India

33. Megacities • Tokyo, Japan: 2016: 38,140,000 • Delhi, India: 2016: 26,454,000 • Shanghai, China: 2016: 24,484,000 • Mumbai (Bombay), India: 2016: 21,357,000 • São Paulo, Brazil: 2016: 21,297,000 • Beijing, China: 2016: 21,240,000 • Mexico City, Mexico: 2016: 21,157,000 •  Osaka, Japan: 2016: 20,337,000 • Cairo, Egypt:2016: 19,128,000 • New York-Newark, USA: 2016: 18,604,000

34. A2. People Power or State Breakdown? Arab Uprising 2011

35. A3. Disturbance Democracy: 1999 Battle for Seattle

36. London 2011

37. Ukraine 2014

38. A4. Non-State Actors Mapping Militant Organizations (Reference) • al-Shabab vs. Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia (and US) • ISIL vs. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (and US) • Boko Haram vs. Nigeria, Cameroon, Mali, Niger

39. ISIS’s Global Reach

40. Transnational Organized Crime:Mexico vs. Drug Cartels (2015 numbers)

41. B. US Turns Inward: Rejects Leadership Public Opinion Runs Against Syrian Airstrikes, Pre Research Center for the People and the Press, SEPTEMBER 3, 2013 Widespread Middle East Fears that Syrian Violence Will Spread, Pew Research Global Attitudes Project, MAY 1, 2013

42. America First?

43. C. Infectious Disease

44. D. Climate Change (from NOAA)