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The Greenland Physics Problem

The Greenland Physics Problem. Diego Klabjan & Yue Geng Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences Northwestern University. Agenda. Project overview Model developed Current study Issues Next steps. Project Overview. Scope Deliverables Milestones. Scope.

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The Greenland Physics Problem

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  1. The Greenland Physics Problem Diego Klabjan & YueGeng Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences Northwestern University

  2. Agenda • Project overview • Model developed • Current study • Issues • Next steps

  3. Project Overview Scope Deliverables Milestones

  4. Scope • Assess long term economical viability of Summit • Supporting transportation logistics needs • Operational considerations at Summit • Energy requirements • Environmental impact • Emissions from transportation • Renewable on-site generation

  5. Capture Uncertainties • Future research needs at Summit • Logistics costs • Fuel • Availability of transportation modes • Traverse • Commercial access

  6. Deliverables • A tool to analyze scenarios • Cost • Emissions • Other KPIs • Given a possible scenario • Determine by means of optimization logistics requirements and expenses • Trade-off between cost and emissions

  7. Major Milestones

  8. Model Data Model Assumptions

  9. Completed Work: Data • Obtained prior year operational and logistics data • Vehicle availability • LC-130 • Vessels • Shipments in past years • Personnel activity • Aggregated level • Daily fuel consumption

  10. Completed Work: Model • Given • Shipping requirements • Availability and delivery dates • Available transportation resources (vehicles) • Fuel requirements at Summit • Determine • Date of vehicle sent • Goods transported by each vehicle

  11. Time (Days/Weeks) LC-130 from Scotia on day 8 arrive Kanger on day 9 Inventory left from previous day Vessel from VA Beach on day 2 arriving to Kanger on day 32 Time window for shipment A at origin Shipment A Location in the US 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 31 32 … … 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 31 32 … … Kanger 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 31 32 … … Summit … Time window for shipment A at destination Locations Aggregate by week Shipment A

  12. Validation/Calibration • Representative data from 2005-2009 • Data from 2008 most complete • Includes all shipments • No description, but weight and volume • Limited vessel data • Personnel data at aggregated level • Batches arriving and leaving Summit

  13. Assumptions • Final destinations at various locations • Can arbitrarily be consolidated • Four vehicle types considered • LC-130, LC-5, Twin Otter, and vessels • Reverse logistics not considered • Our task • No volume constraints • Feasibility of vehicles ‘guessed’

  14. Assumptions • Fuel required only due to personnel • Aggregation level of shipments • Fuel • Personnel • Can be transported by vessel or aircraft • Everything else • Lead time of 30 days for vessel

  15. Study Results Data Issues

  16. 2008 Snapshot • PRIMARY NODES • Kangerlussuaq • Summit Station • Thule Air Base • Remote Sites… Field Number of flights to Thule: 6 Number of vessels to Thule: 2 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 22 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 2 Number of flights to Kanger: 23

  17. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels January to March Flights to other locations: None Field Number of flights to Thule: 1 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 1 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 2 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 5

  18. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels April to June Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 3 Thule to Ilulissat 3 Thule to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 7 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 1 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 7 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 7

  19. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels July to September Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 1 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 3 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 3 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 4 Number of flights to Kanger: 4

  20. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels October to December No shipments Currently not considering traverse Field Field

  21. Minimize No. Vehicles & Use 4 Vessels Year 08 Total Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 4 Thule to Ilulissat 3 Thule to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 9 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 5 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 12 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 4 Number of flights to Kanger: 16

  22. Minimize Only No. Vehicles January to March Flights to other locations: None Field Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 1 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 1

  23. Minimize Only No. Vehicles April to June Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 2 Thule to Ilulissat 2 Kanger to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 6 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 3 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 2 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 10

  24. Minimize Only No. of Vehicles July to September Flights to other locations: Thule to Ilulissat 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 2 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 4 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 3 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 8

  25. Minimize Only No. of Vehicles October to December No shipments Field Field

  26. Minimize Only No. of Vehicles Year 08 Total Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 2 Thule to Ilulissat 3 Kanger to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 8 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 7 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 6 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 19 (LC-5)

  27. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels January to March Flights to other locations: None Field Number of flights to Thule: 2 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 2 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 3 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 2

  28. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels April to June Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 2 Thule to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 8 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 1 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 6 Field Number of flights to Kanger: 9

  29. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels July to September Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 1 Field Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 4 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 7 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 4 Number of flights to Kanger: 5

  30. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels October to December No shipments Field Field

  31. Minimize Cost & Use 4 Vessels Year 08 Total Flights to other locations: Kanger to Ilulissat 3 Thule to Swiss Camp 1 Field Number of flights to Thule: 10 Number of flights from Thule to Summit: 3 Number of flights from Kanger to Summit: 16 Field Number of vessels to Kanger: 4 Number of flights to Kanger: 16

  32. Summary for 2008

  33. Current Vehicle Setting

  34. Front-end Interface • Future expositions in Google Maps • Already implemented them • Manually feeding a solution • Need to integrate with the analytics module • Do not have access to a GIS system

  35. Missing or Incomplete Data • Operating cost of LC-5 and LC-130 • Payload of vessels • Equipment that requires fuel consumption at Summit • Block time between various locations • Baseload daily fuel consumption at Summit • Fuel consumption per person

  36. Missing or Incomplete Data • Special requirements for shipments on particular vehicles • Large equipment can be transported only on particular vehicles • What is the flexibility in terms of the shipment and delivery dates • Flight information available only for Scotia to Summit via Kanger • Need for other locations

  37. Issues and Next Steps Issues Next steps

  38. High Level Understanding of the Model • Available vehicles/modes of transportation • Shipping requirements • Time based (shipping and delivery windows) • Weight and volume • Special attention to fuel • Aggregation from day to week or month

  39. Open Items • Is the delivery date in CST reliable? • Use of traverse in the future • CST considers many additional locations • Transport of fuel and its use at Summit • More granular personnel data • Their flexibility • Duration of stay

  40. Immediate Actions • Settle data issues and requirements • Incorporate reverse logistics • Adjust the model • Gather data • Capture emissions • From transportation • From operations at Summit • As a function of fuel and landings/take-offs

  41. Perpetual Efforts • Modeling future scenarios • How to estimate future shipments? • Not just volume, but also their timing • How many personnel in the future? • Can we anticipate the per month requirement? • Hard to forecast due to limited historical data • Availability of future modes of transportation • Is it going to be the same old story?

  42. Perpetual Efforts • Incorporate KPI • Pounds of cargo moved (O-D) • Number of personnel moved (O-D) • Hourly airlift costs • Ship costs per pound • Volume of fuel consumed for flights and infrastructure • Annual researcher days supported • Energy consumption at Summit

  43. Perpetual Efforts • Incorporate traverse • Handle it as what-if • With or without it • Have cost-benefit analyses • How to model a possible engineering/technological break through?

  44. Future Milestones • On-track

  45. Suggestions • Go-to person at NSF • Anticipated needs of Summit • Understanding of NSF’s mission • Someone from CPS besides Sandy?

  46. Morals • Garbage in, garbage out! • If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it! • The study will be as good as the data available • We must all be comfortable in all of the assumptions and the team members!

  47. Acknowledgments • Indispensible help from Sandy Starkweather Support Manager CPS Mike Dover Project Developer Critigen Jay Burnside a.k.a. Traverse Guru

  48. Acknowledgments • Without them we would not be sitting here Pat Haggerty Renee D. Crain Simon N. Stephenson

  49. Almost as North as Summit

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