Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia

1. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia Post Gu ’ 09 Assessment Analysis FSEDC Meeting August 21, 2009 Nairobi, Kenya EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. FSNAU Post Gu ’09 AssessmentOverall Timeline

3. FSNAU Gu ’09 AssessmentPartner Participation Number of People Participating by Agency Food Security Field Assessment - Total 88 Total Number of Participating Partner Agencies (FS + Nut) 102 Local NGOs 47 Int’l NGO’s 20 Local Authority 12 Ministries 15 UN 5 Int’l 3 Total Number of People Field (FS) & Workshop – Total 111 Local Authority 10 Ministries 13 Local NGOs 42 International NGOs 12 UN Agencies 35 Analysis Workshop - Total 23 FEWSNET 3 JRC-MARS 2 WFP 14 OCHA 2 CEFA 1 DEG GARAS 1

4. Gu ’08/09 Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Locations

5. Sector Analysis • Summary Results

6. Climate Performance of the Gu ’09 Rains • Gu ‘09 Seasonal Rains • Start on time (late March/ early April) • Ended early - in mid May in many parts of the country • Overall Performance - mixed, but largely below normal, especially in key pastoral regions of the north and central • Areas of Poor Rainfall: • Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug, Sool, Nugal, Togdheer, Sanaag and parts of Galbeed • Parts of Lower Juba, North Gedo, and northern parts of Bakool • Areas of Near Normal Rainfall • Bay, Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle • Parts of Bakool, and south Gedo • Hagaa Seasonal Rains • Good hagaa rains in Juba, and Shabelle and parts of Bay regions • Juba and Shabelle planted off season crop (maize and sesame). • Shabelle & Juba River Levels - below normal rainfall in Ethiopian highlands • Rain failure in northern Kenya – leading to abnormal livestock in-migration into Juba

7. Climate Crop/vegetation condition has been good in Bay, Juba and Shabelle NVDI AVHRR Anomaly June, 2009 Climate Gu ‘ 09 Vegetation Condition Source: FSAU /FEWSNET

8. Climate Emerging Drought in Northern Pastoral Areas Nugaal Valley, Vegetation conditions (NDVI) July 1981- June 2009 • Three consecutive seasons of below-normal rainfall – emerging drought • Pasture and grazing conditions deteriorated to an alarming degree, • NDVI 36-month average deviation normal; lower than 1990/92 & 2001/03 droughts

9. Climate Deepening Drought in Central Pastoral Areas

10. Civil Insecurity • Civil Insecurity Trends (Jan. – July ‘09) • Precarious and mixed situation (Jan. – April) • Slight improvement in some areas, but further deterioration in other areas • Deterioration Since May ‘09 • Worsened in several areas of southern and central Somalia including Mogadishu, Belet Weyne, Elbur and Hara-dhere • With significant impact on both urban and rural • Fresh fighting exploded in Mogadishu between insurgents and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), • Worst fighting seen in months, causing both civilian deaths and massive displacement within the country and towards refugee camps of Kenya • Main impact is in the main towns and on humanitarian operations Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

11. Ongoing & Likely to Increase: • Direct Impacts • Deaths, Injuries, human rights abuses • Destruction of Assets (Public & Private) • Increased Population Displacement – 1.4 million IDPs (40% increase since Jan. ‘09) • Direct targeting of humanitarian and reduction of aid workers and responses • Indirect Impact: • Disruptions of trade within the country and across regional borders (for example Ethiopia-Somalia) and likely price increase • Restrictions of livestock migration between clans boundaries in Central/ Hiran/parts of M. Shabelle and difficult of the natural resource sharing (water, pasture and grazing) • Further restrictions of humanitarian space • Declining social support among livelihoods and wealth groups Civil Insecurity • Deterioration Since May ‘09 • Resource-based conflict between clans and sub-clans, especially in drought areas (e.g. Central) • Improved Access and security situation of the ordinary people improved in some areas (e.g. L. Shabelle) • Continued Incidents of sea piracy have since January, despite multinational naval forces and efforts of the local people

12. Civil Insecurity Most Likely Scenario (July- Dec. ’09) • Increased Likelihood of further Confrontation between different religious forces and TFG and different clans • Increased localized civil insecurity and clan tensions • Increased resource based conflicts, banditry and marine piracy • Kenyan border closure affecting IDP population movement and cross border trade mainly cattle and other commodities • Main Areas of Risk: Mogadishu, Bay, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug including Galkacyo, Gedo and Juba regions • Main Impact: Mainly urban areas and trade movements in conflict areas, more limited direct impact on rural populations.

