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CASC 20 th Anniversary MegaFlops to ExaPlops

CASC 20 th Anniversary MegaFlops to ExaPlops. Washington D.C. Wednesday September 23, 2009. The Story Line…. Who is P&G? Why does P&G need HPC? Background on P&G HPC Capability P&G’s Journey to creating Shareholder value with HPC MegaFlop Era TeraFlop Era …and Beyond.

philip-bennett
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CASC 20 th Anniversary MegaFlops to ExaPlops

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  1. CASC 20th AnniversaryMegaFlops to ExaPlops Washington D.C. Wednesday September 23, 2009

  2. The Story Line… • Who is P&G? • Why does P&G need HPC? • Background on P&G HPC Capability • P&G’s Journey to creating Shareholder value with HPC • MegaFlop Era • TeraFlop Era • …and Beyond

  3. Investors Know P&G By… • Sales: $79 Billion FY June 30th, 2009 • Net Earnings: $13.4 Billion • the Worlds largest Consumer Goods Company • Market Cap ~ 167 billion COB Tuesday 9/22/09. • Three billion times a day, P&G brands touch the lives of people around the world • P&G builds lasting shareholder value • P&G has paid Dividends (without interruption) since 1890 • 53 consecutive years of increasing dividend payments. • Invest over $2.2 Billion/yr in R&D • 28 R&D Centers in 10 countries on 4 continents.

  4. Consumers Know Us by… 300+ World Brands… Snacks, & Pet Care Blades & Razors Beauty Health Care Fabric Care & Home Care Baby Care & Family Care Duracell & Braun

  5. 23 Billion $ Brands… Snacks, Coffee & Pet Care Blades & Razors Beauty Health Care Fabric Care & Home Care Baby Care & Family Care Duracell & Braun

  6. Materials … strong but soft—even wet, stretch not break, breath but contain, break…not tear. • Liquids … mixtures can’t separate, dispense easily… but stay where applied. • Packages … creative design is key, strong but light, never leak but open easily. 2nd moment of Truth • Products must perform as expected (advertised) when used. • Performance … leveraging Fundamental Science & Engineering Contradictions.

  7. We make billions of products a year… And sell them for < $10 ! Scale: Sell a Billion $

  8. Innovation Cycle Build it Design it • Fly it “Learning” Loop • Crash it Products are not innovative: • Fix it Outcomes • Costs too much: • -One-time-use Equipment • -Testing Infrastructure • Takes too long: • -Cycles of Prototypes • -Development is Sequential

  9. The HPC Business Rationale • Replace ‘Slow & Expensive’ learning Cycles with ‘Faster & Cheaper’ Virtual ones. • Perceived Barrier to do this: • Is the Virtual REAL Enough? • HPC enables the pursuit of the necessary realism to shape decisions.

  10. Product/ Device/ Package Process Mechanical & Converting Supply Chain Through-put & Reliability …Atoms to the Enterprise

  11. M&S Work Process 1. Solve Equations 2. Build Simulation Define Problem Gather Input Data Solve Equations Display & Validate Consumer, Reliability Material Properties, Geometry etc. Shape Decisions Display results For non-expert understanding Apply & Deploy: -reframe the question -guide the choices -confirm the situation -stop the project What if ? , Why not ?, How much?.... 1. Translate Business Challenge into Science question 2. Express Science in Equations The modeling process is an iterative one

  12. Spontaneous vesicle formation Modeling of formulations shows the spontaneous formation of vesicles. 10 nm Vesicles… Attempted fusion of two vesicles (cross section).

  13. Diaper Trim Removal

  14. Make a 109 Pringles? How long does it Take to make a BillionPringles?

  15. Make a Billion Pringles… …Aerodynamics are Relevant

  16. Liquid Bottle Drop What You Don’t In WalMart Or Your Laundry Room!

  17. FSI Simulation Material Properties Are The Key To Predicting Reality!

  18. ‘Moore’s Law’ U.S. DOE/NSF ‘Leadership’ Class Machines Petaflops 1015 Teraflops 1012 P&G’s 1st, 2nd, & 3rd Generations 1990 2000 2010 Computing Hardware Performance ‘peta-Scale’ SNL ‘Red Storm’ LLNL ASCI ‘White’ LANL “Blue Mountain” Gigaflops Megaflops Kilaflops

  19. P&G HPC Cost/CPU-hr T E R A F L O P S $1.50 25 20 $1.00 15 10 $0.50 5 $0.25 $0.15 1 2003 2004-07 2008 2010

  20. …How do we USE the Power Defines the option space ‘where’designs work…or don’t work The Evolution Of M&S Application And Business Value “Analysis Led” Discovery Predicts ‘why’ designswork…or don’t work (in systems that don’t exist yet) “Virtual” Trial & Error Explains ‘why’ existing products & systems work…or don’t work Pathology

  21. For P&G how Computing The Evolution Of Computing “Analysis Led” Discovery Tera To Exaflop And Beyond “Virtual” Trial & Error The Giga to Tera flop era Pathology The Megaflop to Gigaflop era

  22. Comments on the Capacity vs. Capability Debates Stochastics, DOE, & the ‘FLOOD’ of repetitive Case Studies. VS. The ‘Heroic’ calculation of Billion elements/atoms/particles revealing a fundamental understanding that is practically not possible to observe in the real world.

  23. Pursuing Realism??? • Solve ‘Bigger’ more complex Problems (Billion Elements, Billion Atoms/Molecules…etc.) • do parametric studies vs. point estimates (Stochastic) • Reach more analysts … Automating what it takes an expert to do today

  24. The Challenges • Application Software • Parallelism • Spatial AND • Is Temporal Decomposition Possible? • FAST Multi-physics Integration • The path from Basic Research to Commercial • The DATA management issue… • Education … • Engineering & Science Graduates that are ‘computational’ aware (BS/MS)

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