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Enhancing Non-Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in the South Pacific: RSMC Wellington Report

This report documents the findings and updates from the SWFDDP RSMT meeting held in Nadi, from August 26-29, 2013. It focuses on the updated wave criteria for the South Pacific and presents key statistics from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2013. It highlights significant weather events such as heavy rain and large waves, the effectiveness of forecasting guidance charts, and training initiatives for participating countries. Additionally, it addresses funding challenges and future developments necessary for improving forecasting capabilities in the region.

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Enhancing Non-Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in the South Pacific: RSMC Wellington Report

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  1. Steve Ready RSMC Wellington report for SWFDDP RSMT meeting Nadi, 26-29 August 2013

  2. MetConnect Pacific landing page Dashed line marks boundary for change in wave criteria – 2.5m/3.5m

  3. Current Criteria (old) for South Pacific Guidance charts HEAVY RAIN STRONG WIND LARGE WAVES TROPICAL CYCLONES (non-TC) (non-TC)(non-TC) ≥ 100mm in 24 hours≥30knots≥ 2.5m north of 15⁰Snow or later (> 50mm in 24 hours) (≥25knots) ≥ 3.5m at & south of 15⁰S (≥ 2.5m everywhere) Confidence factors Low (1 in 5 chance) or moderate (2 in 5 chance) or high (3 in 5 chance)

  4. South Pacific Guidance statistics for year 1 Aug 12 to 31 July 13 1 SPG day = 10 charts (e.g. Over the entire year, 3650 charts were produced)

  5. The following 4 slides illustrate the usefulness of the South Pacific Guidance charts produced by RSMC Wellington in providing a heads up of severe weather and wave eventsfrom 4 days out

  6. LARGE WAVE event 1: eastern Kiribati Long period waves Spring tides 29-Aug-2011 • Issued 2 days before Issued day before • Target day Evidence • Issued 4 days before • Issued 3 days before Wave damage observed on Teraina (Washington) Island near 4.71 North 160.76 West

  7. HEAVY RAIN event 4: VitiLevu, Fiji Extreme river & surface flooding 30-March-2012 • Issued 2 days before Issued day before • Target day Evidence • Issued 3 days before • Issued 4 days before 700mm in 3 days at Nadi Airport including 300mm in 12hrs on 30-March-2013

  8. SWFDDP web portal = MetConnect Pacific • Version 1 released for 1st round of in-country training between July and October 2009 and fully operational from 1 November 2009 • Version 2 released on 15 December 2010 • Only operational outage – 3 hours on 30 June 2012 due to server problems in USA • Version 3 to be developed in the near future includes • Overhaul of website graphics (new MetService branding) • Availability of ACCESS-TC products from Australian BoM • UKMO multi-model ensemble products to be loaded directly • Summary page of the latest Pacific Island synops • Access to SPG archive, archive of UKMO & RSMC Darwin images • Future reports to be completed online • Email alert for future news items • Version 3 has been made possible through the kind sponsorship of NOAA (Dan Beardsley) • Challenge: Finding suitable funding for other development work in the future

  9. SWFDDP Training • Visits carried out for all 9 participating countries between May and November 2012 (This was 2nd round for all except Niue) • Content covered all aspects of the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ including a ½ to 1 day workshop involving several emergency response agencies • Trainers – MetService, with help of US NOAA NWS staff in Samoa and Fiji • MetService is grateful to New Zealand Ministry for the Environment (MfE) New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) for funding the 2nd round of in-country training • Challenge: Finding resources to conduct similar training in the future probably before 2015/2016 cyclone season

  10. Training feedback • NMHSs – very appreciative of the in-country training and requested similar training in the near future • Gained a better understanding of the gaps in participating countries’ non-tropical cyclone warning systems • Verification tool can only be implemented properly once the non-tropical cyclone warning system is operating properly • Internet connectivity issues still affect a few countries • Small-scale convective disturbances resulting in flash flooding not handled by existing SWFDDP guidance • Emergency exercise helped forge closer ties between the local NMHS and agencies dependent on their services

  11. Concerns and challenges • Management of SWFDDP after the Full Demonstration phase • No hard criteria for progression to phase 4 - continuing development phase (or “operational” phase) • Long-term sustainable funding for SWFDDP especially for future development of MetConnect Pacific and training • Alternative delivery for MetConnect Pacific products • Success of SWFDDP will be measured by how well participating countries are prepared to step up and embrace new challenges e.g. a meaningful non-TC warning system

  12. Emergencies & business continuance • The Christchurch earthquakes and recent swarm of earthquakes affecting Wellington highlighted business continuance readiness • NZ forecast operations relocated to the Alternative Forecasting Centre (AFC) in Paraparaumu from 22 to 24 July 2013 following 6.5 earthquake in Wellington • RSMC Wellington was able to produce the South Pacific Guidance charts during this period • There are plans to relocate the AFC further away from Wellington; in Auckland.

  13. Alternative Forecast Centre, Unisys Building, Paraparaumu Auckland 50km

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