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Uncertainty in Aerosol Emissions and Climate Attribution Models

Validate climate attribution models by reconstructing historical aerosol emissions and testing against temperature changes. Explore sources of uncertainty in past emissions and recommend comparisons for accurate estimations. Evaluate aerosol forcing using observational and model data for better insights into climate sensitivity.

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Uncertainty in Aerosol Emissions and Climate Attribution Models

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  1. Uncertainty in aerosol emissions Joyce E. Penner University of Michigan Presented to UNFCC Expert meeting London September 24-26, 2002

  2. Validation of climate attribution models • Use IPCC recommended methods for deriving direct and indirect forcing from fossil fuel emissions (These have been tested by comparison with present day surface measurements and total optical depth): • SO42- • BC • OC • Reconstruct historical emissions • Test with change in global or hemispheric surface temperature

  3. Sources of uncertainty in past aerosol emissions • Reconstructed historical fuel use by sector • Assumed historical emission factors by technology development

  4. Example: Coal use by sector for OECD (breakdown not available for non-OECD) • Hard coal • Energy sector • Transformation • Industry sector • Transport sector • Other sectors (residential) • Lignite • Brown coal coke • Coke-oven coke • Gas coke • Hard coal briquettes • Lignite briquettes • Charcoal

  5. Total coal use reconstructed from: UN Data tapes and Formula based on production, etc. ES, ESAB, ESY, WES (consumption data)

  6. Total lignite use reconstructed from: UN Data tapes ES, ESAB, ESY, WES

  7. Reconstructed sulfur emissions

  8. Coal residential Lignite residential 7 - 12 16 - 4.6 Example: Range of estimated emission factors for BC for developing world (g/kg): Cooke - Bond (quote in Bond)

  9. Power generation Industry Res. Coal Residential other Transport diesel Transport other Total 0.12 - 1.54 0.29 - 1.19 0.9 - 0.64 0.18 - 0.50 0.51 - 2.83 0.19 - 0.11 2.19 - 6.81 Estimated emissions of BC (Tg/yr): Bond Cooke These new emissions underestimate BC when used in models

  10. BC emissions from fossil fuels (using Cooke emissions factors)

  11. Recommend that IPCC should conduct: • Comparison of fuel reconstruction by: • Ardenne, Liousse, Bond, Penner, LeFohn, Marland, Smith, Novakov - include regional emissions estimates (Reddy for India) • Comparison of emission factors • Derivation of recommended historical emissions and uncertainty range • Continued evaluation of aerosol forcing using models compared to observations • Open question: Evaluation of forcing by comparison with hemispheric temperature trends?

  12. Open questions • Can we use comparison with hemispheric temperature trends to evaluate historical aerosol forcing? • How well do we need to know the aerosol forcing and ozone forcing to derive the climate sensitivity? • How do we treat historical biomass burning emissions?

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