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A new energy-industrial revolution

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A new energy-industrial revolution

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  1. A new energy-industrial revolution and global agreement on climate changeNicholas SternChair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, IG Patel Professor of Economics & Government,London School of Economics and Political ScienceLow Carbon Prosperity SummitBrussels,9 February 2011

  2. A new energy-industrial revolution We are at a crossroads: much to gain from action, much to lose from inaction. Evidence on planet, risks and emissions points to ever greater urgency. A transition to low-carbon growth would likely be one of the most dynamic periods in economic history. A new era of progress and prosperity; could bring decades of innovative and creative growth across the economy, especially for businesses, and large and growing investment and markets for the pioneers. Will require good public policy, strong investment and some dislocation. Will not happen on its own, it is not for free and will involve changing prices, taxes, infrastructure, and regulations. Important to overcome market failures around R&D and finance, e.g., support for research institutions, RD&D tax/price incentives, risk sharing to encourage private investment. Funding from green taxes/permit auctions. 2

  3. Cleantech& Biotech (2009-) 6TH WAVE Waves of innovation Information& Telecom (1971-) Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production (1910-1975) 5TH WAVE Steel, Electricity& Heavy (1875-1920) INNOVATION 4TH WAVE Steam & Railways (1830-1870) 3RD WAVE Industrial (1770-1830) 2ND WAVE 1ST WAVE 1785 1845 1900 1950 1990 2020 3 Source: Merrill Lynch (2008) & Perez (2002)

  4. Drip irrigation and low- or no-till agriculture Place: Syria and Israel Source: Google images

  5. Cavity wall and loft insulation Place: UK Source: Google images

  6. Biofuels from algae Place: USA and Germany Source: Google images

  7. Electric vehicles Place: Germany Source: Google images

  8. Solar thin film and nanotechnology Place: USA and Japan Source: Google images

  9. Promoting technological innovation (I) IEA estimates of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies in 2009, by type of fuel* *IEA estimates are based on the price-gap method with a sample size of 37 counties, which the IEA state represent 95% of global subsidised fossil-fuel consumption. All but 2 of the 37 countries are non-OECD. Total US$ 312 billion • Total production subsidies could be in the order of US$ 100 billion p.a., although there are no current analyses of production subsidies that systemically examine a wide range of countries. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2010); IEA, OPEC, and The World Bank (2010), Analysis of the Scope of Energy Subsidies and Suggestions for the G-20 Initiative. Available at: http://www.g20.org/exp_04.aspx

  10. Promoting technological innovation (II) Source: World Bank, World Development Report 2010, Ch 7.

  11. Cancun to Durban • COP16 in Cancun was more constructive than Copenhagen, both in atmosphere and outcome. • Modest but significant advances: • Broad acceptance of the principles outlined in the Copenhagen Accord; • Embodiment of Accord submissions on emissions; takes us, for 2020, 60-70% of the way between BAU and a 2°C path; • Recognition there must be progress on the key building blocks of finance, forests, technology and measurement; mechanisms were set out. • China, India and Brazil are recognising their leadership role. • Any agreement should be based on an inclusive understanding and mutual confidence: • Will involve careful study and appreciation of the plans of others, including China's 12th 5-year plan. • These key foundations can be constructed via various commitment arrangements.

  12. Cancun to Durban • Top down and bottom up support each other • Mutual confidence is fundamental to accelerating progress • There is no artificial horse race between the two Top down (regional/international) Bottom up (firms/households/cities/nations) Source: Google images

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