Notes on Chapter Four

1. Notes on Chapter Four Paul Bacon SILS IR201

2. Waltz and Nye’s method of analysis • 3. International System • Structure • Process • 2. State/society • 1. Individual • Proximate cause(s) • Counterfactuals

3. Outcomes of WWII • 35-50 million people killed. • Advances in weaponry – tanks, planes, and radar • Development of nuclear weapons • Unconditional surrender of Germany and Japan • Occupation and transformation of Germany and Japan • German problem ‘solved’ by division into two • End of European dominance • Europe becomes a theater where others contest

4. Failure of the League of Nations 1 • The US never joined. • Germany and Japan left in protest. • All states had a veto, under Article 16, on collective security action. • The LON was, unfairly, associated with the punishment of Germany. • The LON was unable to prevent wars of aggression in the Japanese and Italian cases.

5. Failure of the League of Nations 2 • In the Japanese case, the report took too long to be compiled, and was too cautious and ineffective in its judgments and requirements. • In the Italian case, the criticism of Italian aggression by the LON was too weak and incomplete. • This was because the British and the French wanted the Italians to be their allies in the attempt to balance against Hitler’s Germany

6. The Punishment of Germany 1 • Blamed solely for WWI in the Treaty of Versailles. • Lost 25,000 square miles of territory. • This territory lost to France, Belgium, Denmark and Poland. • Lost 7 million people. • German army limited to 100,000. • A de-militarized zone created along the border with Alsace-Lorraine. • The Saar coalfields placed under French rule for 5 years. • Germany prohibited from having air force.

7. The Punishment of Germany 2 • Germany forbidden to unite with Austria. • Germany loses overseas colonies. • Given 33 billion dollar reparations bill. • Germany experiences massive inflation. • Inflation wipes out savings of German middle class. • Inflation makes it difficult to sustain democracy. • France occupies the Ruhr when Germany is unable to pay. • All of these factors create a situation where it is easier for Hitler to gain support. • See Nye, Figure 4.1, page 108 for more detail.

8. The 4 options available to Hitler • Passivity – acceptance of Germany’s weakened international position. • Expansion through economic growth – like Japan after WWII. • Limited goals – revise the treaty of Versailles, and regain some of Germany’s 1918 losses. • Expansionist strategy – breakout from Germany’s containment.

9. Hitler’s four phases of action • 1. Destroy the Versailles framework (1933-1936). • 2. Expand into the small countries neighboring Germany (1936-1940). • 3. Achieve rapid military mastery of the European Continent (1940). • 4. Over-reach and unleash full-scale war against the SU and the US (1941-1945).

10. Phase One • Withdrew from LON, and from the LON Disarmament Conference • Blamed France for withdrawal • Signed a treaty with Poland, to disrupt plans for a ‘Little Entente’ • Denounced the military limitation clauses of the Versailles Treaty • Announced plans to triple the size of the army, and to create an air force • Undermined the momentum behind the Stresa talks by making a diplomatic overture to Britain • Moved troops into the Rhineland • Raised the possibility of a return to the LON on German terms

11. Phase Two • Announced 4-year plan for military build-up • Made alliances with Japan and Italy • Supported Franco in the Spanish Civil War • Carried out a pre-emptive Anschluss in Austria, 1938. • (Arguably) outwitted British PM Neville Chamberlain in Munich 1938. • Agreed the transfer of the Sudetenland into German possession. • Six months later took control of the whole of Czechoslovakia. • Signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with the Soviet Union in August 1939.

12. Phase Three • Invaded and conquered Poland, 1939-40. • Sent troops to Norway during the ‘phony war’. • Launched a successful ‘blitzkrieg’ through Holland, Belgium and France. • Evaded the French Maginot line defences. • Drove the British Army back to Dunkirk, and off of the European mainland.

13. Phase Four • Defeated/stalemated in the Battle of Britain. • Attacked the Soviet Union in June 1941. • This was a significant risk, but at the time there was strong military support for this option from Germany military planners. • Germany had been sweeping all before it, and the Soviet Union was thought to be weak, internally divided, and badly organized. • Germany enjoyed considerable success in the early part of the war with the Soviet Union. • Nevertheless, it is highly possible that Germany would not have risked war with the Soviets if it were not for the role that the Slavs played in Hitler’s racist ideology. • Declared war on the US in December 1941, shortly after Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbour.

14. Structural causes of WWII • WWI did not solve the German problem. • The Versailles Treaty was too harsh, in that it provoked German nationalism. • But the VT was also too lenient, in that it left the Germans with the capacity to do something about their harsh treatment. • The absence of the US and the SU until late on meant that there was no large balancer to deter Germany.

15. Process • Germany was a revisionist state which was determined to destroy the Versailles system. • The growth of Fascist and Communist ideologies created hatred and hindered communication. • The British believed that appeasement was the best strategy. • The French believed that defensive strategy was the most effective way of dealing with the Nazi threat. • Both the British and the French therefore made the opposite mistake to that which they had made in the buildup to WWI.

