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Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation

Use of Hybrid Plume/Grid Modeling and the St. Louis Super Site Data to Model PM 2.5 Concentrations in the St. Louis Area. Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation Jay Turner and Jennifer Garlock Washington University.

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Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation

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  1. Use of Hybrid Plume/Grid Modeling and the St. Louis Super Site Data to Model PM2.5 Concentrations in the St. Louis Area Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation Jay Turner and Jennifer Garlock Washington University

  2. St. Louis 2003-2005 Annual PM2.5 Design Values – Two Sites Violate the NAAQS of 15.0 μg/m3: Granite City (17.0 μg/m3) and East St. Louis (15.5 μg/m3)

  3. 36/12 km Modeling Grid MM5 Meteorological Model SMOKE Emissions Model CMAQ & CAMx photochemical grid models Model Performance Evaluation Initially with Routine STN and FRM Networks More Detailed with St. Louis Super Site PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) 2009 PM2.5 Design Value Projections St. Louis Regional PM2.5 Modeling

  4. St. Louis Regional 36/12 km grid CMAQ V4.5 SOAmods Boundary Conditions (BCs) for 36 km Domain from VISTAS Continental U.S. 36 km CMAQ Simulations (Whose BCs in turn were from a 2002 GEOS-CHEM global chemistry model simulation)

  5. = STN Site

  6. CMAQ 2002 Annual PM2.5 Constituents PM2.5 [mg/m3] Overestimation of “Other” PM2.5 – traced to overstated fugitive dust sources SO4, NO3, NH4 and EC performance good. OA performance poor

  7. Alton Arnold Blair CAP SO4: Good Agreement Both CMAQ (FB = -12% to -21%) and CAMx (FB = +3% to +6%). Some localized spikes not captured (note: spike on day 185 @ StL SS is due to July 4 fireworks not in inventory) StL SS

  8. Alton Arnold Blair CAP StL SS OMC: Mostly Under-Estimated CMAQ (FB = -68% to -89%) and CAMx (FB = -55% to -88%) both systematic under-prediction

  9. 2009 Projected PM2.5 Design Values MDNR STL 2002 Design Value (Left) and 2009 CAMx Base4 12k projected DVF (Middle Left) and 2009 CMAQ Base4 12k projected DVF (Middle Right) and 2009 CMAQ BaseG2 12k projected DVF (Right) 20 18 16 14 PBW NH4 12 Crustal 10 ug/m3 EC OC 8 NO3 SO4 6 4 2 0 Alton Arnold Clayton Blair St. Swansea Ferguson West Alton Granite City Wood River Sunset Hills S. Broadway Tilden City Margaretta 2nd & Mound East St. Louis STL

  10. PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT) -- Granite City 2009 PM2.5: Source Categories by Species  Overstated fugitive dust emissions

  11. Granite City 2009 PSAT: Species by Source Categories

  12. Granite City 2009 PSAT: Source Regions by Categories

  13. PMF Source Apportionment Modeling using StL-SS data. Combined PMF Factor Analysis for Industrial Source#1 Factor with Wind Direction at StL-SS Shows Large Contribution from Granite City Steel Works Direction

  14. Wind Analysis of Local vs. Regional PM2.5 Concentrations at Granite City Monitor (B) Identifies GCW Steel Mill & Coke Ovens as Local Contributor

  15. CMAQ/CAMx 36/12 km Modeling Insufficient to Capture Local Contributions – Need Enhanced Approach: Use hybrid Plume/Grid modeling approach with AERMOD/ISC Local and CMAQ/CAMx: Problems with mixing modeling results as CMAQ/CAMx designed to be accurate, AERMOD/ISC designed to be conservative. Use Grid Model with Plume-in-Grid (PiG) for local-scale sources: 12 km grid still very course for sources not treated with PiG. Use CMAQ/CAMx with finer grids: For example 36/12/4/1.33 km, however even 1.33 km may be insufficient to model local source impacts at Granite City Use combined CMAQ/CAMx finer grids with PiG for local sources: Combines best features of (2) and (3) without problems of (1).  Decision to proceed with high resolution grid with PiG model (Option 4). St. Louis PM2.5: Regional and Local Problem

  16. Preliminary 36/12/4/1 km CAMx modeling   Even 1 km grid insufficient to capture separation between Granite City sources and monitoring sites (shown are CAMx annual average 1 km model estimates)

  17. Global-Scale: GEOS-CHEM provided BCs to Inter RPO USA Domain Continental-Scale: VISTAS 36 km CMAQ simulations Regional-Scale: 36/12 km CMAQ/CAMx modeling of StL regional-scale domain Urban-Scale: CAMx 12/4/1.33 km two-way nesting Local-Scale: 1.33 km and finer? plus Plume-in-Grid with CAMx two-way 12/4/1.33/0.444 km grids St. Louis Hybrid Multi-Scale PM Modeling Approach

  18. Secondary Order Closure (SOC) horizontal and vertical diffusion* Full ozone and PM chemistry using Incremental Chemistry approach* Subgrid-scale sampling receptors Releases to grid model when size permits * Adapted from SCICHEM model CAMx V4.5 Plume-in-Grid Module

  19. Testing of Urban- and Local-Scale 12/4/1.33 km CAMx modeling Feasibility of finer (444 m) grids Use of PiG subgrid-scale puff model Updated 2002 and 2012 emissions and modeling for Regional-scale CMAQ/CAMx 36/12 km and Local-Scale 12/4/1 km CAMx modeling Comprehensive model performance evaluation using St. Louis Super Site, STN and FRM data 2012 PM2.5 Design Value projections Control strategy development and modeling Final documentation for PM2.5 SIP due April 2008 St. Louis PM2.5 SIP Modeling – Next Steps

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