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Markets for Electric Power Produced in Bulgaria Sofia – March 12, 2007

Markets for Electric Power Produced in Bulgaria Sofia – March 12, 2007. Krassimir Nenov, Commercial Operations Director Enel Maritza East 3 AD. Integration of European power markets. From national markets…. … towards one single European market. …..to regional markets…. North Pool.

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Markets for Electric Power Produced in Bulgaria Sofia – March 12, 2007

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  1. Markets for Electric Power Produced in BulgariaSofia – March 12, 2007 Krassimir Nenov, Commercial Operations Director Enel Maritza East 3 AD

  2. Integration of European power markets From national markets….. … towards one single European market …..to regional markets… North Pool North Pool UK IPS-UPS System DE UCTE System Centrel Central EU + Centrel + Italy FR RO EX JUG South East EU BG IT PT Iberia ES GR EU countries Non EU countries An on-going integration process across Europe

  3. 3 Sixth market in Europe as regional market 2005 Total internal demand (TWh) Germany Albania 556 6 Macedonia 8.1 France 482 11.2 Bosnia UK 343.3 16.6 Croatia Italy A regional market of significant size made up of small and interconnected national markets 330 32.5 Bulgaria 41.6 Spain 252 Serbia Romania 52.5 Balkans 221 52.6 Greece Installed capacity (GW) Germany 114.9 Albania 1.7 1.4 Macedonia France 116.7 3.7 Bosnia UK 78.5 3.8 Croatia Italy 79.5 8.7 Bulgaria 9.5 Spain Serbia 66.1 12.9 Romania 52 Balkans 10 Greece Source: Enel Analysis on UCTE data

  4. An interconnected system 750 MW Total NTC, GW Net Interchange 2005, TWh UA 1100 MW 700 MW HU 1100 MW 800 MW SI RO HR 1300 MW 600 MW MD 650 MW 900 MW BiH FRY 950 MW 700 MW BG 300 MW 400 MW 150 MW 500 MW FYROM TR AL 400 MW 200 MW Net transfer capacity GR IT Importing countries 500 MW Exporting countries Transit Countries Source: UCTE, Enel Analysis

  5. … with a significant mix differential 2005 data Oil & gas Coal/ lignite Nuclear Hydro • Differentiated mix in each country • Significant role of component of low cost generation (lignite / Hydro / Nuclear) • Cost spread reflected in import/export flows Capacity mix 1.7 3.8 12.9 3.7 8.7 1.4 9.5 10 100% = Romania Albania Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Maced. Serbia. Greece … and a further need of interconnections Source: Enel Analysis

  6. A resurging economy GDP CAGR ’00-’05 actual GDP CAGR ’06-’10 expected GDP CAGR ’11-’15 expected GDP USD/per capita, 2005 • Many countries recovering from 90’s crisis • More aggressive expectation for riskier countries • Slower growth pace for biggest markets (BG, RO, GR) Source: World Bank, Consensus Economics, Consensus Forecast, EIU

  7. .. with a significant demand growth potential Electricity Demand (TWh) Expected vs. historical growth rate 250 TWh CAGR +2.4% 2000 - 2005 Bulgaria 2006 - 2010 221 Twh CAGR +2.8% Romania 193 Twh Bosnia Greece Croazia Albania Fyrom Serbia Serbia. Macedonia Albania Greece Croatia Romania Bosnia Overall Bulgaria 2000 2005 2010 Source: UCTE, Enel Forecasting

  8. Project opportunities UA HU • Romania: • Conversion from oil to coal of Braila Plant (350MW) • Cernavoda Nuclear power plant, unit 3 and 4 construction (2x700 MW) • Rehabilitation of Lignite Complexes (Craiova 800MW, Rovinari 1100MW, Turceni 1500 MW) SI RO HR BiH FRY BG FYROM TR AL • Bulgaria: • Extension of Martiza East 3 lignite plant (700-800 MW) • Belene Nuclear power plant construction (2x1000MW) GR IT • Greece: • New CCGT (400MW) New opportunities account for 7000 MW of additional capacity

  9. Other projects in the ex-Yugoslavia region • Net transfer capacity • Importing countries CROZIA • CCGT at Zagreb • Coal at Plomin • Hydro power plants and wind fields • Exporting countries • Transit Countries SERBIA/Kosovo/Montenegro • Lignite at Kolubara, Kostolac, Kosovo and Plevija • Gas CHP at Novi San, Beograd and Subotica • Hydro power plants in all regions • HU • SI • HR BOSNIA • Lignite at Tuzla, Kakani, Bugojno, Kongora, Uglievik, Gacko • Hydro power plants • RO • BiH • FRY MACEDONIA • Lignite at Bitola site • Gas CHP in Skoplje • Hydro power plants in all regions ALBANIA • CCGT at Valona and Korca • Hydro power plants • BG • FYROM • AL Project capacity GW ….but most of these projects are not expected to be in operation before 2015 • GR Lignite Coal Gas/Oil Hydro Total Source: Enel Analysis

  10. Regional market: new assets market position (2015) Belene and Maritza East 3 Extension are extremely competitive on a Regional basis where they would serve as a base-load generators Greek CCGTs Romanian Lignite Bulgarian/Serbian Lignite Maritza East 3 Ext. Belene 8232 15294 18258 30064 37958 46414 Lignite Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro+CHP

  11. Drivers of an expanding energy market for SEE • Significant demand growth potential • Strong need for investment in new capacity • Additional connection grids with neighbouring countries • Early stages of market liberalization and privatization • Favorable environment for new entrants thanks to EU rules A growing and liberalizing macro-regional market

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