13. Livestock Somalia: Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July ‘09

14. Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

15. Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

16. Livestock Water Availability Water trucked in Hawd Hargeisa Early depletion of water–SIP Afmadow Empty Communal Dam in Hawd AbudwaK Dasa empty water catchment – Elwaq - Gedo Empty Berkads– Sool Plateau - Qardho Empty Teed communal water catchment- North Huddur

17. Livestock Pastoral Migration Using Different Means of Transport Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Gedo Motorized out migration from Nugal Valley In migration from Gedo Using Pack camels Middle Shebelle migrating from to L/Shebelle Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Ox

18. Livestock Livestock Body Conditions & Pasture: Camel & Cattle Average cattle body condition in Juba Poor pasture & camel body condition in Nugal Valley Emaciated camel body condition in Dh/mareeb Poor camel body condition–B/Jajdid/Tayeglow Dead sheep Agropastoral W/Galbeed Good camel calving at Qorioley/L. Shebelle

19. Livestock

20. Livestock Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Cattle (SoSh/SLSh) Trends in Local Cattle Prices Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Goat (SoSh/SLSh) Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Goat (SoSh/SLSh)

21. Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices and Terms of Trade Livestock

22. Livestock Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera & Bossaso Total Annual Livestock Exports Compared to 5 year Average Berbera & Bossaso: Trend in Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

23. LivestockCarcass Meat Exported: Jan – Jul. 2009

24. Agriculture Gu ‘09 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia

25. Gu’07 Cereal Prodction Estimates in Southern Somalia Agriculture Rice and Off-Season Cereal Estimates in Southern Somalia

26. Agriculture Cereal Production Plus Off-Season in Southern Somalia

27. AgricultureTrends in Cereal Production (no off season) , Southern Somalia Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2009) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2009)

28. Agriculture Regional Cereal Contributions Maize Production Gu’09 Regional Contribution Regional Contribution Gu ’09 Cereal Production Sorghum Production Gu’09 Regional Contribution

29. Agriculture Gu Karan Crop Establishment Estimates

30. AgricultureTrends in Gu-Karan Cereal Production, Somaliland

31. 1. Poor Sorghum Establishment. Garabis, Hargeysa, W. Galbeed, July ’092. Sorghum Crop Failure with limited fodder harvested by the Owner. Bulo Burte, Hiran, July ‘09. 3. Poor Riverine Maize Crop due to water stress. Moyka village, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, July ‘09 Agriculture Gu ‘09Poor Crops 1 2 3

32. Agriculture Gu ‘09 Off-Season Good Crops 1. Good Sorghum Crop. Finka Weer, Sakow,M. Juba, July,’09 2. Good Rainfed Maize Crop. K50, Marka, L. Shabelle, July 2009 3. Good Sorghum Crop. Boodaale, Burhakaba, Bay, July ‘09. 1 2 3

33. Agriculture Cash Crop Production Estimates in Southern Somalia

34. Agriculture Gu ‘09 Cash Crops and Other income Activities Vegetable production_Middle shabelle Fodder Collection, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, July ’09. Good Banana and Cucumber Crops. Jilib, Middle Juba, July ‘09. Good Lettuce and Rice Crop behind. Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, July ‘09. Good Rain-fed Sesame Crop. Sakow, Middle Juba, July ‘09 Fodder Market. Jowhar. Miiddle Shabelle, July ‘09

35. Agriculture Cereal Flow Map

36. Agriculture Commercial Cereal Import Trends (2005-2008) • MT 2009 (Jan. –July) • 417,534 MT • 118% of year 2008 (352,385MT) • 99% of 3-year average (423,085MT)

37. AgricultureAnnual Cereal Balance Sheet – June 2009 to May 2010 Local Cereal Production and Food Aid Availability in Southern Regions

38. Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (SoSh/SLSH) Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor (kg of cereal/daily wage)

39. Trends in Exchange Rates Markets • Factors Affecting: • Depreciation – Since Jan. ’07 to Sept ‘08 • Excessive printing of SoSh • High demand of USD • Low remittance • Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling • Speculation and expectations • Appreciation – Since Oct. ‘08 • Significant increase in USD • Piracy • Proceeds from livestock sales • Cessation SOSH printing • Slowdown of business activities and exports Monthly Exchange Rates - SoSh and SlSh to USD

