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Innovative Water Supply Forecasting Tools Launching This December

The NOAA National Weather Service in Boise, Idaho, is excited to announce the upcoming launch of a new design for water supply forecasting tools, ready in December. These interactive resources will enhance long-range seasonal river volume forecasts, utilizing advanced statistical methods and regression techniques across 168 locations. The partnership with NRCS ensures coordinated forecasts, while the Ensemble Stream Flow Prediction (ESP) method leverages extensive NWS River Forecast System data. We welcome feedback on decision-making tools to better serve hydrology models using historical temperature and precipitation data.

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Innovative Water Supply Forecasting Tools Launching This December

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  1. NOAA/NWS Water Supply Web Page Jay P. Breidenbach Sr. Hydrologist NOAA /National Weather Service Boise, Idaho

  2. NOAA/NWS Water Supply Web Page • New design will be ready in December • New interactive forecast and research tools • Partnerships and feedback

  3. Long Range Seasonal River Volume Forecasts • Statistical Water Supply • Regression techniques • 168 forecast locations • Coordinated forecasts with NRCS • Ensemble Stream Flow Prediction (ESP) • Uses very long runs of NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) • Future Temperature and Precipitation is unknown beyond ~ 10 days • Assume that what happened in the past represents the range of what could happen in the future on any given year and use historical temperature and precipitation observations as future input into hydrology model. • Generate output in probabilistic format

  4. www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

  5. www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

  6. www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

  7. Seasonal Evolution

  8. Comparison with Similar Years

  9. www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

  10. www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

  11. Monthly Ensemble Means and Distributions

  12. Forcing with specific year or ENSO condition.

  13. Cumulative Excedence Probability

  14. www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

  15. www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

  16. www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

  17. 50 year stream flow simulations Shift in average annual hydrograph

  18. www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

  19. Feedback • What types of decisions do you need to make? • What types of tools do you need to help make those decisions? • Developing partnerships to display other types and sources of forecasts.

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