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K. Manomaiphiboon 1 *, A. G. Russell 1 , S. He 2 ,

Preliminary Study: Direct and Emission-Induced Effects of Global Climate Change on Regional Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter. K. Manomaiphiboon 1 *, A. G. Russell 1 , S. He 2 , M. T. Odman 1 , S.-K. Park 1 , Y. Hu 1 , D. S. Cohan 3

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K. Manomaiphiboon 1 *, A. G. Russell 1 , S. He 2 ,

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  1. Preliminary Study: Direct and Emission-Induced Effects of Global Climate Change on Regional Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter K. Manomaiphiboon1 *, A. G. Russell1, S. He2, M. T. Odman1, S.-K. Park1, Y. Hu1, D. S. Cohan3 1: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology; 2: NESCAUM; 3: School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology October 2004

  2. Contents • Introduction and Objectives • Method • Results • Summary

  3. Introduction and Objectives Source: www.ipcc..ch

  4. Cont. • Forward: Climate change induced by emissions, land use modifications, and other human activities • Inverse: Of recent interest is how climate change might potentially impact regional air quality, e.g. 45-50 years from now. • In addition, how climate change might affect control strategies of emissions. • Focus: • Temperature increase • Ozone (O3) • Fine Particulate Matter (here, ASO4 = ASO4I + ASO4J)

  5. Method • Preliminary study: Climate change due to an uniform increase in temperature • Off-line perturbation: • Meteorology: +3 K in mean temperature • Emissions: Run SMOKE using perturbed meteorology • 3 Cases: 1) Base case 2) Direct case: Perturbed Meteorology & Base Emissions 3) Emission-Induced (i.e. indirect) case: Perturbed Meteorology & Perturbed Emissions • Sensitivity to emissions by brute-force method

  6. Domain of Interest 5-Day Episode of July 01-05, 2001 MCIP

  7. Specifications of Models-3 System • CMAQ: • Chemical mechanism: SAPRC-99 • Chemistry solver: Modified Euler backward iterative (MEBI) method • Cloud: Regional acid deposition model (RADM) • Aerosol dynamics: AERO3 • Deposition velocities of aerosols: AERO_DEPV2 • Horizontal and vertical advection: Piecewise parabolic method (PPM) • Minimum vertical eddy coefficient: 0.3 m2/sec • MM5: • Simple ice microphysics • Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme • Rapid radiative transfer model • Pleim-Chang PBL • Pleim-Xiu land surface model • FDDA: Model outputs & Observational data • Evaluation: Surface hourly data • SMOKE: • 1999 U.S. emissions inventory • EGAS V4.0 w/ existing control strategy in converting 1999 emissions to 2001 emissions

  8. Perturbed Temperature Field +3 K Base-Case Temp. (K)

  9. Results: Emissions Induced by Temp. Increase Base, Biogenic VOC Biogenic VOC Change (%) Base, Mobile NOx Mobile NOx Change (%)

  10. O3 Level Direct, Change (%) Base Emission-Ind., Change (%)

  11. ASO4 Level Direct, Abs. Change Base Emission-Ind., Abs. Change

  12. Time Series of O3: Atlanta

  13. Time Series of ASO4: Atlanta

  14. Sensitivity of O3 to NOx Direct Base Emission-Induced

  15. Sensitivity of O3 to VOC Direct Base Emission-Induced

  16. Summary • Effects of climate change due to an temperature increase studied • Various emissions: Sensitive to temperature • Change (from base case) in O3 and ASO4 levels in both direct and emission-induced cases: Fair to significant • Sensitivities of O3 to NOx and VOC in all the three cases: Different but similar in both spatial pattern and magnitude • Implication: Current emissions controls still robust and applicable for the future • Future work: • Use downscaled meteorological inputs from a global climate model to drive future scenarios • Incorporate emissions from Canada and Mexico in modeling • Use DDM (Direct Decoupled Method) for sensitivity calculation • Consider more gaseous and aerosol species

  17. Acknowledgements • U.S. EPA for financial support • Sergey & Air Quality Group at CEE, GaTech, for assistance

  18. Thank You

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