Harvard University Kennedy School of Government

1. Knowledge for Development Seminar, Center for International Development Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 30, 2003 Seminar on Knowledge Systems for Development: A Survey of Core Questions and Answers "Science, Salt Water and Submarines: Doing R&D with the Navy" Harvard University Kennedy School of Government Presentation by RADM Richard F. Pittenger, USN (Ret.) Vice President for Marine Operations Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution October/November 2003

2. Prob. Success Prob. Detection Prob. Classification Prob. Localization Prob. Attack Prob. Kill = x x x x ASW as a Cumulative Conditional Probability Equation Probability of success is controlled by lowest probability. ASW Campaign is a game of small numbers – i.e. attrition (small individual encounter success rates add up to overall success). October/November 2003

3. ASW and Submarine WarfareForce Level Builder in Cold War • SSBN – Ballistic Missile Sub • The survivable leg of the triad (second strike) • New mission • SSN – Nuclear Attack Submarines • No longer an anti-commerce mission • Now focused on ASW • Fixed Wing Aircraft – Maritime Air (VP) • Key to winning World War II ASW Campaign • No mission without Soviet Submarine Threat • Surface Reluctant Players (“Gun Club”) • Shore • Jobs for: Navy Labs, Academia, Industry October/November 2003

4. Threat Perception • Soviet Submarine Construction Effort • Recollection of Second Battle of the Atlantic • Missiles Close to U. S. • Short / No warning (This one gets Congress’s attention.) • SOSUS Primary Task - I & W • Submarines Threaten Allied Sea Control and • thus U.S. National Security October/November 2003

5. Secrets to Success in PPBS Process President – “Brickbat” DOD Navy – Pentagon and Fleet Congress • Priority at all levels • Funding (ASW TOA FY ’86 ~ $14B) October/November 2003

6. Good RDT&E • Involves Both • Technology / Knowledge “Push” and • Requirement Pull (6.3  6.5) • The state of knowledge and the availability of • knowledgeable scientists, engineers, operators and • managers are key ingredients to developing • weapons systems. October/November 2003

7. Examples Technology/Knowledge (Push) Nuclear Powered Sub Ballistic Missile Deep Sound Channel Hydrophone and Cable Technology (AT&T) Acoustic Processing Oceanography Requirement (Pull) Survivable Strategic Missile Capability SOSUS October/November 2003

8. Examples (continued) • Technology/Knowledge • (Push) • Long Range Acoustic Path • CZ, BB • Platform Quieting • Sonar and Sonobuoy Design • Transducer • Processing • Transmission • Oceanography Requirement (Pull) ASW Sensors Sonars Sonobuoys Towed Arrays October/November 2003

9. Detection • Problem • U. S. faced with “another” • large submarine threat • Soviets > 300 subs • Combination of nuclear power and ballistic missile tilts Cold War balance. • Subs, in general, threaten national security. • Solution • Need: • Large area-basin scale sensors • as well as tactical sensors • Enabled by: • Discovery of long-range acoustic • propagation paths– Ewing • Approach: • SOSUS – fixed arrays • Follow-up forces • MPA • SSN • Surface and air sensors • exploiting CZ and BB October/November 2003

10. The Shadow Zone Below a 200-Foot Isothermal Layer Probing the Ocean for Submarines: A History of the AN/SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar, A Memoir by Thaddeus G. Bell. Page 12. Distribution authorized to the Depart. Of Defense and U.S. DoD contractors only; Administrative or Operational Use; 28 March 2003. Other requests for this document shall be referred to the Naval Sea Systems Command (PMS-411). October/November 2003

11. Deep-Ocean Sound Paths Exploitable by the SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar Probing the Ocean for Submarines: A History of the AN/SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar, A Memoir by Thaddeus G. Bell. Page 2. Distribution authorized to the Depart. Of Defense and U.S. DoD contractors only; Administrative or Operational Use; 28 March 2003. Other requests for this document shall be referred to the Naval Sea Systems Command (PMS-411). October/November 2003

12. Echo Versus Frequency Plots at Two Ranges Probing the Ocean for Submarines: A History of the AN/SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar, A Memoir by Thaddeus G. Bell. Page 22. Distribution authorized to the Depart. Of Defense and U.S. DoD contractors only; Administrative or Operational Use; 28 March 2003. Other requests for this document shall be referred to the Naval Sea Systems Command (PMS-411). Page 22. October/November 2003

13. Engagement • Problem • Soviet submarines • Anechoic coatings • Double hull construction • Countermeasures • Fleet Performance • Weapon delivery accuracy (CEP) • Torpedo sonar range • Warhead lethality • Solution • NEARTIP – Near-Term Torpedo • Improvement Program • Improve MK46 Torpedo • Slow down • Better processing, CCM • Better explosive warhead • Advanced Lightweight Torpedo • Major R&D program ~$4B • Push sonar, propulsion, guidance & control, warhead to state-of-the-art and beyond • Better Fleet Tactics • Presidential Priority October/November 2003