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Strategy & Business Planning Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence

Strategy & Business Planning Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence. G - Governance O - Oversight S - Support P - Perform. Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence (G,O,S,P). Competitive Intelligence ( G, O, P, S). Load & Revenue Forecasting ( G, O, P, S). Project Mgt ( G, O, P, S).

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Strategy & Business Planning Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence

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  1. Strategy & Business PlanningForecasting & Competitive Intelligence G - Governance O - Oversight S - Support P - Perform Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence (G,O,S,P) Competitive Intelligence (G, O, P, S) Load & Revenue Forecasting (G, O, P, S) Project Mgt (G, O, P, S) Economic Forecasting (G, O, P, S) Commodity Forecasting (G, O, P, S) • Develop short term TVA system peak and energy forecast • Develop long term TVA system peak and energy forecast • Provide delivery point forecast, long term peak demand forecasts for each of about 1200 TVA delivery points • Develop near term hourly load forecast, 35 day hourly TVA system load forecast adjusted for weekly temperature forecasts • Analyze non-normal weather impacts on load monthly • Provide analytical support including interruptible load forecasts, retail rate estimates for individual distributors and forecasts to support RUS requests • Develop and provide short term and long term fuel and emission allowance price forecasts with stochastic bands • Provide electricity price forecasts including 72 scenarios for uncertainty • Benchmark and monitor commodity forecasts against others in industry • Provide uncertainty ranges and various confidence ranges for use in scenario planning, risk analysis, project evaluations, generation and financial evaluations • Monitor and incorporate market data to trend to long term fundamental forecast • Support the monthly genplan and FCA process • Provide TVA’s Economic Outlook • Provide monthly economic update • Provide inflation and escalation rate forecasts • Research estimates of future costs of renewable, clean air and other emerging technologies • Provide other economic research as needed such as LT look at Regional Economy, etc. • Manage key vendor contracts such as Altos, CERA, etc. • Coordinates the move from commissioning Altos to provide forecasts to internally running models and developing forecasts • Coordinate setting up infrastructure for maintaining competitive intelligence info • F&CI Infrastructure Improvements (commodity model upgrades , data repository improvements, etc. • Process and procedures, indicators, etc. • Budget Development and Tracking • Produce an annual competitive outlook including competitor profiles, SWOTs, rate comparisons, etc. • Provide updated comparisons of TVA against other utilities for key variables • Provide strategic view of marketplace and trends

  2. Strategy & Business PlanningForecasting & Competitive Intelligence G - Governance O - Oversight S - Support P - Perform Beth Creel GM, Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence +1 (admin) Bob Millard, Sr. Mgr, Load & Revenue Forecasting Mike Walker Project Mgt Tammy Bramlett Sr. Mgr, Competitive Intelligence Lorna Greening Mgr, Economic Forecasting Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Commodity Forecasting +0 +6 +5 +2 Other potential candidates: Dale Harris Other potential candidates: Juan Gonzelez Other potential candidates: Jessica Baker +2 Other potential candidates: Jeff Roark Janet Jentilet Mark Meigs Total Headcount 21 Blue indicates new function or new area for individual

  3. Strategy & Business PlanningForecasting & Competitive Intelligence G - Governance O - Oversight S - Support P - Perform Beth Creel GM, Forecasting & Competitive Intelligence Bob Millard, Sr. Mgr, Load & Revenue Forecasting Mike Walker (currently in SP) Project Mgt Tammy Bramlett (currently in Structuring & Portfolio analysis) Sr. Mgr, Competitive Intelligence Lorna Greening (currently in Product, Risk & Economic analysis) Mgr, Economic Forecasting Janet Jentilet Sr. Mgr, Commodity Forecasting Other potential candidates: Dale Harris Other potential candidates: Other potential candidates: Jeff Roark Janet Jentilet Mark Meigs • Ron Morris • Lori Stenger • Jamie Bach • Scott Jones • Dennis Conn • Jessica Anthony • Wesley Nimon • John Snyder • Carla Baker • Andy Groth ( LT S/L) • Danielle Akins (currently in Risk & economic analysis) • Juan Gonzalez • Jeff Roark (currently in Trawick’s org) • Jessica Baker (currently in SP) • Claudia Garren (currently in Compliance and used to work in 1st Competitive Intelligence group

  4. Hardspots • Scott Jones is the only person in TVA that can produce the MEPF (Electricity Price Forecast) • There is no backup for Juan Gonzalez • Mike Walker is currently supporting the Load Forecasting’s delivery point forecast model initiative as well as SP’s Genview project • Andy Groth is out on long term sick leave due to illness

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