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Putting Immigration Reform To The Test

HART. RESEARCH. A. S. S. O. C. I. A. T. E. S. Putting Immigration Reform To The Test. Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for. Telephone survey among 1,608 voters in four key states (405 AR, 401 CO, 401 MO, 401 OH), Conducted April 14 – 18, 2010. Key Survey Findings.

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Putting Immigration Reform To The Test

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  1. HART RESEARCH A S S O C I A T E S Putting Immigration Reform To The Test Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for Telephone survey among 1,608 voters in four key states (405 AR, 401 CO, 401 MO, 401 OH), Conducted April 14 – 18, 2010

  2. Key Survey Findings • The survey tested public support for a comprehensive immigration reform plan in four moderate-conservative states: Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio. • The plan was described as an Obama/Democratic plan and subjected to very strong Republican criticisms throughout the survey. • After equal exposure to criticisms and Democratic responses, voters in these states support reform by a solid 14-point margin, with clear majority support in Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio, while Arkansas voters are evenly divided. • In every state, confidence in the Democrats to handle the immigration issue grows considerably after voters hear the plan and subsequent debate.

  3. Democrat-controlled Congress Republican-controlled Congress Approve Disapprove Survey Conducted On Challenging Political Terrain Preferred Outcome for 2010 Congressional Elections Barack Obama’s Job Approval WantDemo-crats tocontrol 29% 40% 34% 43% WantRepub-licans tocontrol 47% 38% 46% 38% Dis-approve 57% 46% 52% 42% Approve 34% 43% 40% 50% Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio All voters All voters On average, these states went for McCain by 50% to 49% in 2008.

  4. Description of Main Elements: Approve • Strengthens border security • Requires employers to ensure all employees legal; companies that employ illegal immigrants face steep fines and penalties • Illegal immigrants already in the U.S. required to register for legal status, learn English, pay taxes, or face deportation • Establishes process to increase legal immigration into the U.S. only when employers are unable to fill job positions with citizens/legal residents Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio 66% 69% 69% 67% Strong Support For Obama/Democratic Immigration Reform Plan Plan Supported by Obama, Most Democrats, Some Republicans All Voters 67% 24% Strongly 31% Strongly 13% Approve Disapprove

  5. This is an unfair political attack This is a fair criticism Attack #1: Republicans Oppose This “Amnesty” Plan Most Republicans in Congress oppose this immigration plan and say it is really just an amnesty plan for illegal immigrants who broke the law. All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio

  6. Strong Republican Criticism Of Plan Concerns 4 in 10 Voters All Voters REPUBLICANS say this plan is really just another amnesty proposal that gives a slap on the wrist to people who have been breaking our laws for years. It rewards people who came into the country illegally by giving them citizen-ship and taxpayer-funded benefits, like the new Obama health care plan. It allows millions of illegal workers to compete with American citizens for hard-to-find jobs when 15 million of our citizens are unemployed. And it opens the floodgates to millions more coming in, because the 12 million illegal immigrants who receive amnesty will then bring in their family members still living overseas. 41% Very convincing 27% Very/fairlyconvincing

  7. But Democratic Message Is RatedMore Convincing All Voters DEMOCRATS say they are offering a tough, fair, and practical plan to get the broken immigration system under control. We must secure our borders and crack down on employers that hire illegal immigrants to drive down wages. It is unacceptable to have 12 million people in our country who are outside the system. We must require illegal immigrants to register for legal status, pay their taxes, learn English, and pass criminal background checks to remain in the country and work toward citizenship. Those who have a criminal record or refuse to register should be deported. 56% 41% Very convincing 32% Very convincing 27% Dem Message GOP Attack #1 Very/fairly convincing

