The Advent of Smart Driving Technology: Implications and Opportunities for the

1. The Advent of Smart Driving Technology: Implications and Opportunities for the Port Authority of NY & NJ by Alain L. Kornhauser, Ph.D.Professor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at Port Authority NY & NJ New York City July, 2013

2. The Automobile’s 1st 125 Years (1886-2011) Benz Circa 2011 Benz patent 1886 1st Automobile Delivered: Enormous Personal Freedom & Mobility But…Safe Operation Requires Continuous Vigilance

3. Good News: NY_NJ Region: Excellent Roadway Infrastructure Bridges & Tunnels most actively used in the nation (GWB ~ 300k Veh/Day) NJ Ranks 45th; NY 46th in traffic fatalities/VMT (higher is better) ~1.0 per 108 VMT (2006, http://www.census.gov/statab/ranks/rank39.html) (best is Mass@ 0.8) NJ Ranks 37th; NY 34th “Worst Driver’s in US” by The Daily Beast Infrastructure can’t do much about “careless/inattentive”

4. We Love the Freedom & Mobility But…Continuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers

5. Txtng while driving is out of control…

6. TravelTainment Industry Wants Everyone’sAttention

7. http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/NHTSA_Hendricks2001_UnsafeDrivingActs.pdfhttp://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/NHTSA_Hendricks2001_UnsafeDrivingActs.pdf In In 717 out of 723 accidents ((99%) “In 717 out of 723 crashes (99%), a driver behavioral error caused or contributed to the crash”

8. Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012

9. Response is Laudable Kirkland, WA But… Not Likely to be Effective

10. What AboutSmart Driving Technology?

11. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation Level 0 – No-Automation. The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls (brake, steering, throttle, and motive power) at all times, and is solely responsible for monitoring the roadway and for safe operation of all vehicle controls. Vehicles that have certain driver support/convenience systems but do not have control authority over steering, braking, or throttle would still be considered “level 0” vehicles. Examples include systems that provide only warnings • Level 1 – Function-specific Automation: Automation at this level involves one or more specific control functions; if multiple functions are automated, they operate independently from each other. The driver has overall control, and is solely responsible for safe operation, the driver. The vehicle’s automated system may assist or augment the driver in operating one of the primary controls – either steering or braking/throttle controls (but not both). • Level 2 - Combined Function Automation: Automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. Vehicles at this level of automation can utilize shared authority when the driver cedes active primary control in certain limited driving situations. The driver is still responsible for monitoring the roadway and safe operation and is expected to be available for control at all times and on short notice. • Level 3 - Limited Self-Driving Automation: Vehicles at this level of automation enable the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions. • Level 4 - Full Self-Driving Automation: The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an .

12. Where Are We Now?R&D “Level 3 Semi Self-Driving Automation”

13. Has drive ~ 500,000 miles with “Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation” But…Hardware too expensive and Reliance on 3D Google Maps is “non-elegant” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE

14. Where Are We Now? Operational in ExclusiveEnvironments “Level 4- Full Self-Driving Automation” “-” indicates exclusive environment

15. APM Automated People Movers and a growing number of Driverless Metros Beijing Paris Milan Now exist in essentially every Major Airport( Inc. 2 at PANYNJ facilities)

16. Personal Rapid Transit: Morgantown (1975 - ) Today… Remains a critical mobility system & expansion being planned > 25M Driverless VMT Zero serious accidents

17. And Today… Video > 1M Driverless VMT Zero accidents Masdar & Heathrow are operational

18. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0RCSX95QmE • Driverless Trucks in Australian & Chilean Mines

19. “Exclusive” Parking Facility Volvo Self-Parking Car Prototype

20. Where Are We Now? Operational Bus Transit “Level 0+ No Automation, Driver Assistance ”

21. Bus 2.0: Initial Demonstration of Transit-based Driver Assistance (Level 0+ , no control, only warning) Fleet of 10 Gillig low floor buses Morning and evening express services 22 mile (one-way) travel distance Reliable travel times in all weather and traffic conditions

