The Road Ahead Adaptation and Resilience in Uncertain Times

1. The Road AheadAdaptation and Resilience in Uncertain Times

2. Visions of the Future • "We look at the past through the prism of the present and try to discern the future." • Holocaust historian, Lucy Davidowicz • People tend to interpret the past and project onto the future a view that reinforces their current beliefs.

3. The Jetsons • We don’t need to change BAU as technology will find the answer. Human Progress is continuous. • Popular with people who tend to support the status quo.

4. The Progress Paradigm The idea of perpetual progress is relatively new Medieval/Renaissance period looked back to the classical period as the pinnacle of development from which mankind had fallen The Enlightenment – we know more about the world than anyone before us and we are learning more every day.

5. A Linear View of History Judeo Christian world view has a beginning, middle and end. Non-western religious views tend to be cyclical A Linear view not only involves divine providence in our lives but incorporates the idea of moving to some final destiny

6. 19th Century Progress Misinterpretation of Darwin – species evolve to more complex, better forms Evolution is not linear or hierarchical but we are conditioned to see it that way

7. Capitalism – freedom of thought and act frees humanity from constraints and anything is possible. • Coupled with inventions for mass production and the resources to make that production possible • Marxism – social evolution towards a socialist ideal was inevitable • possible due to the technological advances of the industrial revolution • Nature should be exploited for the good of all

8. 20th Century ProgressMore Bigger Better Faster Increased technological developments allowed for even faster extraction of natural resources Focus on time saving – resulting in massive increase in productivity Increase in productivity resulted in goods available for less cost – more people could buy more stuff Advertising, especially after WWII massively increased demand for manufactured goods

10. Components of the Progress Paradigm Technology will keep improving Technology will solve our problems Humanity will overcome war, disease, poverty If we run out of one resource we will find another to replace it Going backward or becoming less complex is unthinkable.

11. By mid century the Progress paradigm began to be questioned – the result was the environmental movement and environmental regulation • Policy makers still continue to promise continued growth and no diminishment of “The American Way of Life.”

12. Progress The Progress Paradigm rests on the foundation of available natural resources. Resources

13. As early as 1798, Thomas Malthus argues that the party couldn’t go on forever. However, advances and agriculture and fossil fuels changed everything because they made it possible to grow more food to support an every growing population. Technology seemed to provide the answer to the Malthusian dilemma Depleted Resources Progress

14. Population

16. History of Energy Use in the US

17. A finite system cannot support infinite growth

18. Mad Max • Overpopulation and over use of resources will create a Hobbesian, dog-eat-dog future and the collapse of civilization as we know it. • Appeals to people less invested in the status quo (with lots of guns and fast cars?) who favor an individualist perspective. (Right wing – anti-establishment)

19. Hobbiton • The exploitation of the earth and its resources will cause economic and social collapse but the current system will be replaced with a sustainable & more simple lifestyle • Appeals to people less invested in the status quo who oppose the current globalized, corporate centered economy and come from a communalist (Left-wing anti establishment)

20. The Rapture • All the problems we now face are signs that the end of History is near. The faithful will be raptured up to heaven, leaving the unfaithful to face the tribulations and the final battle between good and evil. Our use of resources really doesn’t make any difference • Appeals to some Evangelical Christians but a group which has been a very politically influential minority.

21. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” • Physicist Neils Bohr

22. “Earth Day is a holiday for liars….” The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate... Paul Ehrlich – The Population Bomb - 1960 Alan Caruba 4/21/08

23. The Hazards of Specific Predictions

24. Cassandra Syndrome Cassandra – someone who warns of impending disaster. Mythical Trojan prophetess given the gift of prophesy but cursed that no one would ever believe her. 'Cassandra dilemma' - one can see the most likely outcome of current trends and can warn people about what is happening, but the vast majority can not, or will not respond, and later if catastrophe occurs, they may even blame you, as if your prediction set the disaster in motion.

25. What people often forget is that Cassandra was right

26. Tectonic StressesThomas Homer-Dixon- The Upside of Down • Population stress arising from differences in the population growth rates between rich and poor societies, and from the spiraling growth of megacities in poor countries; • Energy stress —above all from the increasing scarcity of conventional oil; • Environmental stress from worsening damage to our land, water, forests, and fisheries; • Climate stress from changes in the makeup of our atmosphere; • Economic stress resulting from instabilities in the global economic system and ever-widening income gaps between rich and poor people

27. Stresses are interconnected and cannot be viewed separately Population Climate Peak oil Rich/Poor Environment

28. Synchronous Failure • Many things going wrong at once • Interconnected stresses that could be manageable in isolation become unmanageable in combination

29. Hurricanes + Lack of Infrastructure Investment+ Impoverished population +Governmental Incompetence

30. 9.0 Earthquake + 100ft Tsunami + partial nuclear meltdown

31. Heat and drought + increased development + dead trees

32. Policy Pyramid

33. Non- Linear Change and Black Swan Events • Change is not always incremental it can be abrupt, unexpected and severe • Basing expectations on what has been does not always prepare for what may be • “A turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement.” Nassim Taleb

35. How do we plan for uncertainty? • Insurance – only 2% of people experience a fire in their house in their lifetime but everyone with a mortgage has insurance. • Tsunami Preparation in Humboldt County • Planning and Education • Coordination and Practice

36. Adaptation and Resilience • Adaptation– a process of deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress. • Resilience – the ability to handle dynamic, unexpected changes without threatening to collapse. The capacity to absorb shocks and adapt to them.

37. Where we are now

38. Where we need to go Adaptation and Resilience

39. So… why aren’t we taking action to increase resiliency?

40. Roadblocks • Psychological • Technical • Economic • Political

41. Psychological Roadblocks • “An out of context problem” • A Preference for optimism • Deferring to Authority • Focus on the present rather than the future • Denial • Existential – It’s not happening • Consequential – OK its happening but its not serious • Fatalistic – OK its happening, its serious, but we can’t do anything about it

42. Technological Roadblocks • There is at present no substitute for fossil fuels that has the adequate • Scale • Storage • Transportability

43. Economic Roadblocks • People in the developing world seek to reach the levels of consumption of the developed world • Transition can be pricy! • A “healthy economy” requires continued high levels of resource consumption • Adaptation and resilience requires spending money at a time where austerity it a stated solution to the economic crisis

44. Political Roadblocks • Environmental Issues have become wedge issues in the US – partisan sorting • Both state and Federal Government are in policy gridlock • No one wins elections by delivering bad news

45. Can we get there from here?

46. Social Change 1.0 Command and Control (Sticks) Government laws and regulations Financial incentives Protests Problems with the current model Laws tend to be incremental (slow small steps) Incentives only work if people are inclined to do something anyway Protests point out what is wrong but do not create what is right

47. “Not only do we have to re-invent the world, we have to re-invent the process by which we re-invent the world.” David Gershon Social Change 2.0

48. The Starting point for change is the individual We change our institutions they don’t change us People need a vision of where they want to go to begin the journey These changes can be accelerated and reinforced with the right laws and financial incentives, but the process begins with us. Bottom Up not Top down

49. Social Change 2.0 Develop a vision of what you want to see happen Enlist the support and “buy in” by local government through a like minded individual Use their knowledge of the area to know how to design the program Use their status to overcome potential bureaucratic obstacles Recruit members of the community and train them in the model

50. From the individual…… “Taking personal responsibility to make the needed changes within ourselves and our communities is the foundation for changing our institutions, not the other way around.”