40. Markets Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates Shabelle Region: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate • Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices • Devaluation of SoSh (Imports expensive) • Increased Global Prices • High Importation Costs (Piracy/Fuel/Taxes) • High Transportation Costs • Low Supply • Disrupted Market Activities • Reduced Trade Flows • Low Substitute Commodity • Trade Collusion • Tariffs and Taxations Central: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate

41. Markets Consumer Price Index (Min. Expenditure Basket)

42. Markets Trends in Cereal Prices, Wage Rates and TOT (SoSh) Northeast South

43. Markets Comparison of Rice Price in Mogadishu and International Asia Markets; January 2007 – July 2009

44. Impact of Gu ’09 Performance on Gender • During normal seasons most pastoral activities (e.g. looking after animals, fetching water and firewood, sale of livestock products and food purchase) are done by women, while these are managed by men during dry seasons • Huge livestock migration (including lactating animals) in search of pasture and water resulted in family splitting with women and children remaining behind • Jidbaale, July‘09 • Qandhicilay, July‘09 • Jidbaale, July‘09 • Abandoned women and children in the drought affected settlements, Hawd of Sool, July ‘09

45. Continued… • Main effects on women: • Lack of milk production/consumption, affecting the nutritional status of women and children as evidenced by nutritional surveys (‘ critical to very critical’ situation in Gedo, Central/Hiran, northern Bakool) • Loss of control on the income from productive activities, such as livestock product & crop sales • Lack of access to the social support for women left behind • Increased burden due to fetching water, fuel and wood from long distances %

46. Nutrition Overview Gu ’09

47. Nutrition Nutrition Information Sources Gu ’09 (April – July) • Nutrition Surveys • 33 detailed nutrition surveys conducted (All FSNAU includes, 23 SMART, 4 LQAS, 5 exhaustive) • 17 focused on repeating livelihood level surveys from 6 and 12 months ago for South Central • 3 focused on concerning areas in northwest / northeast from Deyr analysis • 4 focused on district / regional (Belet Weyne, Adale, Galgadud & Mudug) • 8 focused on IDP populations (Hargeisa, Berbera, Burao, Garowe, Gardo, Galkahyo, Bossasso, Afgooye & Merka) • 1 focused on vulnerable urban populations (Bossasso) • Rapid Assessments using MUAC: (137 sites & 11,904 children 6-59months) • Predominantly, NW. NE, Mogadishu & Belet Weyne • Conducted in 46 urban centres (n=4740) • Conducted in 91 rural settlements (n=7164) • Health Centre Monitoring • Collected from 100 health centres from all regions (irregular in places e.g. Bakool) • Related Selective Feeding Centre Data • Information from partners: Central, Hiran, Bakool, Bay, Juba and Mogadishu –patchy and limited due to interrupted programming e.g. IMC, ACF • Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deterioration) • Disease outbreaks e.g. malaria, AWD outbreaks, Hiran, Central, NE, NW • Programme access disruption: Bakool, Bay, Central, Gedo • Displacement; in and out of Mogadishu

48. Summary of Key Findings Northwest : Confirmation of improvement in West Golis from Very Critical to Serious. Critical in East Golis and Guban & Karkar. Serious with risk to deterioration in other areas, still concerns IDP. Hot spot in south Toghdeer Northeast: Deterioration to Critical in Guban & Karkar and Serious in Nugal. IDP populations remain Very Critical. Central & Hiran: Sustained Critical in Addun, and Hawd (slight improvement in Hawd but not sig.) Cow pea belt and Coastal Deeh stable at Serious. Hiran sustained Critical in riverine and Very Critical (deterioration) in agro pastoral. Bay/ Bakool: Bay agropastoral deterioration to Very Critical, Bakool agropastoral improvement to Serious and Bakool Pastoral sustained Very Critical. Shabelles: Sustained Serious in IDPs and riverine slight deterioration (not sig) to Critical in Agropastoral. Rapid MUAC assessment shows Very Critical in Mogadishu. Gedo:Sustained Very Critical in pastoral & riverine. Slight improvement to Critical in agropastoral Juba – Deterioration to Very Critical in agropastoral and pastoral – likely linked to disease outbreak – stable in riverine at Serious

49. Gu 2009 Nutrition Survey Results Overview Crude and Under 5 yrs mortality rates generally stable with exception of Shabelle AP, Juba AP & Riverine and Gedo AP which were at alert levels

50. NutritionTrends in levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (WHO GS) – Gu 2009 The national median rate is 19% GAM and 4.6% SAM , which means almost 1 in 5 children acutely malnourished and 1 in 20 severely malnourished.