SlideServe
Télécharger Obtenir Pro
Menu
Accueil Pro
Préférences
ApparenceLight Aide et commentaires
© SlideServe · v2026

Modelling future climate in the Baltic region

romney avatar
romney
32 diapositives · 443 Views · Sep 23, 2014

Modelling future climate in the Baltic region. Ole Bøssing Christensen DMI. Ændring i global middeltemperatur 1860-2001 (CRU 2002). Change in radiative forcing since pre-industrial time. Radiative Forcing. NET: ~1,46 W/m 2. Scenarios. IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

#modelling future climate in the baltic region #modelling future climate in the baltic region ppt #powerpoint #presentation
Modelling future climate in the Baltic region - slide 1
01 / 32Modelling future climate in the Baltic region
1 / 17

Télécharger la présentation

Modelling future climate in the Baltic region
Une image / un lien ci-dessous est fourni (tel quel) pour télécharger la présentation

Politique de téléchargement : le contenu du site vous est fourni TEL QUEL pour votre information et votre usage personnel ; il ne peut être vendu, concédé sous licence ni partagé sur d’autres sites sans l’accord de son auteur.Le contenu vous est fourni TEL QUEL, pour votre information et votre usage personnel uniquement. Téléchargez la présentation en cliquant sur ce lien. Lors du téléchargement, si vous ne parvenez pas à télécharger une présentation, l’éditeur a peut-être supprimé le fichier de son serveur.Pendant le téléchargement, si vous ne parvenez pas à obtenir une présentation, le fichier a peut-être été supprimé par l’éditeur.

F I N

Plus de contenu associé

Transcription de la présentation

  1. Modelling future climate in the Baltic region Ole Bøssing Christensen DMI Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  2. Ændring i global middeltemperatur 1860-2001 (CRU 2002) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  3. Change in radiative forcing since pre-industrial time Radiative Forcing NET: ~1,46 W/m2 Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  4. Scenarios IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. • A1 represents aworld in rapid economic growth, but with a population reaching its maximum in about 50 years. Relatively rapid introduction of energy-efficient technologies. • A2 represents a world in varying rates of economic development and a continuous population growth. Initially the economic growth is smaller than A1. • B1 is a world where environmental technologies are introduced worldwide. Population growth will culminate in about 50 years. • B2 is a world with regional introduction of environmental technologies. There will be a continued but moderate population growth.. Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  5. Emission scenarios CO2 emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios. Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  6. CO2 (kuldioxid) Scenarios: ppmv CH4 (methan) Scenarios: Scenarios: N2O (lattergas) ppbv ppbv IPCC’s SRES scenarios(concentrations) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  7. Climate forcing Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  8. Feedbacks of the Climate System • Positive: • Water vapor • Ice-snow albedo effect • CO2 og CH4 uptake by oceans and land surfaces • Negative: • Infrared heat loss (T4) increasing with temperature • Uncertain: • Clouds Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  9. What is a climate model? A numerical model based on the fundamental laws of physics. The flow of atmosphere and oceans are described globally or regionally. A typical global model: ECHAM4/OPYC3. Atmospheric component consists of 128x64 horisontal boxes in 19 vertical layers. Time step around 20 minutes. The ocean model has 11 vertical layers and a variable horisontal resolution, about 55 km near the Equator. Also land surface and sea ice are described. A typical regional model: HIRHAM 110x104 lattice boxes of about 50 km distance, 19 vertical layers. Time step around 5 minutes. Ocean, sea ice and atmopspheric boundary conditions from a ”driving” model. Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  10. GCM 250 km HIRHAM 0.44° Resolution issues Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  11. Reconstruction of climate variations Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  12. Span of model results Change in 9 different models A2, winter Change in 9 different models B2, winter Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  13. Summary of expected changes Temperature Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  14. Summary of expected changes Precipitation Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  15. GCM RCM 2-meter Temperature Summer (C) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  16. RCM 2-meter Temperature Winter (C) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  17. d GCM RCM Precipitation Summer (mm/d) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  18. RCM Precipitation Winter (mm/d) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  19. GC Climate change Temperature Summer Climate change Precipitation Summer Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  20. Climate change Temperature Winter Climate change Precipitation Winter Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  21. Change in mean temperature ECHAM HIRHAM Summer Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  22. Change in mean precipitation (%) ECHAM HIRHAM July-August-September Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  23. Precipitation events andresolution JJA From Christensen et al. (2002) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  24. Change in summer precipitation JAS Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  25. n=1, f=95%, 99%, 99.9%(4.5/y – 1/y – 1/10y) n=1, f=95%, 99%,99.9%(4.5/y – 1/y – 1/10y) n=1, f=95%, 99%, 99.9%(4.5/y – 1/y – 1/10y) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  26. n=1, f=95%, 99%, 99.9%(4.5/y – 1/y – 1/10y) Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  27. f=99%, n=1, 5, 11 Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  28. Change in precipitation (%) Mean > 99% percentile for n = 5 HIRHAM July-August-September Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  29. River catchments Torneälven Luleå Kemi Ångerman 400 m contour Indalsälven Göta Vuoksi Daugava Oder Seine Neman Elbe Loire Vistula Rhein Garonne Donau Rhone Po Ebro Guadalquivir Hagemann personal communication Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  30. Mean precipitation mean exceeding the 95%,99%, and 99.9%percentile IPCC A2 (full line) and B2 (dotted line) scenarios. Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  31. Wind change Winter 10-m wind change Summer 10-m wind change Sønderborg 17/6/2003

  32. Further information • DOWNLOADS: • IPCC’s home page ( www.ipcc.ch ) contains many reports for free download • The DMI’s home page ( www.dmi.dk ), contains several papers, reports and translations regarding climate change and variations. • Three European projects are concerned with changes in extreme events. See the common web portal www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/ • BOOKS: • IPCC 2001: Climate Change 2001 - The Scientific Basis (edited by J. T. Houghton et al.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 881p. • Jørgensen m.fl. 2001: Climate Change Research, Danish Contributions. Gads Forlag, 408p. • Jørgensen, Halsnæs og Fenger 2002: Den Globale Opvarmning –bekæmpelse og tilpasning Gads Forlag ISBN: 87-12-03779-6 • Dansgaard, 1987: Klima, Vejr og Menneske, Geografforlaget, ISBN 87-7702-004-9. Sønderborg 17/6/2003