1. Goldratt’s TOCThinking Process Using the TOC Thinking Process to Identify Problems, Develop Alternatives, and Implement Solutions Ed D. Walker II Department of Management Langdale College of Business Administration Valdosta State University

2. Tools created by Eli Goldratt • What to change? • Current Reality Tree • To what to change? • Evaporating Cloud • Future Reality Tree & Negative Branch • How to change? • Prerequisite Tree • Transition Tree

3. The Future Reality Tree & Negative Branch Reservation • Today we will focus on the second question • To What to Change?

4. We Have an Injection from the Evaporating Cloud. Now What? • We must check to see whether the injection(s) remove(s) all of the UDEs in our CRT. • Additionally we must be sure that the injection doesn’t cause any UDEs when implemented.

5. Definitions - FRT • Future Reality Tree -- a logic-based tool for constructing and testing potential solutions before implementation. The objectives are to (1) develop, expand, and complete the solution, and (2) identify and solve or prevent new problems created by implementing the solution (APICS Dictionary, p. 35.)

6. Definition -- NBR • Negative Branch Reservation -- a logic- based tool using cause-and-effect relationships to identify the possible negative effects created by the implementation of the solution.

7. Purpose of the FRT • Enables effectiveness testing of new ideas BEFORE committing resources to implementation. • Determines whether the proposed changes will have unintended consequences. • Serves as the initial planning tool for changing the course of the future.

8. Assumptions of the FRT • System components are interdependent. A change in one affects others. • Change has both intended and unintended effects. • Unintended effects can be anticipated. • Some changes cause more problems than they solve. • Ideas do not become solutions until they have been validated.

9. FRT in a Nutshell • The FRT is used to test possible solutions BEFORE implementation. • The desired outcome is to turn the original UDEs from the CRT into their opposites, (Desirable Effects) • Additionally, the NBR exposes weaknesses in the solution.

10. Simple Example of FRT

11. Simple Example of NBR

12. A complex Solution may require several Injections

13. Another NBR

14. Trimming the NBRRequires another injection

15. Building the FRT • Gather all of the information and materials. • Formulate the desired effects. • Positive, not neutral • Use present tense • Lay out Desired Effects • Add the injection(s) at the bottom. • Fill in the gaps (building upward) • Add additional injections as necessary. • Build reinforcing loops if possible. • Look for and trim NBRs