Manizales Manifesto : Risk Management is an Essential Strategy of Development

1. Manizales Manifesto: Risk Management is an Essential Strategy of Development Earth science is the foundation for the identification of seismic hazard in Colombia and its neighboring countries Engineering, social science, and economics are needed to understand the consequences of the hazard for the population and infrastructure Communicating risk to decision-makers is also our responsibility. We must learn to speak the language of those we hope to influence, and we must furnish examples of past mitigation successes We need to work with organizations such as CAPRA, GEM, and CERESIS to give civil authorities the tools to manage the risk, such as building codes and retrofitting, and financial risk transfer

2. Strategies for improving the next generation seismic hazard map Goal 1: What are the most hazardous faults? To answer this, we need fault slip rates. This requires a denser GPS network, many more palesoseismic investigations (geomorphic, trenching, age dating, LiDAR), and improved seismic and strong motion monitoring Goal 2: The greatest scientific effort should be expended on faults near highly populated areas, near key infrastructure and critical facilities. Nevertheless, tsunamigenic subduction earthquakes also need study. Goal 3: We need to understand the seismogenic sources associated with surface faults and folds, maximum earthquake magnitudes, b-values (frequency of large to small shocks), and recurrence behavior. This requires 3D seismic analysis and the best possible historical catalog.

3. We need to acknowledge and build on past successes in Colombia Manizales: Starting in 1875, Manizales prohibited adobe construction and required bamboo-reinforced buildings. Today, all government buildings are insured against earthquakes. The Cathedral was retrofitted by public subscription. The mayor, a civil engineer, has been receptive. Bogotá: Retrofit of all public schools is underway and partially completed. Extensive seismic microzonation analysis has been completed, as well as study of the Bogota fault. Engineers have spoken with one voice. National: A new GPS network has been installed. The national seismic network has been strengthened. An online ShakeMap system for emergency management is running. The national seismic hazard map has just been updated, and building codes are comprehensive.

4. Earth Science is only the first link in a chain of risk management Critical engineering data is also needed so that fault studies are transformed into accurate seismic risk projections A critical need for Colombia is better Ground Motion Prediction Equations (attenuation relations) To estimate the critical site amplification, VS30 measurements (shear wave velocity at 30 m depth) are needed in all populated basins The national strong motion network needs to be expanded so that accelerations observed during large earthquakes in Colombia are measured near-fault, in basins, and in typical buildings

5. Creating a Community of Trust and Collaboration Accelerates Research Colombia, Venezuela, Panama, and Ecuador share tectonic processes and faults that do not respect national boundaries Perhaps a Northern Andes Research Collective of some kind could promote research collaborations, data sharing, and mutual post-earthquake scientific support Access to lucid seismic risk information should be a human right. CAPRA and GEM could be important for developing standards for data and software, training, and to gain visibility by development agencies. We recommend that Colombia consider joining GEM.