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TANKAN as a tool for forecasting economic condition in Japan

2. TANKAN" is a short-term economic survey of enterprises by Bank of JapanTo provide an accurate picture of business trends of enterprises in Japan, and to contribute to the appropriate implementation of our forw

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TANKAN as a tool for forecasting economic condition in Japan

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    1. 1 TANKAN as a tool for forecasting economic condition in Japan

    2. 2 1. Outline of TANKAN Survey

    3. 3 2. Features of TANKAN Survey

    4. 4

    5. 5

    6. 6 3. Comparison with key economic values Analysis of revision rate can be available for forecasting some of GDP componets. - Sales, Consumption, Exports, - Profits, Private Investments etc. Especially, revision rate of the fixed Investment is widely considered as important information of current and future economic condition.

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    8. 8 4. Problems and Future Issues Improvement of response rates of annual projection - Response rate of predicted value decreases in March because ... a. more enterprises are not able to forecast the next fiscal year, especially in this crisis b. more listed enterprises are enforcing governance on compliance c. they are reducing redundant personnel Treatment for missing value - TANKAN adopts cold-deck imputation. - Overestimation of sales,profits, and fixed investment after this financial crisis

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    10. 10 Reference Web-site: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/theme/research/stat/tk/index.htm Explanation (Jun. 7, 2007) FAQ (Mar. 2, 2007) Releases Notice of changes

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