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Bisbee Economic Outlook 2012

Bisbee Economic Outlook 2012. Gross Domestic Product. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Inflation (CPI). Compared to same month previous year. National Outlook. Continued slow economic growth and labor market improvement Recovery may speed up in 2013

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Bisbee Economic Outlook 2012

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  1. Bisbee Economic Outlook 2012

  2. Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

  3. Inflation (CPI) Compared to same month previous year

  4. National Outlook • Continued slow economic growth and labor market improvement • Recovery may speed up in 2013 • Long-run inflation threat remains

  5. GDP by State

  6. The Local Economy Cochise County & Bisbee

  7. Retail Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  8. Retail Sales Recent Activity • Cochise County • 2012: 2.0% * • 2011: -1.2% • 2010: -4.8% • 2009: -4.2% • 2008: -6.5% • 2007: -1.3% • Bisbee • 2012: -6.0% * • 2011: 5.6% • 2010: 1.7% • 2009: -6.9% • 2008: -0.4% • 2007: 3.4% * Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year

  9. Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  10. Restaurant & Bar Sales Recent Activity • Cochise County • 2012: -4.2% * • 2011: -0.2% • 2010: 0.0% • 2009: 0.3% • 2008: 0.2% • 2007: 0.1% • Bisbee • 2012: 11.5% * • 2011: -8.8% • 2010: 2.8% • 2009: -6.8% • 2008: -0.6% • 2007: -4.8% * Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year

  11. Accommodation Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  12. Accommodation Sales Recent Activity • Cochise County • 2012: -16.3% * • 2011: -13.1% • 2010: 8.3% • 2009: -9.0% • 2008: 1.0% • 2007: 19.7% • Bisbee • 2012: 10.5% * • 2011: -2.7% • 2010: -13.2% • 2009: -27.3% • 2008: 11.1% • 2007: 20.6% * Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year

  13. Sales Outlook • Modest retail sales growth countywide; stabilization/modest growth in Bisbee • Restaurant and bar trending downward countywide but upward in Bisbee • Accommodation sales trending downward both countywide and in Bisbee • Fort Huachuca/defense budget will have large impact

  14. Employment

  15. Unemployment Rates * Jan-Oct only; seasonally adjusted

  16. Monthly Unemployment Rates Seasonally adjusted

  17. Cochise CountyNonfarm Job Growth Compared to same month previous year

  18. Cochise CountyJob Gains/Losses By Industry 12 months ended October 2012 * Includes mining

  19. Cochise CountyJob Growth Rate By Industry 12 months ended October 2012 * Includes mining

  20. Employment Outlook Local labor market improvement sluggish Continued slow improvement likely Blips along the way Fort Huachuca/defense budget will have large impact

  21. Housing and Real Estate

  22. Cochise county New Home Construction Single Family Residential Building Permits * Projected

  23. Home Sales * Projected

  24. Median Home Price * Jan-Sep only

  25. Outlook • New residential construction still declining countywide • Bisbee historically has had low levels of new residential construction • Boost to sales volume from foreclosures/ lower prices/lower interest rates • Foreclosures appear to be clearing

  26. Conclusion Moving in the right direction, but slowly Local retail sales show promise Accommodation continues to struggle countywide and in Bisbee Restaurant and bar trending downward countywide but upward in Bisbee Countywide, defense spending cuts pose largest threat Labor market improvement slow Home sales picking up, construction stalled

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