Decision Making in the 21 st Century: What’s New

1. Decision Making in the 21st Century: What’s New Transportation Research Board Summer Meeting Minneapolis, MinnesotaJuly 11, 2010

2. First… What’s NOT new?

3. The need for timely & accurate information for transportation planning!!

4. What IS new? Moving from Mechanistic Thinking and analysis To Social Systemic Thinking and synthesis

5. A Great Introduction to 21st Century Decision Making

6. A Great Introduction to 21st Century Decision Making And here’s why…

7. The World is moving From this The Mechanistic Mindset of the Industrial Age The Systems Thinking Mindset of the Social Systemic Age …to THIS

8. Achieving synthesis requires understanding the System in which you are operating… and that system is a whole that is defined by its function in a larger containing system. It contains a minimum of two essential parts…without which it cannot perform its defining function.

9. What is a System? (Cont.) The essential parts must satisfy the following conditions. • Each essential part can affect the properties or behavior of the whole.

10. What is a System? (Cont.) The essential parts must satisfy the following conditions. • Each essential part can affect the properties or behavior of the whole. • No essential part has an independent effect on the whole; the effect it has depends on the properties or behavior of at least one other essential part. Thus, the essential parts form a connected set.

11. What is a System? (Cont.) The essential parts must satisfy the following conditions. • Each essential part can affect the properties or behavior of the whole. • No essential part has an independent effect on the whole; the effect it has depends on the properties or behavior of at least one other essential part. Thus, the essential parts form a connected set. • Therefore, a system is a whole that cannot be divided into independent parts, and when the whole is taken apart it, and its essential parts, lose their defining functions.

12. When is a System of Value? From the perspective of the end user: The whole system is seen as being greater than the sum of its individual parts.

13. Always remember – You’re more than the Sum of your parts One of the more “interesting” examples

14. Getting from Yesterday, to Tomorrow • Make-and-Sell • Sense-and-Respond • Anticipate-and-Lead

15. MAKE-AND-SELL Planning Design: Efficient Mechanism …does just that: The enterprise predicts what the market will demand, makes a product or service, then goes out and sells/implements it. Social SystemicMindset Mechanistic Mindset

16. SENSE-AND-RESPOND Planning Design: Adaptive Systems …starts with the enterprise believing the future as neither predictable nor controllable. Social SystemicMindset Mechanistic Mindset

17. DISTRIBUTION SUPPLIERS VESTED INTEREST GROUPS COMPETITION ENTERPRISE COMMUNITY CUSTOMERS FINANCIALSYSTEM GOVERNMENT MEDIA SOCIAL TRENDS ANTICIPATE-AND-LEAD Planning Design: Preempt and Create …assumes the future is largely determined by what the enterprise does -- focuses on the future it wants to create. Social SystemicMindset Mechanistic Mindset

18. A SAMPLE OF THE DISTINCTIONS TRAIT MAKE-AND-SELL SENSE-AND-RESPOND ANTICIPATE-AND-LEAD Social SystemicMindset Mechanistic Mindset

19. A SAMPLE OF THE DISTINCTIONS cont. TRAIT MAKE-AND-SELL SENSE-AND-RESPOND ANTICIPATE-AND-LEAD Social SystemicMindset Mechanistic Mindset

20. NOT ONE OR THE OTHER…BUT ONE AND THE OTHER MAKEANDSELL SENSEANDRESPOND ANTICIPATEANDLEAD Social SystemicMindset Mechanistic Mindset

21. Land Use Effects Not managing the parts separately… Urban Growth Highway Capacity projects Economic Impact Transportation Affordability Major Transit Investments Changing Demographics Greenhouse Gas Emissions HOV lanes and Carpooling Tolling & Pricing Managing the interaction of the parts SOCIAL TRENDS Social SystemicMindset Mechanistic Mindset

22. A “Caution” based on experience “The pioneers of advanced models saw them as gradual improvement following many years of research and development. Those not involved view the changes as far more radical and sudden.” NCHRP Synthesis 406 Advanced Practices in Travel Forecasting Steel Axes for Stone Age Men Well Meaning Missionaries (change agents) And Unintended Consequences.

23. Knowledge resides in the user and not in the collection. It’s how the user reacts to the collection of information that really matters. C. West Churchman

24. Welcome to the State of the USA

25. State of the USA PurposeTo help the American people better assess for themselves the progress of the United States through the use of quality measures and data.

26. State of the USA A social systemic observatory designed to meet the needs of Decision Makers in all stages and forms of planning designs

27. SUSA Boundary Conditions

28. Key National Health Indicators* • Health Outcomes • Life expectancy at birth, age 65 • Infant mortality • Injury related mortality • Self-reported health status • Unhealthy days physical/mental • Chronic disease prevalence • Serious psychological distress • Health Systems • Health care expenditures • Insurance coverage • Unmet medical, dental and prescription drug needs • Preventive services • Childhood immunization • Preventable hospitalizations “We believe this set of measures, as deployed by the State of the USA project, can help move the nation toward better health. IOM Committee Chair George J. Isham Medical Director and Chief Health Officer, Health Partners, Inc of Bloomington, Minnesota • Health-Related Behaviors • Smoking • Physical activity • Excessive drinking • Nutrition • Obesity • Condom use • Health Determinants • Social and physical conditionswith a significant impact on people’s health • Health Disparities • The variations of health conditions across geography and demographic groups. * State of the USA Health Indicators. Institute of Medicine of the National Academies. December 2008. For a summary and the full report, please see www.stateoftheusa.org/ourwork/iom_committee.asp.)

29. SUSA Boundary Conditions SUSA WILL NOT: SUSA WILL: Aggregate Display and disseminate information Enable analysis and discussion about progress Provide relevant measures Provide a free service Focus on small sets of key indicators Identify gaps in knowledge Collect Interpret Not analyze or assess progress Set goals or targets Have a political agenda or commercial interest Compete with existing encyclopedic databases Fill gaps in knowledge

30. Plans for 2010/2011 • Launch The State of the USA Private Beta with key national health indicators in 2010; official launch in 2011 • Evolve the site, working with our strategic partners • Implement a national public/private partnership with government, civil society, business, media and academia – supported by the scientific and statistical communities • Expand our coalition of strategic partners and individual donors.

31. State of the USAA social systemic observatory designed to meet the needs of Decision Makers in all stages and forms of planning designs …even transportation planners!!

32. SUSA Will Roll Out Model to Other Major Issues • Aging • Civic and Cultural Life • Crime and Justice • Economy • Education • Energy • Environment • Families & Children • Governance • Health • Housing • Infrastructure • Innovation • Safety and Security

33. Key Infrastructure and Transportation Indicators • Design broad framework for collaboration during next week's working meeting of Executive Directors and The State of the USA • Start fast, small pilot projects on state of the field and web-based display of infrastructure and transportation metrics with State of the USA. • Initiate discussions on infrastructure and transportation issue frames, indicators and datasets, with TRB leadership and relevant leaders across the Academies

34. Welcome to theTransportation Research Board…Let’s work together and develop a meaningful relationship

35. Not the end…but hopefullythe beginning…