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Navigating Economic Challenges: Impacts of Aging Population and Education Investment in Oregon

The future of Oregon's economy faces significant challenges as low investment in education and high income tax rates threaten personal income levels. The U.S. and Oregon are anticipated to experience a slow, jobless recovery. With the Baby Boom generation aging, the 65+ population will increase by 46% from 2010 to 2020, straining Medicaid resources. Coupled with high health inflation and legacy costs from a poorly managed public pension system, the state must address these issues to ensure sustainable growth for its workforce and economy.

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Navigating Economic Challenges: Impacts of Aging Population and Education Investment in Oregon

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Presentation Transcript

  1. The Road Ahead

  2. Will we circle into a drain? • Low investments in education and high income tax rates threaten further erosion of personal income levels • The U.S. and Oregon economies appear poised for a slow, jobless recovery. • Aging of the Baby Boom generation will increase the age 65+ population by 46% during 2010-2020, putting upward pressure on Medicaid spending. • High health inflation will continue, which will drive up the costs of Medicaid and public employee compensation. • Legacy costs of a poorly managed/conceived public employee pension system have come due.

  3. Slow Economic Recovery 1990 1980 No change 2001 2007 State forecast

  4. The number of Oregonians aged 65+ will increase 46% during 2010-2020. Or about 60 per day.And, as they retire, they’ll take their diplomas and experience with them.

  5. Fewer workers to pay for an aging population

  6. The incoming workforce is less educated

  7. Legacy costs of a poorly designed and managed public pension system have come due

  8. Costs of an Aging Population will Hit Soon Source: ECONorthwest calculations using data from Mercer, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Health Affairs

  9. Decade of Deficits Expenditures (bns.) Revenues (bns.)

  10. With no sales tax and recent income tax increases, Oregon income and capital gains taxes are among the highest in the nation M 66

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