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A State of Flux

A State of Flux

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A State of Flux

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  1. A State of Flux Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer Saxo Bank A/S May 2014

  2. Ockham’s Razor • Stock Market lags real economy by three months • Interest rates leads real economy by nine months

  3. What did happen 9-12 month ago?

  4. What did happen 3 month ago?

  5. Germany the negative surprise….

  6. Germany the negative surprise….

  7. No more “easy money….?”

  8. The Classic correlation S&P & FED BS

  9. Tapering – marginal change?

  10. Valuations becoming real issue in the US

  11. Inflation is now unanchored…

  12. Forward guidance false?

  13. Our JABA model says…low in 2015-Q1

  14. Our biggest call: Yields will go to new lows..

  15. Global imbalances – global balances

  16. US rates to the rescue?…….

  17. China: Friend or foe for growth?….

  18. Iron ore leading growth…….

  19. Weaker global growth will hurt BRL & AUD

  20. The worlds growth engine is sputtering…

  21. Market Calls…..Earningsbasedprojection..

  22. Will equityfinallypay the price..?

  23. Macro Outlook in headlines • Positions: • Mega long fixed income (Q3-2013) – See new lows in yield • FX: Short AUDUSD(.8000 sub target),EURUSD(sub 1.2500) • Sell ZAR, TRY and IDR soon (all basket cases….w. no reform) • Equity: Long Israel + Russia vs. SPX (CAPE <10 vs. CAPE >24 (avg 13/14 – waiting for catalyst to short SPX & DAX (plus Club Med) • Monetary Policy: • ECB will disappoint – they love to talk…too much… • BOJ is cornered (USDJPY  92/93 • FED will taper the taper….. • Fight will be on deflation…..now unanchored • Economics: • Germany will go towards negative growth in Q4/Q1-2014/2015 • Fragile Eight: No reforms, elections – it’s time to sell….. • 2014: Another lost year • 2015 H2: The true recovery

  24. Thankyou!