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Extreme Weather Events – Climate Change Implications and Disaster Risk Management

Extreme Weather Events – Climate Change Implications and Disaster Risk Management. Dr. Anil K. Gupta Associate professor, National Institute of Disaster Management (Government of India, Ministry of Home Affairs) New Delhi. Catastrophe events (1970-2001).

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Extreme Weather Events – Climate Change Implications and Disaster Risk Management

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  1. Extreme Weather Events – Climate Change Implications and Disaster Risk Management Dr. Anil K. Gupta Associate professor, National Institute of Disaster Management (Government of India, Ministry of Home Affairs) New Delhi

  2. Catastrophe events (1970-2001)

  3. All natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2005, number of events

  4. Reported catastrophe losses in India, 1965-2001

  5. Disasters in India

  6. Hazard Vulnerability in India 12% 16% 60% ..15% 8%

  7. Long coastline of 8000 kms 40 million hectres are prone to flood 68% of the net area sown in the country is prone to drought More than 20% of the total geographical area of India is prone to landslides.

  8. Major Natural Disasters : 1990 - 2006 Earthquakes Uttarkashi 1991 Latur (Killari) 1993 Jabalpur 1997 Chamoli 1999 Kutchchh, Gujarat 2001 J&K 2005 Cyclones East & West Godavari 1992& dist.of Andhra Pradesh 1996 Kutchchh, Gujarat 1998 Orissa 1999 Floods Punjab 1993 Kerala 1994 Punjab & Haryana 1996 Mumbai 2005 Bihar 2008 Tsunami Andaman & Nicobar Islands & coastal areas 2004 Earthquake, J&K Oct.8, 2005 Earthquake, Gujarat January 26, 2001 Tsunami Dec.26, 2004 11

  9. Increased Mortality and Homelessness

  10. Global analysis of records reveal that nearly 90 % of loss of life due to natural disasters were caused by weather- climate and water-related hazards Increasing number of natural disasters over the past five and half decades (Data from UN/ISDR – “Disaster Statistics” http://www.unisdr.org/disaster-statistics/occourence-trends-century.htm)

  11. CLIMATE-CHANGE AND DISASTER RISKS

  12. Environment, climate and disasters

  13. DISASTERS IDENTIFIED BY High Powered Committee (HPC) I. WATER AND CLIMATE RELATED DISASTERS 1. Floods 2. Cyclones 3. Tornadoes 4. Hailstorm 5. Cloud Burst 6. Heat Wave and Cold Wave 7. Snow Avalanches 8. Droughts 9. Sea Erosion 10. Thunder and Lightning 11. Tsunami (Added) Environment?

  14. II. GEOLOGICALLY RELATED DISASTERS 1.Landslides and Mudflows 2. Earthquakes 3. Dam Failures/ Dam Bursts 4. Mine Fires Environment? • III. CHEMICAL, INDUSTRIAL AND NUCLEAR • Chemical and Industrial Disasters • Nuclear Disasters

  15. IV. ACCIDENT RELATED DISASTERS 1. Forest Fires 2. Urban Fires 3. Mine Flooding 4. Oil Spill 5. Major Building Collapse 6. Serial Bomb Blasts 7. Festival related disasters 8. Electrical Disasters and Fires 9. Air, Road and Rail Accidents 10. Boat Capsizing 11. Village Fire Environment?

  16. V. BIOLOGICALLY RELATED DISASTERS 1. Biological Disasters and Epidemics 2. Pest Attacks 3. Cattle Epidemics 4. Food Poisoning Environment?

  17. Disaster - types: Naturally-classified… • Environmental (natural or man-made) • Geo-hydrological • Biological • Chemical • Fires (env.) • Epidemics…. • Technological & civil / sectorial • Rail, Industrial (Electrical, Mechanical, chemical..), Nuclear, Aviation, Road… • Security threats • Terrorism, sabotage, bomb blast… • War • Festival related – Stempede etc. Originating in environment

  18. ALARP • As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALRAP) DRR ZONE BATNEEC

  19. Disaster Management Vehicle RISK MANAGEMENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE Prevention Mitigation Preparedness Planning Planning Response Emergency Risk Assessment Hazard / Risk Reduction Vulnerability Reduction RESIDUAL RISK Risk Analysis Relief Governance ENVIRONMENT community COMMAND Rehabilitation Reconstruction Evaluation Monitoring Management centric Operation centric Disaster Risk Management

  20. MULT-HAZARD IMPACT ANALYSIS HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS MCAS & CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT SITE RISK ASSESSMENT HAZARD MITIGATION LAND-USE & ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING RISK INTEG RATION INTO DEVELOPMENT EMERGENCY PLANNING DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE & EVALUATION RESPONSE DRILL FUNCTIONS-…. DISASTER REDUCTION

  21. Physical (buildings, structures, physical property, industry, roads, bridges, etc.) Environmental(water, land/soil, land-use, landscape, crops, lake/rivers / estuaries, aquaculture, forests, animals/livestock, wildlife, atmosphere, energy, etc.) Social (life, health, employment, relations, security, peace, etc.) Economic (assets, deposits, reserves, income, commerce, production, guarantee/insurance, etc.) IMPACTS OF DISASTERS Disaster Event Physical Environmental SOCIAL Economic

  22. DM Paradigm Shift • Response Centric • Relief Centric • Mitigation centric • Preparedness centric • Disaster Centric • Hazard Centric • Vulnerability Centric • Environment Centric Adaptation

