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SECTION 1 Examples of simple diagnostic models of ecosystem response to climate forcing

SECTION 1 Examples of simple diagnostic models of ecosystem response to climate forcing. NORTH ATLANTIC HERRING. Marc Hufnagl Myron Peck, Thomas Pohlmann, Mark Dickey-Collas, Richard Nash, Markus Kreus, Johannes Pätsch. North Sea. Norway. Iceland. Toresen Østvedt, 2000.

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SECTION 1 Examples of simple diagnostic models of ecosystem response to climate forcing

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  1. SECTION 1 Examples of simple diagnostic models of ecosystem response to climate forcing NORTH ATLANTIC HERRING Marc Hufnagl Myron Peck, Thomas Pohlmann, Mark Dickey-Collas, Richard Nash, Markus Kreus, Johannes Pätsch

  2. North Sea Norway Iceland Toresen Østvedt, 2000 http://www.fisheries.is/main-species/pelagic-fishes/atlantic-herring/ St. Lawrence Nova Scotia Georges Bank http://www.gma.org/herring/biology/distribution/stocks.asp http://www.thefishsite.com

  3. Herring spawning periods North Sea Iceland 62° Norway 60° 58° latitude Shetland west. Baltic Buchan 56° Firth of Clyde Banks 54° Celtic/Irish Celtic/Irish Downs 50° Downs 0 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 30 60 90 Calendar day

  4. Stock Collapse Recovery "Normal" Fishery Recent Period North Sea Autumn Spawners 2.0 SSB (Mt) 1.0 0.0 Recruits (109) 100 50 0 adults, F2-6 Mortality (F) (year-1) juveniles, F0-1 1 0 2010 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 Payne et al. (2009)

  5. Influenced by environmental factors? Norwegian spring spawners Toresen Østvedt, 2000, Fish and Fisheries

  6. Influenced by environmental factors? AMO standardized recuitment NAO SSB [million t] Gröger et al. 2009 ICES JMS

  7. 1. What influenced the decrease in recruitment ? - what is the most important period ? - what are the best indicators ?

  8. Juveniles (IBTS age 1) Adult (SSB) Late larvae (MIK) Early larvae (MLAI) Payne et al. (2009)

  9. 300 1986 250 1998 2000 200 1991 1992 1984 1985 1987 2001 MIK (survivers in February) 150 1996 1999 1981 1994 1983 1995 1979 1993 100 1982 2005 1980 1988 1990 2004 2002 1997 1978 50 2003 1989 1977 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 MLAI (recruitment abundance fall winter)

  10. Analyzing the experienced environmental conditions using drift models Approach 1: Specific herring drift model Approach 2: General analysis of potential indicators for different species Approach 3: IBM to analyze survival and growth

  11. Analyzing the experienced environmental conditions using drift models Approach 1: Specific herring drift model Approach 2: General analysis of potential indicators for different species Approach 3: IBM to analyze survival and growth

  12. 500 OS 0 60°N OS Bu 500 Bu 0 BaN 57°N 1000 BaN mean larval abundance (n·m-2 , 1972-2007) BaS 500 54°N 0 BaS 1000 51°N Do 500 48°N 0 500 Do 6°W 4°W 2°W 0° 2°E 4°E 0 0 100 200 300 0 500 250 time (day) abundance ( n·m-2 ) Analyzing the experienced environmental conditions using drift models start areas start times

  13. 1980 2000 NAO Drifter positions in February 1994/1995 1995/1996

  14. Drifter positions in February • Proxies for each spawning component • on drift day 150 (February, IBTS) • temperature • cumulative temperature • mean longitude • mean latitude • major axis of kernel • minor axis of kernel • tilt angle of kernel • isotropy • distance

  15. PCA of all indicators (labels overwinter survival) 8 survival lower than average higher than average 7.8 9.3 6 5.3 7 3.7 4 7 2.1 4.3 3.4 2.4 2 4.4 3.4 3.3 4.5 0.4 7 eigenvector 2 (25.9 % of variance) 0.2 2.5 0 1.2 2.3 6.1 -2 0.5 2.2 0.3 -4 0.2 0.9 4.8 -6 0.5 0.2 -8 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 eigenvector 1 (26.1 % of variance)

