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UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin

UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin. Why are we here?. Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates. Why UKIP was a long-time coming (and may have a long way to run).

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UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin

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  1. UKIP and the Left Behind:Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the RightRobert Ford and Matthew Goodwin

  2. Why are we here? Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates

  3. Why UKIP was a long-time coming(and may have a long way to run)

  4. Decline of the British Working Class, 1964-2012 Source: BES 1964-83; BSA 1984-12; class measured using Goldthorpe–Heath 5-category class schema

  5. Rise of the Educated Middle Class, 1964-2012 British Election Studies 1964-1983; British Social Attitudes 1984-2012 Source:

  6. Class and educational divides in EU support... Source: British Social Attitudes 1993-2012

  7. Immigration divides us by class, education, and generation... Source: British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey 2004-13

  8. The working class feel more left out than ever before Source: British Social Attitudes 1986-2012

  9. What all this means: UKIP are mobilising the “Left behind”

  10. So who are the UKIP voters?

  11. UKIP’s base: male, pale, stale, and struggling

  12. The Brussels Plus: Not just single-issue Eurosceptics..

  13. They are very unhappy about both parties’ performance on immigration and the crisis…

  14. ....and very hostile to both parties’ leaders

  15. UKIP Support among Different Groups 2004-2013: “Doubling Down” on the Left Behind

  16. Labour’s 2015 problem

  17. UKIP is recruiting mainly former Cons…

  18. …from the dissatisfied groups Labour ought to be reconnecting with

  19. Labour’s post 2010 rebound is strongest where UKIP’s appeal is weakest

  20. Labour’s 2020 problem

  21. Incumbent party, top 100 UKIP-leaning seats

  22. What we just said in far more detail… @robfordmancs @GoodwinMJ

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