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Estimating Property Cycle Turning Points Through Dynamics Modelling

Investigate property cycle phases using cyclic behavior representations and alternative models for accurate turning point estimation. John MacFarlane, University of Western Sydney.

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Estimating Property Cycle Turning Points Through Dynamics Modelling

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  1. Property Cycle Dynamics Estimating Property Cycle Turning Points John MacFarlane School of Computing and Mathematics University of Western Sydney Email:j.macfarlane@uws.edu.au

  2. EXHIBIT 1: From Pyhrr et al 1999

  3. EXHIBIT 2: From Mueller and Laposa (1994)

  4. EXHIBIT 3: Sydney CBD Vacancy Rate (%), 1970 – 2008

  5. EXHIBIT 4: Equal Phases and symmetric

  6. EXHIBIT 5: Equal Phases but non-symmetric within each phase

  7. EXHIBIT 6: Asymmetric Phases

  8. EXHIBIT 10 Property cycle as a circle or clock

  9. Cycle Representation A CIRCLE (Clock) is the ideal representation for cyclic behaviour. Physics: Particle moving in a circle at constant angular velocity. The vertical displacement at time T gives standard sine/cosine curve. Easy for respondents to indicate where they believe we are on the cycle by indicating the appropriate time (3, 6 10, etc.)

  10. Australian Property Directions Survey

  11. Problems in Representing Cyclic Behaviour

  12. An Alternative Model Sine/Cosine Model: Particle moving in a circle at constant angular velocity. Alternative (generalised) Model: Angular velocity varies with the angle Easiest such model:

  13. Gives rise to periodic solutionsa = b = 0 reduces to sine/cosine modelNo closed form solution for the general case

  14. With no closed form expression for the alternative model, fitting needs to be done using a 2-equation iterative process

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