The Cost-Effectiveness of an Adaptive Radiosonde Observing Strategy for the United States

1. The Cost-Effectiveness of an Adaptive Radiosonde Observing Strategy for the United States Leah Kos Sara Lavas Lauryn Gonzalez Mentor: Dr. Michael Douglas, NSSL

2. Project Overview • Determine cost and accuracy of current radiosonde network • Research adaptive strategies • Find cost and accuracy of adaptive strategies • Compile data to find best solution

3. What do we mean by “adaptive”? • Adaptive Measurement Strategy: strategy that varies its spatial or temporal measurements to maximize its benefit-to-cost ratio

4. Budget Concerns • NOAA keeps receiving a tight budget • NWS requested $988.0 M in FY 2012 • Of this, + $5.0 M for GPS radiosondes • NWS requests $972.2 M for FY 2013 • Will result in downsized programs

5. LMS Radiosondes • Accuracy: • Pressure Sensor: ± 0.5 mb • Temperature Sensor: ± 0.2 ºC • Humidity Sensor: ± 2.0 % • Cost: $325 per launch • Price includes radiosonde, balloon and labor • Totals to $21,827,000 a year • 2 launches daily at 92 sites

6. Adaptive Strategies • THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) • SUMO (Small Unmanned Meteorological Observer) • TAMDAR (Tropospheric Aircraft Meteorological Data Reports)

7. THORPEX • What is it? • International research program determining if targeted observations will improve forecasts of high-impact weather and short range forecasts • Accuracy? • Target observations for tropical cyclones tracks are beneficial • Value of data in continental areas are positive yet small • Observations taken at target areas are more valuable than random areas • Good for? • Test validity of observation sites over ocean and land • Improve short range (1-3 day) forecasts

8. SUMO • What is it? • Cost-efficient measurement system for understanding the 3-D structure of the atmospheric boundary layer • Structure based off a commercial model airplane, has an autopilot system and sensors • Accuracy? • Concerns include time lag induced errors • Compared and verified with Vaisala RS92 Radiosonde

9. SUMO • Good For? • Can be used in remote areas and under harsh environmental conditions • Easy to handle, minimal infrastructures, “recoverable radiosonde”

10. TAMDAR • What is it? • Consists of a sensor on aircraft, aircraft tracking, and computer processing • Aircraft cruises at lower altitudes, below 500 hPa and flies into regional airports not serviced by AMDAR jets • Accuracy? • Improves 3-hr RUC forecasts • Reduces 3-hour forecast errors of: temperature by 0.4 K, wind by 0.25 m/s, and relative humidity by 3%

11. TAMDAR • Good For? • Fills in the lack of data from AMDAR (water vapor and below 20,000 ft) • Aids forecast accuracy by filling in the 12 hour gap between balloon launches

12. Private Sector Survey • Contacted meteorologists who: analyze data for legal and insurance claims, forecast for government and industry, specialize in air quality, forensic, and weather modification • Asked the following questions: • Does your company use radiosonde data? • Would more sounding data lead to a better forecast? How? • If less sounding data were given, how would that impact your profession?

13. Results • All use radiosonde data • Use NWS data • Focus on temperature and wind data • All would like more data • Would help aid forecast and hindcast accuracy and improve resolution of upper level profile • Adaptive network would help identify situations with large gradients of temperature or wind • Professions would all be negatively impacted

14. NWS Survey Questions • What is your name? • What forecast office are you employed at? • What is your position at that forecasting office? • How many times per year does your office launch special radiosonde soundings? • What synoptic or mesoscale conditions are most often responsible for your launch of a special sounding? • Do you coordinate your special radiosonde observation soundings with other forecast offices?

15. NWS Survey Questions • Would it be valuable to make occasional special soundings in locations different from the current NWS Radiosonde Observation Sites? Where might you like such soundings to be made that would likely add to your forecast area’s short-range forecast skill? • Any comments of the possible benefits (or problems with forecaster use) of special radiosonde observations on-demand at non-NWS sites? Any other thoughts related to possible adaptive observations would be welcomed

16. Responses by Region • Total: 86

17. Number of Special Soundings Per Year

18. Reasons for Special Soundings

19. Reasons For Special Soundings • Most Common: • Other (Pacific/Alaska): not enough data • Eastern: tropical • Western: severe weather • Central: severe weather • Southern: severe weather

20. NWS thoughts on adaptive observations… • Related to non-NWS sites: • Help to fill real time data gaps… more data the better for forecasting • Good idea in theory but budget would not allow • All schools with atmospheric science programs should be able to launch radiosondes • Asynoptic/non-routine times • Only helpful if forecasters aware of launch and can receive data easily into AWIPS/AWIPS II in a familiar format

21. NWS thoughts on adaptive observations… • Related to adaptive network idea: • Only launch when weather situation is in need of one to save money • Budget issue again, but if could find an alternative to save money would be beneficial • GPSMet sites from ESRL • Collect data as radiosonde descends addition to the data as it ascends

22. What we have left to do… • Compare cost-effectiveness of current and adaptive strategies • Further analyze the survey results • Determine best solution for fixed radiosonde budget

23. Questions?