Ravaged by SARS: The Case of Hong Kong SARS
Cumulative Number of SARS Cases in Hong Kong (as of Sept 11, 2003) SARS
Daily New Number of SARS Cases (up to June 11, 2003) SARS Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Medical Staff (up to June 11, 2003) SARS Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Community Excl. Amoy Gardens(up to June 11, 2003) Suspension of classes Quarantine – contacts of suspected patients SARS Quarantine – contacts of confirmed patients Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
Daily New Number of SARS Cases – Amoy Gardens (up to June 11, 2003) Residents of Block E were being moved into holiday villages SARS Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
Total Mortality Rate due to SARS (up to June 11, 2003) Mortality Rate among Discharged & Deaths Mortality Rate among All cases SARS Source: HKSAR Government press releases.
Total Mortality Rate due to SARS by Age Groups (as on Sept 1, 2003) 299 deaths as at 1pm, Sept 1 Assumption: the age distribution of all cases is the same as that reported on Jun 6 SARS Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong
Case Fatality Rate by Gender (as on Sept 1, 2003) SARS Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong.
Case Fatality Rate by Age Groups (as on Sept 1, 2003) SARS Source: Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Hong Kong.
Economic Fallout SARS is an exogenous NEGATIVE demand shock to the aggregate demand. ?? SARS
Losses from SARS Large Initial Estimates Hong Kong Federation of Restaurant and Related Trades Mid April 50 restaurants closed temporarily Hong Kong Retail Management Association Early April Retail sales fell by 50% Cathay Pacific Airways Mid April Estimated loss per day is US$3mn; Cancellation of flights rose from 10% in late-March to over 40% Cinema Association Mid April Revenue in March dropped by 47% SARS
Retail Sales SARS
Cross-Border Truck Traffic (Mar 1, 2003 – Sept 8, 2003) Lok Ma Chau Inbound Outbound SARS
Number of Air Passenger Arrival and Departure (Mar 1, 2003 – Jun 30, 2003) Total Departure Total Arrival SARS
Aircraft Movement at the Hong Kong Airport (Mar 1, 2003 – Aug 31, 2003) SARS
Risk Premium of Hong Kong Dollar (Mar 1, 2002 – Jul 31, 2003) SARS Note: Risk Premium = (1-Year Forward – Spot) 10,000 Source: Datastream.
Stock Market Indices SARS
HK$ 11.8b Relief Measures • Salaries tax rebate: 2.3b • Concessions on rents, rates, water and other charges for a quarter • Temporary jobs and temporary training for unemployed workers: 430m • Loan guarantee fund: 3.5b • Disease control: 1.5b • Revival: 1b SARS
Other Relief Packages On April 25, the Airport Authority offered a relief package worth HK$ 363m to airlines, retailers, caterers and franchisees badly hurt by SARS: • $100m worth of reductions for some charges • $263m worth of interest free deferred payments SARS
Contingent Measures On May 25, less than 48 hours after the WHO lifted its travel advisory on Hong Kong, the Airport Authority announced a multi-million dollar revitalization package: • Airlines reinstating cancelled flights would enjoy a discount on landing charge, depending on load factor: SARS
Contingent Measures • For existing flights, more passengers carried (i.e. higher load factor) would result in higher discount in landing charge, also up to 50%. For example, a 10-percentage point increase in load factor will result in 10% discount on landing charge. SARS
Main Lessons • Information dissemination • Infection control measures • Environmental hygiene • Cross-border cooperation SARS