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Diameter-Free Growth Modeling: Resolution in Scientific Research

Explore the fascinating world of growth modeling in forestry research with a focus on diameter-free methodologies and impactful decision-making. This paper delves into the concepts of prediction, precision, and controllable variables while emphasizing the balance between science and technology. Gain insights into process models, mechanistic approaches, and the importance of understanding multiple levels for effective prediction.

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Diameter-Free Growth Modeling: Resolution in Scientific Research

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  1. Diameter-free Growth Modelling and other Heresies Oscar Garcia University of Northern British Columbia

  2. Themes • Resolution, science vs. technology • Stem dbh as growth driver • Stochastics

  3. Model Uses • Decision-making (prediction) • Research (understanding)

  4. Management Decision-making • Prediction • Precision • Controllable variables • Match: • Available input info • Required output info

  5. Scientific Research • “Process models” • Mechanistic, realistic • Detailed • Qualitative behavior • Generate questions

  6. Science vs. Technology N, S, W, E Journal of Applied Forestry

  7. Science vs. Technology N, S, W, E Journal of Applied Forestry

  8. Prediction Tree-level model tree list tree list

  9. Prediction Tree-level model tree list tree list (B,N,H) Inventory

  10. Prediction Tree-level model tree list tree list (B,N,H) (B,N,H) Inventory Application

  11. Stand-level model Prediction Tree-level model tree list tree list (B,N,H) (B,N,H) Inventory Application

  12. Complexity, Resolution Level

  13. Complexity, Resolution Level “Model at one level of detail below the level desired for prediction”

  14. Complexity, Resolution Level “Model at one level of detail below the level desired for prediction” • Understanding: Two levels higher? • Prediction: Same level

  15. Complexity, Resolution Level “Model at one level of detail below the level desired for prediction” • Understanding: Two levels higher? • Prediction: Same level Links

  16. Growth Drivers v = f(age, dbh, site) ?

  17. Growth Drivers v = f( age , dbh, {site}) ? height

  18. Growth Drivers v = f(height, dbh) Growth driven by stem thickness?

  19. Growth Drivers v = f(height, dbh) Growth driven by stem thickness?? v = f(height, resources captured)

  20. TASS Mitchell 1975

  21. Stand-level V / H = f(H, N, C) (Eichhorn 1904) N / H = g(H, N, C) C / H = h(H, N, C)

  22. C vs. H

  23. C vs. H

  24. Stochastic Models • Convenient for the modeller • Variability info? • In practice, single realization

  25. Gross Increment

  26. Stochastic Models • Convenient for the modeller • Variability info? • In practice, single realization • Worse of both worlds?

  27. Mind the Users! web.unbc.ca/~garcia

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