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Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Emission Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed

Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Emission Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed. Presentation to GB/PS Research Conference John Newhook / Derek Jennejohn April 1, 2003. Why do we do Emission Inventories & Forecasts?.

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Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Emission Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed

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  1. Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Emission Inventory for theLower Fraser Valley Airshed Presentation to GB/PS Research Conference John Newhook / Derek Jennejohn April 1, 2003

  2. Why do we do Emission Inventories & Forecasts? • Air Quality Management is mandated to GVRD by the BC Waste Management Act • Tells us where we have been (progress evaluation), and where we are heading • Identifies Major Sources -- AQ Goals • Used by AQ Modellers at Environment Canada to forecast future Air Quality • Fundamental basis for an updated AQMP

  3. Lower Fraser Valley Airshed

  4. “Smog-Forming Pollutants” • 8 Common Air Contaminants inventoried • For simplification, we added together 5 air contaminants which contribute to ozone and fine particulate matter formation, and to visibility impairment - SMOG. • NOX, SOX, VOC, PM2.5, and NH3

  5. Notes & Observations • Forecast looks different than previous (1995) version – a little more “flat” • Forecast does not incorporate any proposed measures, only those that are final • Proposed federal measures to reduce nonroad and solvent emissions not included • Could include in future update • Other potential emission sources not included here, for example • Sumas2, BP Cherry Point, Intalco

  6. Conclusions • After initial decline, “Smog Forming Pollutants” expected to increase after 2015 • Marine sources, followed by agriculture are Top 2 “SFP” emitters after 2015 • Important to ascertain the importance of NH3 in secondary PM formation – limiting reagent? • GHG increasing steadily from 1990 to 42% above 1990 by 2010 in GVRD/FVRD • Can’t be complacent – CWS & Kyoto

  7. Next Steps • Forecast could be updated following: • Release of “Canadianized” MOBILE6 Model • EPA release of new NONROAD model • Work with marine sector to better define activity and emissions • Other methodology changes, regulatory activity • Phase 2 Forecast could address: • Proposed Regulations (federal, regional) • Other emission reduction measures

  8. Next Steps (cont’d) • Forecast used by AQ modellers at Environment Canada to forecast future air quality • Continue active participation in Georgia Basin / Puget Sound International Airshed Partnership • Develop Workplan for development of a new AQMP

  9. The End • Any Questions?

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