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Challenge: Complexity and Fragility

The SFI CSSS 2011 Complexity Challenge explores the unintended consequences of our sophisticated socio-technical systems, emphasizing the hidden fragility arising from their complexity. It addresses key issues regarding our capacity to understand and predict these systems and the social dynamics that shape them. By examining examples like air travel and the US banking industry, the challenge defines crucial concepts like failure, fragility, robustness, and resilience to foster a deeper understanding of systemic risks and emergent behaviors in modern society.

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Challenge: Complexity and Fragility

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  1. SFI CSSS 2011Complexity Challenge Challenge: Complexity and Fragility Ryan Baird, Chris Glazner, Michael Lightfoot,Frances Moore, Shweta Singh, Lydia Smith, Miles Townes, Jason Veneman, Nini Zhang

  2. Short-term survival and an exuberant plunge into building our future are generating a new kind of unintended consequence—hidden fragility. This is a direct effect of the sophistication and structural complexity of the socio-technical systems humans create. It is inevitable. And so the challenge is.. How much can we understand and predict about these systems and about the social dynamics that lead to their construction? The Challenge: SFI CSSS 2011Complexity Challenge

  3. SFI CSSS 2011Complexity Challenge Example: Air Travel(Passenger Miles Traveled per month, January 1996 to March 2011)

  4. SFI CSSS 2011Complexity Challenge Example: US Banking Industry

  5. SFI CSSS 2011Complexity Challenge Some basic concepts.... Socio-technical systems combine technological knowledge and social environment. Complex systems consist of multiple components, each component active in different domains and structured in its own right, interconnected in ways that lead to emergent collective behaviors and spontaneous architectural re-organization.

  6. SFI CSSS 2011Complexity Challenge More concepts... Failure: a significant, systemic loss of function Fragility: sensitivity to failure. Robustness: resistance to failure. Resilience: capacity to recover from failure.

  7. SFI CSSS 2011Complexity Challenge Example, again: Banking Crisis

  8. SFI CSSS 2011Complexity Challenge -Dave Ackley, 2011

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