22. Bus 2.0: Transit-based Driver AssistanceHow Do They Do It? It Just Works!

23. Where Are We Now? Available in ShowRooms for Consumers “Level 2- Combined Automation wit Constant Vig1lance ”

24. BAS-Plus • Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering  ) • Intelligent Drive (active steering  ) Volvo Truck Emergency braking

25. More on Google: Levandowski Presentation DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research

26. With Mercedes as the Market Leader in “Level 2-” and an incremental price tag that can be absorbed by a Price Leading Insurance Company, then other automakers will be enticed to follow which should lead to: • Viral adoption by the car buying public and Fleet owners (Rental & Motor Carriers) • “Moore’s Law type of price/performance improvement • Market-driven Transition to “Level 2” and “Level 3” at same or even lower price structure • Adoption and enhancement rates that are comparable to that enjoyed by airbags (With likely a comparable hick-up)

27. Implications of Viral Consumer Adoption of Level 2, 3 & 4- Technologies to PA NY&NJ:

28. Implications on PANYNJ • Level 2 & 3 technologies represent new “customer operating characteristics” that the PANYNJ will need to accommodate appropriately • May mean modification of lane markings and signage/information dissemination • Modification of communications protocols • Creation of higher throughput “Managed Lanes” • Implications of Fleet Adoption of Level 2 w/4- capabilities • Airports (Autonomous parking “Level 4-” feature) • New “Automated Valet” Pick-up/Drop-off/Parking configuration • Modification of Rental Car Facilities • Automation of air-side activities (Very structured: just like an automated parking facility) • baggage distribution • Air-side bus operation • Plane towing • Port Facilities • Land-side container movement • Port-Intermodal rail transfer

29. Application of Smart Driving Technology (Level 2-)to New Jersey Buses?

30. The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System • Fact:For over 40 years New Jersey has had the World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System! • It Consists of: • Efficient Boarding/Alighting @ Port Authority Bus Terminal • 223 Departure Gates • Readily Accommodates 700 Buses/hr

31. The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System • Fact:For over 40 years New Jersey has had the World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System! • It Consists of: • Efficient Boarding/Alighting @ PA Bus Terminal • Direct Access/Egress to Exclusive Lanes in the Lincoln Tunnel • 3+ HOV Lanes on the NJ Turnpike that are, by default, essentially bus-only • Many Strategically Located Park&Ride Lots

32. The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System • Pieces are Connected by: • “495-viaduct” Counter-flow Exclusive Bus Lane (XBL) • Lane Segregation is by Removable Plastic Peg • Yet exceedingly Safe • 3 (?) accidents in 41 years, no fatalities.

33. NJ Transit’s Self Insurance

34. PANYNJ Can Lead by: • add Smart Driving Technology to the 3,000 buses… • even at an incremental $30,000/bus this is < $100M • Can be paid for by the halving of the halving of the $13m/yr self-insurance for the 15 year bus life. • Could achieve sustained 3.0 second headways • Increases practical throughput by 50% • from 700 -> 1,000 buses/hr; 35,000 -> 50,000 pax/hr • Increased passenger capacity comparable to what would have been provided by $10B ARC rail tunnel • Institutionally manageable: • All Express Buses are acquired according to NJT Specs. • Facilities (XBL, LT, PABT) are controlled by PANY&NJDoT • Ideal test facility available: • Ft. Monmouth

35. A Perfect Storm Opportunity for PANYNJ PABT in desperate need of “rehabilitation” XBL at capacity “Helix” due for “rehabilitation” Desperately need: Increased late afternoon in-bound capacity for busses New bus procurement cycle begins in 2 years Test facility available @ Ft. Monmouth

36. Improving The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System Concept Not New: Concept Makes Even More Sense Now!

37. Discussion! Thank You alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com

38. Assorted Videos of Self-Driving Cars http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/1_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D0ZN2tPihQ&feature=player_embedded http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/2_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ3s_cdk_yE&feature=player_embedded http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/3_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ridS396W2BY&feature=player_detailpage http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/VolvoPlatooningConcept.wmv http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/4_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4