Submission on QELROs

1. Submission on QELROs • EU and • AOSIS

2. Formula to define the EU QELRO for 2013 - 2020 Total allowed emissions (2013-2020) = QELRO x base year emissions x 8 (length of commitment period) QELRO (2013-2020) = Total allowed emissions / (base year emissions x 8 (length of commitment period)) Information on EU QELROs In order to define the QELRO (2013-2020) the following is required: • Total allowed emissions : determined by • EU Legislation • Base year emissions • Length of the commitment period = 8

4. EU LULUCF sector not covered under EU legislation. EU QELRO calculation excludes use of credits from LULUCF sinks (RMUs). • Even without any restrictions on carry-over of AAUs, no impact on environmental integrity of EU legislation. • AAU surplus could affect the environmental integrity of the Protocol if not addressed appropriately. • EU legislation using IPCC AR2 GWP (not AR4). • EU intends to fulfill its commitment jointly with the EU Member States, as well as with Croatia and Iceland according to Accession Treaties. Expected impacts of accession on the QELRO estimate are very limited and would not affect the • effort required to meet the CP2 emission budget. Additional clarifications about EU determining itsQELRO

5. The EU’s offer to step up to -30% • EU stands by offer to move to a 30% reduction by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, as part of a global and comprehensive agreement for the period beyond 2012, provided that other developed countries commit themselves to comparable emission reductions and developing countries contribute adequately according to their responsibilities and respective capabilities. • Ambition of QELROs is part of a wider global context: Linked to ambition in the LCA and the ADP process to raise ambition. • EU proposal for a review of Annex B QELROs and a simplified procedure for a Party to strengthen its QELRO.

6. AOSIS submission on QELROs Annex I proposed QELROs are not consistent with necessary emission reduction pathways • Proposed Rule set for translation of pledges to QUELROs needed • To be adopted, • Commitments must be either consistent with the most ambitious end of Parties' pledged emission reduction ranges, or even more ambitious. • 2. CP2 QELRCs and assigned amounts must be established using a linear trajectory from the CP1 QELRC. • 3. No Annex I Party should be permitted to present a CP2 QELRO for adoption that is either: (1) above its 1990 • emission levels; or (2) above the most recently verified year of emissions inventory data, whichever is • lower. • 4. Commitments must be established for a five-year commitment period from 2013 to 2017 to avoid locking in insufficient ambition from Annex I Parties for an 8-year period.

7. Results • Commitments under this proposed rule set would deliver an “aggregate QELRO” of 77 (23% below 1990 level in 2015) for 2013-2017 CP, for parties that have expressed their willingness to participate in 2CP • AOSIS seeks an aggregate QELRO of 75 (25% below 1990 level in 2015) for 2013-2017 to achieve straight line trajectory to -45% by 2020 • With Russia and Japan included under this rule set as well, a 25% reduction below 1990 levels in 2015 could be achieved in aggregate; however with the current proposed effort from the United States and Canada together, this cannot be achieved • Falls short of consistency with IPCC AR4’s 25-40% range, due to absence of certain players and inadequacy of current proposed targets • Inclusion of all players with adequate QELROs would allow achievement of 1.5 and 2 degree consistent pathways.