16. Second image - State/society • Nye mentions three second image-related factors that contributed to the outbreak of war: • The Western democracies were torn apart by class cleavages and ideological disputes. • The Great Depression had a powerful effect on domestic politics and class conflict, and in particular made it easier for Hitler to come to power in Germany. • The US policy of isolationism, and failure to take the responsibility of becoming the new hegemonic power in the international system.

17. First image – Hitler’s war? 1 • WWII is often known as Hitler’s war. Whilst there is an important element of truth to this argument, it is an exaggeration, and the reality is much more complicated. • WWII was Act II of the Great War, unfinished business, and the interwar period was only an intermission. • Hitler did want war, but he initially wanted a short, sharp war, not the far broader and more damaging war that we now know as WWII. • The substantial Pacific War also fails to fit with the narrative of ‘Hitler’s war’.

18. First image – Hitler’s war? 2 • However, we should not go too far in the opposite direction, and attribute the causes of WWII exclusively or primarily to structural factors. • The British historian AJP Taylor has suggested that most German leaders in Hitler’s position would have pursued similar policies.   • Taylor’s argument is also a simplification and an exaggeration of a more complex reality. • We have seen that Nye helpfully divides the period of German resurgence into 4 phases, and argues that Hitler’s personality was more important in some phases than others. • To explain this in terms of Waltz’s theory, in some phases the third image was more important, and in some cases the first image was more important.

19. First image – Hitler’s war? 3 • Nye argues that Hitler’s personality was not the crucial factor in the first phase, and that most German leaders would have followed a familiar path. • Nye argues that the second and third phases, that brought mastery over Europe, depended on Hitler’s skill, audacity, and ideological commitment. • Eventually, Hitler made important mistakes in launching phase four, motivated by a growing hubris and sense of invincibility, and fuelled by his particular racist ideology. • Ultimately, Hitler’s individual leadership was a crucial factor in WWII, and increased in significance as he progressed through phases 1-4. • According to Nye, the outcome of WWII, and the kind of war it eventually became, depended very much on Hitler’s monomaniacal personality.

20. Proximate causes • Deep, intermediate and precipitating causes. • Main deep cause: the unfinished business of WWI. • Main intermediate causes: The social and ideological disruptions that produced Hitler in Germany, political and economic weaknesses in the democracies, and the policies of the American, British and French governments. • Main precipitating cause: Adolf Hitler’s strategy for domination.

21. Counterfactuals • What if Germany had been appeased, not punished during the 1920s, and the Weimar Republic had been preserved? • What if the US had ratified the Treaty of Versailles, joined the League of Nations, and stayed in Europe to preserve the balance of power? • What if the Great Depression had not happened? • What if Britain and France had together confronted Germany earlier in the 1930s? • What if Britain and France had allied with the Soviet Union earlier in the 1930s? • Each of these developments might have prevented Hitler either from coming to power, or from launching his campaign of aggression.

22. Lessons of history? 1 • Some kind of WWII was probable but not inevitable. • Individual human choices mattered, and the role of one individual, Hitler, is something we have to consider very carefully. • Nazi Germany went to war deliberately. • But there were various other forms that the war could have taken. • Stalin gave Germany too much latitude. • The Americans should not have been isolationist. • The British should not have attempted to appease Hitler. • The French should not have relied on a defensive political-military strategy.

23. Lessons of history? 2 • The British, French and Soviets should have found a way to make an alliance in the 1930s. • Hitler’s strategy of dividing and ruling the British, French and Soviets was brilliant. • Germany’s blitzkrieg tactics in phase three of the conflict were also brilliant and highly successful. • The impact of Hitler as an individual became more important as we progressed through each of Nye’s four phases. • Most German leaders would have pursued phase one • Arguably only Hitler would have pursued phase four. • Hitler miscalculated in attacking the Soviet Union and declaring war on the US. • This miscalculation was partly due to hubris on the part of Hitler, and partly because of the racial dimension of his view of the world.

24. Lessons of history? 3 • Appeasement is now treated as something of a dirty word as a result of the diplomatic failures of the 1930s with which it is associated. • However, appeasement is not always unsuccessful or morally wrong. • The Athenians should arguably have appeased Corinth in the lead-in to the Second Peloponnesian War. • France was successfully appeased in 1815, when it was still strong. • Britain wisely appeased the US between the 1880s and early 1900s, as the US overtook the UK and became the global hegemon.

25. Lessons of history? 4 • Perhaps, ironically, the West confronted Germany in the 1920s, when it should have been appeased, and appeased Germany in the 1930s, when it should have been confronted. • WWII resulted from a collective failure to deter Hitler’s planned aggression. • We can further argue, perhaps, that the best policies to try and avoid WWI and WWII were almost opposite. • In both cases, however, Western allies learnt the wrong lessons from the previous war.

26. Lessons of history? 5 • If the Western Allies had accommodated or appeased Germany in the build-up to WWI, then perhaps WWI could have been delayed or avoided altogether. • Also, if the Western Allies had allied more convincingly and deterred Germany, then WWII could have been avoided. • Unfortunately, the Western policies were the opposite of this. The West confronted Germany in 1914, and appeased Germany in the 1930s. • From this we can learn that different policies may be more appropriate at different times, and that we should not simply plan on the basis of what happened in the previous major conflict scenario.