  8. Agree more with Republican statement Agree more with Democratic statement Attack #2: Border Security First REPUBLICANS say a secure border is essential for our national security, so before we do anything else we must secure our borders. Only after the border is sealed should we begin taking steps to deal with the illegal immigrants already here. DEMOCRATS say strengthening border security is essential, and our plan does that, but that's only part of the solution. Fixing our broken immigration system also means cracking down on illegal hiring and requiring illegal immigrants to become legal taxpayers. . +17 +20 +13 +11 -1 All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio

  9. Agree more with Republican statement Agree more with Democratic statement Attack #3: Amnesty By Another Name REPUBLICANS say this is just am-nesty with a new name. The Demo-crats claim they are being tough on immigration, but their plan rewards millions of illegal immigrants who broke the law, at the expense of others who waited in their home country and played by the rules. DEMOCRATS say this is not am-nesty. Our plan will require those here illegally to pay a fine and taxes, learn English, and register to become legal. Anyone who fails a criminal background check or refus-es to register will be sent home. +13 +23 +13 +17 +1 All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio

  10. Agree more with Republican statement Agree more with Democratic statement Attack #4: Now Is Not The Time REPUBLICANS say with 15 million Americans out of work, now is not the time to increase immigration and make it easier for illegal immigrants to stay here. We should deport illegal immigrants because they're taking our jobs, not reward them with amnesty. DEMOCRATS say America should decide who gets to live in our country, but politicians need to be straight with the American people about the 12 million illegal immi-grants already here. Our plan will turn those willing to work hard and play by the rules into taxpayers, so they pay their fair share of taxes. +12 -12 +15 +3 -2 All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio

  11. Agree more with Republican statement Agree more with Democratic statement Attack #5: Will Cost Taxpayers Billions REPUBLICANS say this plan is going to cost American taxpayers billions of dollars and further increase the budget deficit. Once immigrants receive amnesty, they will be eligible for even more taxpayer-funded services, like the Obama health care plan. And millions of new immigrants will put even more pressure on schools, hospitals, and other public services. DEMOCRATS say our immigration reform plan will require immigrants and their employers to pay their full and fair share of taxes, which will result in billions in new revenues and reduce the deficit. Every day we delay requiring illegal immi-grants to get legal and pay taxes is another day the American taxpayer picks up the tab. +13 -7 -1 +4 +10 All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio

  12. Somewhat Strongly Somewhat Strongly APPROVE DISAPPROVE Bottom Line: Voters Favor Plan By 14-point Margin After Debate Final Support for Immigration Reform Proposal +27 +20 +11 57% 56% +14 53% 52% 43% 43% 42% 38% 36% 30% All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio

  13. Bottom Line: Voters Favor Plan By 14-point Margin After Debate Final Support for Immigration Reform Proposal, Among Key Subgroups Approve 52% 86% 45% 22% 86% 24% 50% 82% 66% 27% Disapprove 38% 8% 39% 68% 8% 66% 33% 13% 24% 62% Differential +14 +78 +6 -46 +78 -42 +17 +69 +42 -35 All voters Democrats Independents Republicans Preferred Majority in Congress Democrats Republicans No preference Liberals Moderates Conservatives

  14. Final Reading Initial Reading Demadvan-tage +4 -5 +9 +2 +14 Demadvan-tage -12 -20 -11 -20 -1 Demo-crats 38% 31% 40% 41% 41% Repub-licans 34% 36% 31% 39% 27% Demo-crats 24% 21% 23% 22% 28% Repub-licans 36% 41% 32% 42% 29% Democrats Improve Position On Immigration In Every State Which party would do a better job handling illegal immigration? All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio

  15. Required Legal Status Is Plan’s Strongest Provision, Not A Vulnerability Most Convincing Reason to Support Immigration Reform Plan Immigrants will be required to get legal and pay their fair share of taxes It cracks down on employers who hire illegal immigrants It improves border security

  16. HART RESEARCH A S S O C I A T E S Putting Immigration Reform To The Test Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for Telephone survey among 1,608 voters in four key states (405 AR, 401 CO, 401 MO, 401 OH), Conducted April 14 – 18, 2010

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