Scenario impacts: methodology and modelling results

1. Davide Fiorello TRT Trasporti e Territorio Scenario impacts:methodology and modelling results

3. The STEPs Models • European models POLES model analysing the world energy market, transport and socio-economic interconnections ASTRA System Dynamics Model focused on linkages between transport, economy and environment SASI model concerning the impacts of transport on socio-economic development

4. The STEPs Models • Regional models • Edinburgh • Dortmund • Helsinki • South Tyrol • Integrated land use and transport models • Brussels • Transport model with input from land use and economy

5. The modelling strategy All models used were already established and applied at their scale The scenarios input was adapted to the structure, the context and the scale of each single model Models used as input also intermediate results of other models, e.g. fuel price

6. POLES-ASTRA modelling loop Transport costs – transport demand POLES ASTRA Car fleet – Fuel price development Fuel price development has been estimated starting from the assumptions on oil price development through an iterative loop between the POLES and ASTRA models

7. From oil price to fuel price

8. The modelling scenarios Reference scenario

9. The results: reference scenario Transport variables (2005 - 2030) ASTRA model: Passengers-km

10. The results: reference scenario Energy variables POLES model: Share of energy from renewable sources

11. The results: reference scenario Environment variables Dortmund model: polluting emissions

12. The results: reference scenario Social and economic variables SASI model: accessibility at the year 2030

13. The results: reference scenario • Transport demand continues to grow steadily and significantly • Freight demand growth exceeds the economic growth measured in terms of GDP: i.e. no decoupling • Car ownership is growing but with a decreasing growth rate. • Energy consumption is decreasing (thanks to road vehicle fleet renewal) • CO2 emissions are stable or slightly increasing • Average accessibility of European regions is increasing (thanks to Trans-European Networks)

14. The results: business as usual scenario (under low oil price growth) • Transport demand is not significantly affected • Car and road freight continue to be the main modes • Total energy consumption and polluting emissions are substantially unchanged • Growth of GDP and employment is slightly reduced, (base trend of the reference scenario not significantly changed) • Average European accessibility for passengers and freight is reduced

15. The results: effect of higher oil price Transport variables ASTRA model: Passengers-km

16. The results: Effect of higher oil price Energy variables Edinburgh model: Total energy consumption

17. The results: Effect of higher oil price Environment variables Dortmund model: polluting emissions

18. The results: Effect of higher oil price Social and economic variables ASTRA model: Employment

19. The results – Effect of higher oil price • Pressure for improving efficiency and using alternative sources of energy • Slight reduction of total mobility • Some shift to non-road modes • Passenger demand more elastic than freight demand (reduction in car ownership) • Polluting emissions further decreased (locally and CO2) • GDP and employment growth only slightly reduced • Accessibility not dramatically damaged

20. The results: Effect of policies Transport variables ASTRA model: Pass-km

21. The results: Effect of policies Energy variables POLES model: Share of energy from renewable sources

22. The results: Effect of policies Environment variables (2005 – 2030) ASTRA model: CO2 emissions

23. The results: Effect of policies Environment variables (2005 – 2030) Edinburgh model: PM emissions

24. The results: Effect of policies Social and economic variables ASTRA model: Employment

25. The results: Effect of policies Social and economic variables SASI model: Accessibility at year 2030

26. The results: effect of policies Technology investment: • neutral impact on economic development • additional investments, acceleration of fleet renewal • positive development of energy consumption • reduction of polluting emissions and CO2

27. The results: effect of policies Demand regulation: • transport demand slow down • further reduction of polluting emissions and CO2 • road transport sector is penalised • negative impact on the economy (but still growing significantly) • reduced accessibility of regions

28. Some preliminary conclusions • Scarcity of oil could accelerate the development and take up of alternative fuel technologies, • Investment in alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of local emissions and reduce unitary energy consumption but will only reduce yearly CO2 emissions after a time lag of about 15 years, • Some form of regulation of demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion.

29. Final remarks • STEPs modelling exercise has not taken into account the issue of the economic efficiency of the policies • Demand regulation measures could significantly impact on people’s lifestyles and impose severe constraints on personal mobility • Further studies and other projects will be needed to address the issues above