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International Implications of Bioenergy and Forests

International Implications of Bioenergy and Forests. Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum September, 2011 Brent Sohngen Ohio State University Adam Daigneault ( Landcare Research) Roger Sedjo (RFF). Can we increase the share of energy from wood?.

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International Implications of Bioenergy and Forests

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  1. International Implications of Bioenergy and Forests Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum September, 2011 Brent Sohngen Ohio State University Adam Daigneault (Landcare Research) Roger Sedjo (RFF)

  2. Can we increase the share of energy from wood? • Around 2% of total energy • 2 Quadrillion btus, 8 billion ft3, or 226 million m3 • Doubling to 4 Quads, or 4%, would require an additional 226 million m3 • Do we have it?

  3. How much more wood is possible?Net growth of US private forests

  4. Methods • Can source wood for biomass from timber or from slash • Add biomass energy into global land use model • Inlcude via regional demand functions for biomass energy or constraints. • Include costs for harvesting slash and transporting to mill. MC = τ + φ*q

  5. Biomass Constraints From US DOE Annual Energy Outlook, 2010

  6. Global Price Effect +2 to +5% effect on prices

  7. US Outputs

  8. US Imports

  9. Change in Carbon

  10. Results with Land Fixed

  11. Why is it so hard to increase output? • Marginal costs of extracting “residues” are high • Marginal costs of competing with alternatives • Marginal opportunity costs of increasing production. • Opportunity costs are much lower elsewhere

  12. US Carbon – Land Fixed

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