South West Future Landscapes Programme

1. South West Future Landscapes Programme Lyndis Cole & Sally Parker Land Use Consultants

2. Overall aim of the South West Future Landscapes Programme “To develop an understanding of and responsibility for the landscape of the South West now and in the future, with strong engagement at all levels in pro-active and integrated planning for the landscape of the future – the maintenance and creation of a mosaic of diverse and distinctive landscapes in good condition that are widely valued for the range of services and benefits they provide for human well-being and ultimately for human survival in the face of climate change”. (aim subject to agreement by the Partnership)

3. Key objectives to deliver the aim • To understand how and why the landscapes of the South West have changed, and will change in the future. • To identify how current and future policy drivers and actions at the local and regional level can be used to ensure that change is for the benefit of landscape character, quality, and local distinctiveness. • To engage the general public and decision makers in understanding the causes and effects of landscape change and the role they can play in delivering the landscapes they want • To work towards matching the delivery of necessary services with the maintenance and creation of desired landscapes. • To develop tools that help planners and other decision-takers take account of landscape change when planning for the future. (link to separate contract)

4. Summary of the key elements of Phase 1 (led by LUC) • Scoping of available information on past and future forces for change acting on the region, and associated impacts on landscape (detailed in the Technical Report). • Review of examples of engagement tools already developed to illustrate landscape change (also included in the Technical Report). • Production of a set of ‘Project sheets’ for selected areas across the region which are considering or responding to landscape change. • Illustrated storylines of landscape change for four key landscape types found in the region – looking at the past, present and future, using artists’ impressions. • A Programme Brief detailing an ambitious programme of work for the Regional Landscape Partnership to take forward over the next five years (to deliver Phase 2).

5. Phase 1 outputs Information on past and future landscape change

6. Summary of PAST landscape change Agriculture • Peak in livestock numbers in 1970s, now returning to 1930 levels. • Steady increase in the area of non-food crops since mid-1980s. • 22% loss of hedgerows in Somerset between 1945-1994. • Decrease in area of traditional orchards from 34,000 ha in 1930 to 5,000 ha in 2007. Recent launch of a National Trust / Natural England project to halt loss, with funding from Countdown 2010 – national news story

7. PAST landscape change (cont.) Woodland • Area of woodland cover nearly doubled over last 100 years – particularly in Devon, Cornwall and Somerset, especially driven by the increase in conifer plantations. • The rate of new tree planting in the SW is significantly higher than any other region (around 1,500 hectares annually). • 50% loss in working wood pasture over last 50 years.

8. PAST landscape change (cont.) Historic environment • 45% decline in area of parkland – particular loss in Dorset Heaths (68%), Somerset Levels & Moors (55%) and Vale of Taunton & Quantock Fringes (>30%). • 35% of England’s ‘At Risk’ monuments are in the South West.

9. PAST landscape change (cont.) Population • 23% population increase 1971-2005. • Greatest increase in housing stock of any region (1991-2005) - >300,000 houses built in this period alone, many in rural areas. • In the Culm between the 1960s and 2007 there was an 800% increase in disturbed areas. The equivalent figure for the the Dorset/Wiltshire chalklands was 285%.

10. PAST landscape change (cont.) Renewable energy schemes • Renewable energy schemes now produce enough electricity to supply nearly 120,000 homes. • Currently 7 wind farms in Cornwall, produce 79% of the region’s wind energy.

11. Early 20th century view Late 20th century view Ladram Rocks, near Sidmouth. Used as part of a ‘Landscapes Old and New’ project for East Devon

12. Early 20th century view Late 20th century view Round Ball Hill, Honiton. Used as part of a ‘Landscapes Old and New’ project for East Devon

13. Summary of predicted FUTURE drivers for landscape change Climate change • Annual rainfall in the SW region expected to increase by 20% by 2050 and up to 30% by 2100. • Average daily temperatures in the SWregion are predicted to rise by 2 degrees (low emissions scenario) or 3 degrees (high emissions scenario) by 2050. • More frequent extreme weather events are expected and sea level rise in the South West could be higher than anywhere else in England – between 20 and 80 cm by the 2080s.

14. FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.) Population and development • Between 2006 and 2026 the population of the SW region is forecast to increase by 750,000 people– to 5.85 million. • Between 2006 and 2029 the number of households is expected to increase by 27%. • By 2026 there will be a 40% increase in the number of residents aged 75 and over. • Around 23,000 new dwellings a year will be needed up to 2026 to meet the scale of need.

15. FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.) Recreation and tourism • Longer, more reliable summers and warmer winters extending the tourist season. • Increased heatwaves and extreme weather in overseas tourism areas bringing an increase in domestic tourism. • Flexible working and healthy living policy agendas increasing the amount of leisure time available for outdoor recreation.

16. FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.) Agriculture • Policy drive towards multi-functional land use – the ‘ecosystem services’ approach. • Market-driven change – predictions of a forthcoming ‘energy crunch’ may lead to a significant decline in the use of artificial fertilisers. • Impacts and responses to climate change – flooding (wetland recreation), droughts (demand for irrigation), new pests/diseases, different growing conditions, new crops (including bioenergy/biofuels), and potential emphasis on food security.

17. FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.) Biodiversity • A policy emphasis on landscape-scale habitat management and restoration e.g. through South West Nature Map and Natural England’s Climate Change Study to: • Increase habitat and species resilience to climate change • Maintain and improve ecosystem service delivery • Reflect the public desire for the conservation of the characteristic habitats and species of the region.

18. FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.) Woodlands and forestry • Pests and diseases e.g. Processionary Moth and Red Band Needle Blight reducing the viability of commercial forestry. • Other pests/diseases affecting valued semi-natural woodlands – e.g. Oak dieback and Sudden Oak Death (latter also affecting beech) • Increase in summer drought leading to a decline in drought sensitive species especially beech. • Stormy conditions leading to increased frequency of wind throw (reintroduction of pollarding could reduce this). • Potential for unmanaged woodlands to be brought back into positive management under community schemes to provide wood fuel.

19. FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.) Historic environment • Increase in tourism at historic sites • Potential increase in storm damage, light-degradation, fungal and beetle damage to historic buildings. • Archaeology in the uplands could dry out in summer; sites in coastal locations may be lost as sea levels rise. • Changes to the landscape setting of heritage sites resulting from climate-driven vegetational shifts.

20. FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.) Renewable energy development (mitigation) • New targets through the Climate Change Act 2008 require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. • Current South West target is to generate 11-15% of all electricity needs from renewable sources by 2010 (Regen SW, 2003). • Current demand for new wind farms within the region focused on Devon (based on current applications in the planning system). • Demand for bioenergy crops / Short Rotation Coppice likely to increase.

21. FUTURE drivers for landscape change (cont.) Landfill, quarrying, water resources • Strict targets for a reduction in waste going to landfill – EU Landfill Directive. • Region forecasted to produce 510 million tonnes of primary aggregate (2005-2020) – the second highest of the English regions. • Increase in demand for water, predicted fall in supply of 2% from existing sources by the 2020s. • Potential salinity of borehole / river mouth extraction points due to sea level rise.

22. Natural England Climate Change Study in the Cumbria High Fells (2008) Use of computer software to modify a current photograph to show likely impacts of climate change: -increase in bracken -footpath erosion -upwards migration of heath

23. FUTURE Landscape Change – interactive tools

24. FUTURE Landscape Change – decision-making tools South West Nature Map (Somerset)

25. Phase 1 outputs Programme Brief for Phase 2

26. 10 proposed projects 1. A vision for the future landscapes of the South West 2. A classification of sub-regional landscape typologies 3. A compendium of ongoing trends and future forces for change 4. A South West Atlas of Landscape Change 5. Best practice examples of functional landscapes 6. Storylines of change at the sub-regional level 7. Storylines of change at the parish level • Landscape tools fit for the future • A variety of tools of engagement 10. Landscape monitoring

27. Project 1: A vision for the future landscapes of the South West • To develop a vision for the future landscape of the South West that sits beneath Natural England’s national Vision for Future Landscapes (that will be developed over the coming year). • This South West vision can provide an umbrella to more local visions that might be developed in the future.

28. Project 2: A classification of sub-regional typologies • To develop a clear spatial landscape framework or classification to define landscapes of similar character that are likely to perform similar functions / deliver the same range of services. • In turn this will provide a framework for identifying landscape change and future landscapes across the South West region. (TOP PRIORITY PROJECT)

29. Project 3: A compendium of trends and forces for change • Online resource of key research reports and the results of any relevant regional projects - • Could be hosted by other partner websites (e.g. South West Observatory) or on a dedicated website for the Programme - ‘South West Future Landscapes Hub’ • (LOW PRIORITY PROJECT)

30. Project 4: A South West Atlas of Landscape Change (optional) • To develop a GIS-based (ideally) interactive map of the South West giving spatial representation of landscape change over time. • This would link to the Atlas proposed for the protected landscapes of the South West and more local Atlases being developed by some of the protected landscapes in the region (e.g. Cornwall AONB Atlas).

31. Project 5: A Palette of Functional Areas and Features • To raise awareness of the range of important services provided by particular types of landscape and by key landscape features. This will be demonstrated through a series of practical exemplar place-based projects made up of: • existing best practice examples • new collaborative projects involving land managers and local communities working in partnership with key agencies.

32. Projects 6 and 7: Storylines of Landscape Change • This work will have two distinct purposes: (a) to develop a storyline of change from past to future in a number of distinct geographical areas with distinct and different landscapes, performing different functions; and (b) to explore approaches for planning for future landscapes. In addition, information will be produced that will contribute to long term monitoring. • Two scales: sub-regional and parish level

33. Project 8: Landscape Tools Fit for the Future • To ensure that landscape tools used to guide landscape management and planning decisions are ‘future proof’ and consider the full range of services and functions that landscapes will be expected to provide in the future.

34. Project 9: Range of engagement tools • Aprogramme website (‘South West Future Landscapes Hub’) • A video: developed at the outset of the Programme to promote involvement and interest in landscape change. • Leaflets and posters: published throughout the course of the Programme to initially advertise, then provide information on activity • PowerPoint presentations: updated throughout the course of the Programme to suit different audiences. • Workshops and annual events used to launch the programme, with annual events giving updates on the work of the programme. • Organised visits to see functioning future landscapes in practice. • An e-newsletter to keep people informed and engaged in the programme, circulated every six months

35. Project 10: Landscape Monitoring • The Regional Atlas of Landscape Change (Activity 4) • The Storyline of Change at the Sub-regional level (Activity 6) • The Storyline of Change at the Parish level (Activity 7) • Above activities will be able to add regional / local information to fill in important detail in other national and regional monitoring programmes

36. Project priorities As agreed with the Steering Group (to be confirmed with wider Partnership)

37. Inter-linkages between projects (Darker shading shows strongest links; note projects are, however, designed to be free-standing)

38. Phase 1 outputs Project sheets and Landscape change storylines

39. Project sheets

40. Landscape change storylines