Crime & Poverty

1. Crime & Poverty • Do overall economic conditions affect crime? • Study times of economic depression • Look at crime over time, during periods of prosperity and downturns • Does unemployment affect crime? • Does economic inequality affect crime? • Compare crime rates in wealthy and poor areas • Is inequality more important than income? Are poor areas that exist in or near wealthy areas particularly affected? • Doesn’t address individual characteristics

2. Early studies • 1800’s France - Guerry • Wealthiest regions more property crime, less violent crime • Opportunities – more stuff to steal • Lack of education not related to crime • More education, more violence • 1800’s France - Quetelet • Men more likely to commit crime • Especially poor, unemployed, undereducated • Opportunities important • Poor areas had less crime • Crime more likely to happen in better off areas, by poor and unemployed • Inequality within richer areas might breed resentment • Crime consequence of moral character; virtues break down if poor

3. Crime and overall economic conditions • More crime during economic slumps • Pratt and Lowenkamp: During 1976 - 1994, homicides were negatively associated with economic activity • Contraindications • Great Depression (1928-1940) – Henry and Short • General crime rate does not seem to increase • Crimes of violence declined • Cho - 1970 - Percentage of people below poverty level in 49 largest cities not associated with seven FBI index crimes • During the 1960’s, as the economy expanded, crime and delinquency increased • During the 1990’s, as the economy expanded, crime and delinquency decreased

4. Crime and poverty • Strong association between poverty and crime • Ehrlich - 1940, 50, 60 - association between property crime and poor households • 1974 - Loftin and Hill - index of structural poverty • Infant mortality, education, income, single parent families • Strongly correlated with State homicide rates • 1990 - Lee - concentration of poverty is important • Stretsky et al - More concentrated the poverty, the higher the robbery and homicide rate

5. Unemployment and delinquency Hypothesis: Unemployment  poverty  crime • Adult unemployment effect on delinquency • Glaser and Rice: adult unemployment reduces delinquency, maybe because parents are home • Weatherburn and Lind: delinquency high when adult unemployment high • Youth unemployment effect on delinquency • Several studies report strong positive correlation between delinquency and youth unemployment • Ihlanfeldt -- More than 20 percent of difference in property crime between black and white neighborhoods caused by lack of job opportunities for youth in the latter

6. Unemployment and adult crime • By early 1980’s several studies demonstrated that unemployment and crime rose and fell together (weak relationship) • In a 1987 review of 63 studies, Chiricos found a significant positive relationship between unemployment and crime, especially after 1970 • More unemployment, more crime • Easier to discover in small units (e.g., cities) because they are more homogeneous than larger units (e.g., States and regions) • Disagreeing, Land, McCall and Cohen found the opposite for homicides • As unemployment increased, homicides decreased! • Land, Cantor and Russell found a weak negative relationship between unemployment and crime between 1960-1980 • As unemployment increased, crime decreased • Agreed that the positive relationship found by Chiricos is more likely to be found in smaller units of analysis and for property crimes

7. Unemployment Rate (percent) 1989-2008ages 16 years and overBureau of Labor Statistics

8. Crime Rates 1989 - 2008Uniform Crime Reports

9. Types of jobs and crime • White – 1970 -1990: decline of manufacturing jobs  increased poverty and unemployment  increased robberies, burglaries, drug offenses • PoliceIssues link - manufacturing jobs • Shihadeh – 1970 -1990: decline of low-skill jobs  increased poverty  increased violence

10. Problems in Interpreting Research on Economic Conditions

11. Problem #1: Poverty is subjective • Relative to locale • Differently measured • Unemployment is an unexact concept • People not actively seeking work are not counted • Count the under-employed, poorly paid dead-end jobs, bad working conditions • How people feel about their jobs is not measured

12. Problem #2: Economy and crime --Two contradictory theories, with support for each! • Traditional view: relationship between economic conditions and crime is negative (poverty causes crime) • Good economy, low crime; bad economy, high crime • Oppositional view: Positive relationship (crime is like any other economic activity) • Good economy, high crime; bad economy, low crime • Ploscowe - 1931: support for positive relationship • Increase of economic well-being during 150-year period accompanied by increase in crime • Good economy  greater criminal opportunities  more crime • Gurr – 1977: support for positive and negative relationships • Crime actually declined from 1840’s-1930’s • Later increases may be due to better police reporting • Different causal process at work in each time frame • 19th. Century - economic activity positively related to crime • 20th. Century - economic “distress” had no effect, but as total productivity increased, so did crime

13. Problem #3: Economic change has a delayed (lagged) effect on crime • Unemployment takes time to increase crime - unemployed don’t feel the full brunt of being out of work until other sources of support are exhausted • Perhaps there is no corresponding “lag time” for increased opportunities to commit crime - economic improvement immediately increases criminal opportunities • Cantor and Lang - 1946-1982 - US unemployment rates and crime index • Immediate “opportunity” effect and lagged “motivation” effect. As unemployment increased… • Robbery, burglary and theft immediately decreased but then increased the next year • Homicide and auto theft decreased, did not increase the next year • No effect on rape and assault

14. Problem #4: Determining the size of the unit that economic factors affect • Local conditions are very important • In economically stagnant inner cities, there may be declining amount of legal work and increasing amount of illegal work (e.g., dealing drugs) • Early involvement in crime and incarceration may limit later opportunities • Alienation and diminished expectations • Low-paying work is stigmatized • Violence substitutes for normal social controls • Once socialized into illegal activities, people may continue them

15. Problem #5: Determining which factors cause crime (problem of multicollinearity) • High crime areas have many factors that might cause crime • Poverty • Unemployment • Single-parent households • High density • Poor schools • Study by Land - the most important determinants of homicide were clustered in a single factor: “resource deprivation/affluence” • This factor includes measures for... • poverty & income inequality • percent African-American • Percent children not living with both parents

16. Problem #6: Distinguishing between poverty and economic inequality • Poverty: below a fixed level of income or material goods • Inequality: relative deprivation • Consistent findings • Economic inequality associated with homicide • Economic inequality associated with violent crime • Firearms violence strongly correlated with inequality after controlling for poverty and access to firearms • Is it a specific kind of inequality (e.g., white/black)? • Messner and Golden - 1992 - increased inequality between blacks and whites associated with homicide • Other studies report mixed results

17. Poverty and economic inequality --Conclusions • Overall inequality (gap between rich and poor) is associated with violent crime • Key factor may not be how many poor, but how many wealthy • When there are only poor people around, crime may be lower • Economics may have most direct affect on crime within the urban “underclass” - pockets of extreme poverty • Strong association between poverty and violence • Direct effect of poverty on crime is mediated by many other variables • High-crime communities have a host of factors - poverty, unemployment, single-parent households, poor schools • These factors may be more proximate causes of crime; e.g.Poverty  poor schools  unemployment  broken homes  crime