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ENERGY TECHNOLOGY FUTURES: LONG TERM THINKING IN A SHORT TERM WORLD

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY FUTURES: LONG TERM THINKING IN A SHORT TERM WORLD. FEDERAL PARTNER IN TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER/CTN COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE WORKSHOP FEBRUARY 14, 2001 OTTAWA, ONTARIO. THE FUTURE CANNOT BE PREDICTED. …BUT FUTURES CAN BE INVENTED. 2. E TF CHALLENGE.

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ENERGY TECHNOLOGY FUTURES: LONG TERM THINKING IN A SHORT TERM WORLD

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  1. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY FUTURES: LONG TERM THINKING IN A SHORT TERM WORLD FEDERAL PARTNER IN TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER/CTN COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE WORKSHOP FEBRUARY 14, 2001 OTTAWA, ONTARIO

  2. THE FUTURE CANNOT BE PREDICTED... …BUT FUTURES CAN BE INVENTED 2

  3. ETF CHALLENGE • Think long term - what could be? • - 3 to 5 decades into the future • Move beyond incremental change • Question the way the system works and our views of it • Address policy issues through innovative technologies • Stimulate thought and ACTION

  4. WHYSCENARIOS? • NOT an extrapolation of current trends • Embraces qualitative perspectives • Allows integration of varied disciplines & perspectives • Allows identification of future trends, their merits & Canadian opportunities

  5. THE REAL CHALLENGES • Lack of comparative ‘history’ of similar activities • Bump up against the status quo • challenge ideas, priorities and current efforts • Context of work conflicts with department’s focus • Process of integration needs to be done up front

  6. RESOURCE COMMITMENT • Two year process covering • salaries (5) • office set up space, furniture computers, printers, fax & others • travel & consultation • scenario development (initial technology perspectives, facilitation, & follow up) • ~$300 K over 2 years • marketing/awareness • ~$50 K

  7. SCOPE OF ETF TO 2050 • Energy service demands: • buildings • industry • transport • energy production • Energy vectors & sources • Energy distribution & transmission • Cross-cutting technologies • GHG containment, disposal, and use 4

  8. INFORMATION SOURCES • Perspectives • Workshops • Laboratory Visits/Bilateral Discussions • over 800 inputs • The Web-Virtual Conference • over 6000 hits 5

  9. WORKSHOPS • Varied approaches • Provocative presentation • Open brainstorm • Leave the “Hat” at the door • IP not an issue • scope sufficiently long term • common issues • high enough level of detail 6

  10. OUTPUTS • Identify key drivers of change & how we can influence them • New way of looking at the relationship between society, technology economy and environment • Look at how emerging issues impact on current policy • Better definition of what government should be support in energy S&T

  11. Technology Options Knowledge Base Pre-Commercial Market Intelligence planning for R&D investment focus efforts shorten development cycles build new non-traditional partnerships identify skill sets capacity building literate clients industrial edge enhanced receptor capabilities OTHER BENEFITS

  12. RESULTS - POLICY IMPLICATIONS • Near-Term policy direction in: • Overall S&T investment • Energy & non-energy GHG management • Transportation energy use • Nuclear Power • Integration of renewable energy • Hydrogen • COP Negotiations/Targets • Longer Term • integration in strategic planning prcesses • policy, program and S&T direction

  13. LINKAGES • Advisory Unit to the Secretary General of the OECD, The Futures Planning Unit of the EU, Foresight Unit, UK, IEA • Commercial Links with US National Laboratory Network • Clean Coal Consortium • Biomass utilisation • Fuel Cell Research • Concrete durability using supercritical carbon dioxide

  14. STRATEGIC IDEAS & DIRECTIONS LONG-TERM PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS LIFE GOES ON VISION 10 YEARS IN TO FUTURE OVERALL POLICY, SCIENCE & STRATEGIC DIRECTION GRASPING AT STRAWS ETF FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR 2050 3 TO 5 YEAR STRATEGIC PLAN TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS CHANGE DRIVERS DEMOGRAPHICS TECHNOLOGY MACRO GLOBAL COME TOGETHER INDUSTRY & HIGH LEVEL ROAD MAPS, MONITOR, EVALUATE, CORRECT COURSE WHERE WE COULD BE & HOW IT AFFECTS OUR VISION WHERE WE SEE OURSELVES & HOW WE CAN GET THERE AN APPROACH TO STRATEGIC PLANNING TODAY DIRECTIONAL POLICIES & PRACTICES EG., SFT, BUDGET, MINISTER’S PRIORITIES CURRENT COMPONENTS, COMPETENCIES & CAPABILITIES, LINKAGES, INFO FLOW WHERE WE ARE NOW & WHAT WE ARE OPERATING WITH

  15. MAKING IT REAL • Development of Energy S&T Forward Plan • focus R&D investment & direction on future technology needs • Policy Development • re-think overall energy policy to ensure we have capacity to address long term issues • Future Fuels for North America • what fuels and policies will be needed by a sustainable transport sector

  16. WHAT WE LEARNED • Independent group - not biased • Engage & communicate • develop products from each stage • bring clients into the process • share information with all • Patience is a virtue! • You are never a prophet in your own land! • Integrate into strategic planning process

  17. www.nrcan.gc.ca/es/etf/ THE DIFFICULTY LIES, NOT IN THE NEW IDEAS... …BUT IN ESCAPING FROM THE OLD ONESJOHN MAYNARD KEYNES ENERGY TECHNOLOGY FUTURES: Scenarios for a Better Energy System

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