  16. Recruitment is related to drift and temperature conditions 10 8 R²= 0.46 6 overwinter survival 4 2 0 -2 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 eigenvector 2

  17. Recruitment is related to drift and temperature conditions 10 8 R²= 0.46 6 overwinter survival 4 2 0 -2 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 distance between start and end position eigenvector 2 Temperature

  18. Analyzing the experienced environmental conditions using drift models Approach 1: Specific herring drift model Approach 2: General analysis of potential indicators for different species Approach 3: IBM to analyze survival and growth

  19. - Coupling of a Langrangian Drifter model with NPZD - Starting drifters in each box each day from 1980 to 2006 - Tracking of all available idices over 60 days - T, S, Phytoplankton (small, large), Zooplankton (small, large) - Kernel statistics

  20. - Coupling of a Langrangian Drifter model with NPZD - Starting drifters in each box each day from 1980 to 2006 - Tracking of all available idices over 60 days - T, S, Phytoplankton (small, large), Zooplankton (small, large) - Kernel statistics 161 areas 365 days 12 months 25 proxies proxy year

  21. prediction correlation Correlation of proxy series with Recruitment/SBB series proxy3 correlation in the first half significant 3 neighboring areas also significant r² in the second half > 0.3 proxy2 R/SSB = a x Proxy + b Identification of area, month and proxy proxy1 Future prediction of R/SSB year

  22. R/SSB 1980 1990 2000 2010 year month # correl. spawning period Z1 Z12 proxy P2 Z2 # correl. P12

  23. x spawning areas correlations

  24. Preliminary results of a herring forecasts and a similar approach for other species

  25. mean ± sd observations mean ± sd hindcast mean ± sd forecast R/SSB 2070 2080 2090 2100

  26. Preliminary results for other species

  27. R/SSB time time

  28. # correlation month month

  29. # correlations

  30. x spawning areas correlations

  31. forecast R/SSB year year

  32. Thank you for your attention !

  33. What are the mechanisms how is recruitment influenced ? Approach 1: Specific herring drift model Approach 2: General analysis of potential indicators for different species Approach 3: IBM to analyze survival and growth

  34. What are the mechanisms/reasons ? Prey concentrations during first feeding have to be high Combination of temperature and daylength restricts survival Size of the zooplankton and match mismatch influences survival

  35. Overview North Atlantic Herring North Sea Herring Recruitment variability Climate influece Recruitment models What are the mechanisms ? http://www.gma.org

  36. Do we get similar results to the study before? YES, …. Number of significant correlations between T°C and R/SSB

  37. Do we get similar results to the study before? YES, …. … but other indicators have an even higher predictive capacity

  38. AUTUMN and WINTER SPAWNERS Nash et al. (2009)

  39. IHLS MLAI - INDEX (multiplicative larvae abundance index) AUTUMN and WINTER SPAWNERS Nash et al. (2009)

  40. IHLS MLAI - INDEX (multiplicative larvae abundance index) 1st quarter IBTS MIK 0-group index 20 to 30 mm SL AUTUMN and WINTER SPAWNERS Nash et al. (2009)

  41. IHLS MLAI - INDEX (multiplicative larvae abundance index) 1st quarter IBTS MIK 0-group index 20 to 30 mm SL AUTUMN and WINTER SPAWNERS IHLS IBTS Aug-Jan Feb Nash et al. (2009)

  42. Experienced Temperatures

  43. Changes in Experienced Temperatures

  44. North Atlantic Herring

  45. So what do early life stages experience? Larvae pre-metarmorphosis 15 Orkney 5 10 5 Buchan 15 Juvenile 0 10 15 T°C 10 Banks 15 10 Juvenile 1 10 5 5 Downs 1970 1980 1990 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000

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