  23. PREVENTIVE DISASTER MANAGEMENT A. Hazard – Vulnerability Disaster Relief B. Hazard - Mitigation Disaster Relief A: Business as Usual; B; Preferred Approach

  24. Concept of Disaster Risk Reduction Risk Reduction: • Event minimization • Loss minimization • Quick recovery (Resilience) Approach: • Visualizing hazards • Reducing vulnerability • Increasing coping capacities

  25. DRR Strategy Design – Components • What is the risk hazard - event xdamageability • What is at risk • – Life, Structures, Resources, Infrastructure • Resist • Resilience • Avoid • Tolerate • Manage • Programmes • Direct • Indirect • Infused

  26. HRVC Analysis • Hazard identification • Establish relative priorities for your hazards. • Hazard Mapping • Critical Facility Analysis • Identify critical facilities categories • Complete a critical facilities inventory • Identify intersections of critical facilities with high-risk areas • Vulnerability Analysis • Societal • Infrastructure • Environmental • Economic

  27. Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation Strategies ‘adaptation’to climate-change and its implications towards disaster management, aims at developing a set of abilities to sustain in the given complex scenario of influences along human environment. Sensitivity-adaptation framework to climate-change THE COMPONENTS OF ADAPTATION Reducing the risk of occurrence of a hazard event (i) prevention (ii) mitigation or (iii) control • Reducing exposure to hazardous event • avoidance/migration • resilience Capacity to contain (i) prevent damages (ii) prevent losses (iii) early normalcy

  28. Potential hazards, DRR-Adaptation and mainstreaming options

  29. DROUGHT SEQUENCE Meteorological Hydrological Environmental Ecosystems Agriculture Habitation Socio-economic Drought View point: outside a political manual or drought declaration

  30. The Disaster Management Act 2005 • The Disaster Management Act was enacted on 23rd December,2005. The Act provides for establishment of - • NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority) • SDMA (State Disaster Management Authority) • DDMA (District Disaster Management Authority) • Act provides for constitution of Disaster Response Fund and Disaster Mitigation Fund at National, State and District level. • Establishment of NIDM and NDRF.

  31. NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT • Ministry of Agriculture set up National Centre for Disaster Management at IIPA in 1995 • NCDM scaled up to NIDM in October 2003 (as part of Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India) • NIDM is a Statutory Body (Chapter 7 - DM Act, 2005) • 4 Academic divisions and 4 multi-disciplinary research cells

  32. STATUTORY MANDATES • Develop Training Modules, Undertake research & documentation, Organize training programmes; • Formulate and implement a comprehensive Human Resource Development Plan covering all aspects of disaster management; for all the sectors, • Provide inputs in National Level Policy formulation; • Guidance to training and research Institutesfor development of training & research programmes

  33. MANDATES……. • Training of faculty members of Disaster Management /State training institutes • Develop educational materials for disaster management including academic & professional courses; • Promote awareness among stakeholders including college or school teachers; technical personnel & others associated with multi-hazard mitigation, preparedness and response • Promotion of disaster management education at higher/university, college, school level

  34. KEY ACTIVITIESin the context of Networking • Joining Efforts with support of ATIs • Sharing Experience through Conference, Workshops, Policy dialogues • Documenting events, e.g. Orissa Cyclone, Gujarat EQ, Kumbakonam Fire, Meerut Fire, Barmer Flood, Mumbai Floods etc • Editing Contents through knowledge Institutions (IDKN Model) • E-Learning e.g. VLE, Moodle Platform WBI Courses • E-Shishak will be launched soon.

  35. ACHIEVEMENTS • >400 training programmes & trained (both trainers & line stakeholders) • South Asia Policy Dialogue in August 2006 • First India Disaster Management Congress in Nov. 2006 • International Workshop “Risk to Resilience –Strategic Tools for DRR” • Central Sector Scheme; 30 “Disaster Management Centres” in different States in India • Incident Command System and MEPP Trainings including NDRF, Civil Defense, Paramilitary, etc. • Partnership with >50 international and national institutions/agencies • On-line Training Programmes with World Bank Institute, Washington. • National Programmes for Capacity Building of Engineers and Architects • Second India Disaster Management Congress in Nov. 4-6. 2009 )(800 delegates including 100 international)

  36. Related Policies • Disaster Management Policy (Draft) • Environmental Policy • Planning Commission Working Plan 2009-12 Environment & Forests • Land-use Policies • Agriculture Policy • Water Policy • Voluntary Sector Policy • WRD & Hydro-Power policy • Rural Development (land resources) • Housing Policy • Forest Policy • Statement of Climate Change • Right to Information • Map Policy

  37. Programmes (examples) • Disaster Risk Management Programme • National Emergency Communication Plan • Disaster Management Decision Support Programme • Natural Resources Data Management System NRDMS • Environmental Information System • APELL • JNURM • Integrated Coastal Zone Management • National River Conservation • National Wetland Programme • National Wasteland Programme • Rural employment • Mid-day meal scheme • Microfinance

  38. Strategic Tools Tools that help and/or implement policies • Project Appraisal Process • Policy Appraisal – SEA (of policy, plan, programmes) • EIA / REIA – DMP & EPP? • DRA as part of Project Appraisal process • Carrying capacity based planning • Risk based developmental planning • Cost-Benefit Analysis • Economic cost of impacts • Risk Auditing • Integration of Strategic Tools

  39. Integrated Environmental Management as Sustainable Solution to Disaster Risk Challenges

  40. envirosafe2007@gmail.com THANK YOU

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